Commodity market report
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50 Pages

United States gas markets long-term outlook H1 2016

United States gas markets long-term outlook H1 2016

Report summary

Breakevens continue to fall, yet we don't expect US production to scale up as quickly over the next decade as we did a year ago, for both supply and demand reasons. Questions about infrastructure development, slower global economic growth and new competition from renewables hold back market size and production growth. 

What's included?

This report includes 8 file(s)

  • United States gas markets long-term outlook H1 2016 PDF - 1.78 MB 50 Pages, 2 Tables, 55 Figures
  • nags lto supply breakout spring 2016.xls XLS - 754.50 KB
  • nags lto supply and demand balances spring 2016.xls XLS - 949.50 KB
  • nags lto infrastructure spring 2016.xls XLS - 188.50 KB
  • nags lto lng breakout spring 2016.xls XLS - 819.50 KB
  • nags lto ngv breakout spring 2016.xls XLS - 665.00 KB
  • nags lto price outlook spring 2016.xls XLS - 934.50 KB
  • nags lto demand breakout spring 2016.xls XLS - 1.71 MB


Volatility in oil markets and the growth of unconventional gas supply have created a high degree of uncertainty about future gas demand and the direction of gas prices.

This Gas Markets Long Term Outlook report forecasts future pricing, based on deep analysis of gas supply and demand fundamentals. Additionally, it addresses complex questions on gas flows, identifies future opportunities and informs fuel purchasing strategies.

Participants and investors can use this long term outlook report to understand gas markets and assess the impact of global gas dynamics and key market drivers.

Wood Mackenzie provides detailed supply, demand and price forecasts based on our integrated upstream, power, coal and LNG research. Our regional gas experts are based in the markets they analyse, providing comprehensive analyses of regional and global gas markets.

If you want to understand complex gas market dynamics and plan for the future, Wood Mackenzie is the premier resource to help you gain a clear, competitive advantage.

  • Executive summary
    • Northeast infrastructure build-out
      • The best of the rest: Non-Northeast supply sources
    • Global landscape
    • Environmental policy and renewables
    • Price outlook and risks
  • Supply
    • Overview
    • Cost of supply
    • Short-term gas supply
      • US rig activity bottom
      • Drilled uncompleted wells (DUCs) help mitigate declines
      • Limited near-term Northeast supply growth
    • Moving beyond the uncertainties of 2017
      • Northeast
      • Haynesville
      • Associated gas
      • Legacy gas supply regions
  • Demand
    • GDP Outlook
    • Industrial gas demand stays stable under low oil price and continues to lead US gas demand growth
    • Petrochemicals: 12 million tonnes/year ethylene capacity to come online by the end of this decade
    • Fertilizers: US is still on track to become a net exporter
    • Methanol still has a bright future, but there is higher downside risk
    • NGV growth is delayed even further as oil price is slow to recover
    • Gas demand for marine bunkering is slightly lower
    • Conversions boost long-term residential and commercial demand
      • US generation by fuel
    • Regional power sector gas demand growth
    • The first wave of US LNG comes online
    • Prospects for a second wave of US LNG
  • Trade
    • Canada: WCSB holds onto traditional export markets a while longer
    • Mexico
  • Infrastructure
    • Northeast
    • Pipeline expansion outlook
      • Short-term constraint persists in northeast Pennsylvania
      • Northeast Pennsylvania basis relief with Atlantic Sunrise, and long-term expansion
      • Major southwest Marcellus and Utica projects are with FERC and face regulatory uncertainty
      • Long-term pipeline build
      • Winter premium markets
    • Southeast
    • Midwest
    • Rockies and San Juan
      • Rockies production by end market
    • Pacific Northwest and California
    • Mid-Continent and Permian
      • Mid-Continent and Permian basis
    • Gulf Coast

In this report there are 57 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
    • Northeast Pennsylvania exit capacity growth
    • Executive summary: Image 2
    • Non-Northeast gas resource
    • Executive summary: Image 4
    • Price outlook and marginal plays
    • Oil and gas price outlook
    • Executive summary: Image 7
  • Supply
    • Non-Northeast remaining resource estimates by gas breakeven band
    • Key play gas rig count
    • Northeast production forecast
    • Northeast drilling forecast
    • Associated gas production forecast
  • Demand
    • US GDP outlook
    • Total US gas demand by sector
    • Growth in US gas demand by sector from 2016
    • US cumulative industrial growth
    • US cumulative industrial projects by sector
    • Global ethylene production cost supply curve
    • US historical fertilizer imports
    • US NGV growth through 2030
    • Core heating demand and usage per customer
    • Cumulative wind capacity by census area (GW)
    • Demand: Image 9
    • Demand: Image 10
    • Power demand by region
    • US LNG exports by region / utilization (2016 – 2025)
    • US LNG projects (2016 – 2025)
    • US LNG feedgas by basin
    • Global gas prices
    • US LNG by market (2026-2035)
    • US LNG projects (2026-2035)
    • Global LNG liquefaction output* versus total LNG demand
  • Trade
    • Trade: Image 1
    • Mexico gas balance
  • Infrastructure
    • Committed pipeline projects
    • Uncommitted and generic pipeline expansion outlook
    • Northeast basis outlook
    • Northeast Marcellus destinations
    • Southwest Marcellus and Utica destinations
    • New York, Mid-Atlantic and New England seasonal basis
    • Atlantic and Carolinas demand by supply area
    • Southeast demand by supply area
    • Southeast vs Northeast basis
    • Chicago Citygate vs. supply area basis
    • Ohio, Michigan and Indiana demand by supply area
    • Illinois, Wisconsin and West North Central demand by supply area
    • Infrastructure: Image 13
    • Western basis
    • Pacific Northwest and Northern California demand by supply area
    • Southern California demand by supply area
    • Pacific Northwest and California basis
    • Infrastructure: Image 18
    • Mid-Continent supply by end market
    • Permian supply by end market
    • Gulf Coast basis
    • Gulf Coast supply by end market
    • Gulf Coast LNG export demand by supply area
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