Commodity Market Report

United States gas markets long-term outlook H1 2016

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08 August 2016

United States gas markets long-term outlook H1 2016

Report summary

Breakevens continue to fall, yet we don't expect US production to scale up as quickly over the next decade as we did a year ago, for both supply and demand reasons. Questions about infrastructure development, slower global economic growth and new competition from renewables hold back market size and production growth. 

Table of contents

    • Northeast infrastructure build-out
      • The best of the rest: Non-Northeast supply sources
    • Global landscape
    • Environmental policy and renewables
    • Price outlook and risks
    • Overview
    • Cost of supply
    • Short-term gas supply
      • US rig activity bottom
      • Drilled uncompleted wells (DUCs) help mitigate declines
      • Limited near-term Northeast supply growth
    • Moving beyond the uncertainties of 2017
      • Northeast
      • Haynesville
      • Associated gas
      • Legacy gas supply regions
    • GDP Outlook
    • Industrial gas demand stays stable under low oil price and continues to lead US gas demand growth
    • Petrochemicals: 12 million tonnes/year ethylene capacity to come online by the end of this decade
    • Fertilizers: US is still on track to become a net exporter
    • Methanol still has a bright future, but there is higher downside risk
    • NGV growth is delayed even further as oil price is slow to recover
    • Gas demand for marine bunkering is slightly lower
    • Conversions boost long-term residential and commercial demand
      • US generation by fuel
    • Regional power sector gas demand growth
    • The first wave of US LNG comes online
    • Prospects for a second wave of US LNG
    • Canada: WCSB holds onto traditional export markets a while longer
    • Mexico
    • Northeast
    • Pipeline expansion outlook
      • Short-term constraint persists in northeast Pennsylvania
      • Northeast Pennsylvania basis relief with Atlantic Sunrise, and long-term expansion
      • Major southwest Marcellus and Utica projects are with FERC and face regulatory uncertainty
      • Long-term pipeline build
      • Winter premium markets
    • Southeast
    • Midwest
    • Rockies and San Juan
      • Rockies production by end market
    • Pacific Northwest and California
    • Mid-Continent and Permian
      • Mid-Continent and Permian basis
    • Gulf Coast

Tables and charts

This report includes 57 images and tables including:

  • Committed pipeline projects
  • Uncommitted and generic pipeline expansion outlook
  • Northeast Pennsylvania exit capacity growth
  • Executive summary: Image 2
  • Oil and gas price outlook
  • Executive summary: Image 7
  • Non-Northeast remaining resource estimates by gas breakeven band
  • US GDP outlook
  • Total US gas demand by sector
  • Growth in US gas demand by sector from 2016
  • US cumulative industrial growth
  • US cumulative industrial projects by sector
  • Global ethylene production cost supply curve
  • US historical fertilizer imports
  • US NGV growth through 2030
  • Core heating demand and usage per customer
  • Cumulative wind capacity by census area (GW)
  • Demand: Image 9
  • Power demand by region
  • US LNG exports by region / utilization (2016 – 2025)
  • US LNG projects (2016 – 2025)
  • US LNG feedgas by basin
  • Global gas prices
  • US LNG by market (2026-2035)
  • US LNG projects (2026-2035)
  • Global LNG liquefaction output* versus total LNG demand
  • Trade: Image 1
  • Mexico gas balance
  • Northeast basis outlook
  • Atlantic and Carolinas demand by supply area
  • Southeast demand by supply area
  • Southeast vs Northeast basis
  • Chicago Citygate vs. supply area basis
  • Ohio, Michigan and Indiana demand by supply area
  • Illinois, Wisconsin and West North Central demand by supply area
  • Pacific Northwest and Northern California demand by supply area
  • Southern California demand by supply area
  • Pacific Northwest and California basis
  • Gulf Coast basis
  • Gulf Coast supply by end market
  • Gulf Coast LNG export demand by supply area
  • Non-Northeast gas resource
  • Executive summary: Image 4
  • Price outlook and marginal plays
  • Key play gas rig count
  • Northeast production forecast
  • Northeast drilling forecast
  • Associated gas production forecast
  • Demand: Image 10
  • Northeast Marcellus destinations
  • Southwest Marcellus and Utica destinations
  • New York, Mid-Atlantic and New England seasonal basis
  • Infrastructure: Image 13
  • Western basis
  • Infrastructure: Image 18
  • Mid-Continent supply by end market
  • Permian supply by end market

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    nags lto supply breakout spring 2016.xls

    XLS 754.50 KB

  • Document

    nags lto supply and demand balances spring 2016.xls

    XLS 949.50 KB

  • Document

    nags lto infrastructure spring 2016.xls

    XLS 188.50 KB

  • Document

    nags lto lng breakout spring 2016.xls

    XLS 819.50 KB

  • Document

    nags lto ngv breakout spring 2016.xls

    XLS 665.00 KB

  • Document

    nags lto price outlook spring 2016.xls

    XLS 934.50 KB

  • Document

    nags lto demand breakout spring 2016.xls

    XLS 1.71 MB

  • Document

    United States gas markets long-term outlook H1 2016

    PDF 1.78 MB

  • Document

    United States gas markets long-term outlook H1 2016

    ZIP 4.74 MB

  • Document

    Executive summary

    PDF 312.64 KB

  • Document


    PDF 153.37 KB

  • Document


    PDF 764.35 KB

  • Document


    PDF 91.02 KB

  • Document


    PDF 685.13 KB

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