Commodity market report

United States gas markets long-term outlook H2 2013

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Report summary

The cold start to this heating season boosted Henry Hub prices as high as $4.40/mmbtu, and the NYMEX strip is trading above $4.00/mmbtu for the first time since last spring. Despite the rally, however, prices aren’t likely climb further in the next two years; the major themes defining North American gas markets have not changed heading into 2014.

What's included

This report contains

  • Document

    United States gas markets long-term outlook H2 2013

    PDF 6.32 MB

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
    • The next two years
      • Chart 4. Gas, coal (heat rate adjusted), and oil price outlook
      • Chart 5. Marginal play and price outlook
    • Long-term markets
      • Figure 1. North American supply growth (relative to 2014) by region and key play
      • Marcellus - the leading low-cost gas producer with continued running room
      • Chart 7. Marcellus production by gas richness
      • Ohio Utica—data support strong growth outlook
      • Haynesville shale - Core areas support near-term growth as breakevens improve
      • Eagle Ford
      • Fayetteville
      • Piceance - Still a marginal gas resource, but looking better and better
      • Mid-Continent Rich Gas Plays (Anadarko Woodford and Granite Wash)
      • Tight oil: Long-term oil growths remains key
      • Bakken
      • Permian tight oil
      • Niobrara shale.
      • Mississippian and Anadarko Woodford oil
      • Reduced call on gas rigs till the second half of the decade
      • Cost outlook
    • GDP outlook
    • Gas demand overview
      • Chart 16. Core heating demand and use per customer
      • Ammonia/Urea
      • Methanol
      • Petrochemicals
      • Iron and steel
      • Gas-to-liquids
      • Other / Generic projects
      • GDP / non-project-specific growth
      • Load growth
      • GDP outlook
      • Chart 19. GDP and load growth
      • Environmental policy
      • Chart 20. US capacity changes
      • Displacement and utilization
      • Regional outlook
      • Figure 2. Gas demand growth by region
      • Transport
    • Figure 3. Regional Supply-demand balance
    • Northeast Pennsylvania: The most constrained market
    • Figure 5. Key flow constraints in the Northeast: Constraint volumes
    • How quickly will new capacity relieve constraints?
    • Basis outlook
    • Chart 30. Destination markets for Northeast supplies
    • Changes from 2013-‘18: Gulf Coast flows shift south
    • Changes from 2013-‘23: After carbon, the impact zone expands further
    • Major pipeline projects
    • Figure 10. Projects going south and west out of the Northeast
    • Basis outlook
    • Major pipeline projects
    • Basis outlook
    • Chart 32. Gulf Coast basis outlook
    • Major pipeline projects
    • Basis outlook
    • Major pipeline projects
    • Basis outlook
    • Major pipeline projects
    • Basis outlook
    • Chart 35. Western basis outlook

Tables and charts

This report includes 56 images and tables including:

Images

  • Chart 1. Demand growth relative to 2013
  • Chart 2. US supply by type and Marcellus/Utica percentage
  • Chart 3. Gas price outlook
  • Chart 6. Global gas price outlook
  • Demand: Image 1
  • Demand: Image 2
  • Infrastructure: Image 1
  • Infrastructure: Image 2
  • Infrastructure: Image 3
  • Figure 6. Northeast expansions
  • Chart 28. Northeast basis outlook
  • Chart 29. New York vs. New England basis
  • Infrastructure: Image 7
  • Figure 7. 2013 flows along major corridors (mmcfd)
  • Figure 8. Change in flows from 2013 to 2018 (mmcfd)
  • Figure 9. Change in flows from 2013 to 2023 (mmcfd)
  • Infrastructure: Image 11
  • Chart 31. Southeast basis outlook
  • Infrastructure: Image 13
  • Chart 33. Mid-Continent basis outlook
  • Chart 34. Midwest basis outlook
  • Infrastructure: Image 16
  • Trade: Image 3
  • Prices: Image 1
  • Prices: Image 2
  • Supply: Image 1
  • Supply: Image 2
  • Chart 8. Haynesville well locations and production by sub-area
  • Supply: Image 4
  • Supply: Image 5
  • Supply: Image 6
  • Supply: Image 7
  • Supply: Image 8
  • Supply: Image 9
  • Chart 13. Onshore US Upstream cost outlook
  • Demand: Image 3
  • Demand: Image 4
  • Demand: Image 5
  • Demand: Image 6
  • Demand: Image 7
  • Chart 21. Gas demand growth (vs. 2013)
  • Demand: Image 9
  • Chart 22. Capacity utilization rates
  • Demand: Image 11
  • Demand: Image 12
  • Chart 23 Transport Demand
  • Chart 24. Pipeline flow forecast to and from the US
  • Chart 25. Growth of piped exports to Mexico
  • Trade: Image 4
  • Chart 27. Proposed North American LNG export capacity
  • Table 4. Proposed US supply projects with earliest expected start dates on or before 2019
  • Trade: Image 7

Tables

  • Table 1. Long term forecast of key data
  • Table 2. Key US plays supply metrics
  • Table 6. Northeast expansions by year
  • Table 3. FERC timeline of US LNG export projects (application and estimated earliest award dates)

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