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62 Pages

United States gas markets long-term outlook H2 2013


United States gas markets long-term outlook H2 2013

Report summary

The cold start to this heating season boosted Henry Hub prices as high as $4.40/mmbtu, and the NYMEX strip is trading above $4.00/mmbtu for the first time since last spring. Despite the rally, however, prices aren’t likely climb further in the next two years; the major themes defining North American gas markets have not changed heading into 2014. 

What's included?

This report includes 6 file(s)

  • United States gas markets long-term outlook H2 2013 PDF - 6.32 MB 62 Pages, 4 Tables, 52 Figures
  • NAGS LTV Demand Breakout Fall 2013.xls XLS - 2.72 MB
  • NAGS LTV Infrastructure and Storage Fall 2013.xls XLS - 250.00 KB
  • NAGS LTV Supply and Demand Fall 2013.xls XLS - 1.87 MB
  • NAGS LTV Price Outlook Fall 2013.xls XLS - 878.50 KB
  • NAGS LTV New Industrial Capacity Fall 2013.xls XLS - 1.21 MB

Description

Volatility in oil markets and the growth of unconventional gas supply have created a high degree of uncertainty about future gas demand and the direction of gas prices.

This Gas Markets Long Term Outlook report forecasts future pricing, based on deep analysis of gas supply and demand fundamentals. Additionally, it addresses complex questions on gas flows, identifies future opportunities and informs fuel purchasing strategies.

Participants and investors can use this long term outlook report to understand gas markets and assess the impact of global gas dynamics and key market drivers.

Wood Mackenzie provides detailed supply, demand and price forecasts based on our integrated upstream, power, coal and LNG research. Our regional gas experts are based in the markets they analyse, providing comprehensive analyses of regional and global gas markets.

If you want to understand complex gas market dynamics and plan for the future, Wood Mackenzie is the premier resource to help you gain a clear, competitive advantage.

  • Executive summary
  • Prices
    • The next two years
    • Back half of the decade
      • Chart 4. Gas, coal (heat rate adjusted), and oil price outlook
      • Chart 5. Marginal play and price outlook
    • Long-term markets
  • Supply
    • Regional overview
      • Figure 1. North American supply growth (relative to 2014) by region and key play
    • Key plays—Flight to quality becomes key to new corporate strategies
      • Marcellus - the leading low-cost gas producer with continued running room
      • Chart 7. Marcellus production by gas richness
      • Ohio Utica—data support strong growth outlook
      • Haynesville shale - Core areas support near-term growth as breakevens improve
      • Eagle Ford
      • Fayetteville
      • Piceance - Still a marginal gas resource, but looking better and better
      • Mid-Continent Rich Gas Plays (Anadarko Woodford and Granite Wash)
      • Tight oil: Long-term oil growths remains key
      • Bakken
      • Permian tight oil
      • Niobrara shale.
      • Mississippian and Anadarko Woodford oil
    • Drilling outlook
      • Reduced call on gas rigs till the second half of the decade
      • Cost outlook
  • Demand
    • GDP outlook
    • Gas demand overview
    • Residential and Commercial
      • Chart 16. Core heating demand and use per customer
    • Industrial
      • Ammonia/Urea
      • Methanol
      • Petrochemicals
      • Iron and steel
      • Gas-to-liquids
      • Other / Generic projects
      • GDP / non-project-specific growth
    • Power
      • Load growth
    • Natural Gas Vehicles and Marine Bunkering
      • Transport
  • Infrastructure
    • Figure 3. Regional Supply-demand balance
    • Northeast Pennsylvania: The most constrained market
    • Figure 5. Key flow constraints in the Northeast: Constraint volumes
    • How quickly will new capacity relieve constraints?
    • Basis outlook
    • Chart 30. Destination markets for Northeast supplies
    • Changes from 2013-‘18: Gulf Coast flows shift south
    • Changes from 2013-‘23: After carbon, the impact zone expands further
    • Major pipeline projects
    • Figure 10. Projects going south and west out of the Northeast
    • Basis outlook
    • Major pipeline projects
    • Basis outlook
    • Chart 32. Gulf Coast basis outlook
    • Major pipeline projects
    • Basis outlook
    • Major pipeline projects
    • Basis outlook
    • Major pipeline projects
    • Basis outlook
    • Chart 35. Western basis outlook
  • Trade
    • Piped Imports
      • Canada1
      • Mexico2
    • US LNG export outlook
    • Map 1. Key export infrastructure
      • Chart 26. Regulatory status of US LNG export projects
      • Export capacity
      • Alaska LNG

In this report there are 56 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
    • Chart 1. Demand growth relative to 2013
    • Chart 2. US supply by type and Marcellus/Utica percentage
    • Chart 3. Gas price outlook
  • Prices
    • Prices: Image 1
    • Prices: Image 2
    • Chart 6. Global gas price outlook
    • Table 1. Long term forecast of key data
  • Supply
    • Supply: Image 1
    • Table 2. Key US plays supply metrics
    • Supply: Image 2
    • Chart 8. Haynesville well locations and production by sub-area
    • Supply: Image 4
    • Supply: Image 5
    • Supply: Image 6
    • Supply: Image 7
    • Supply: Image 8
    • Supply: Image 9
    • Chart 13. Onshore US Upstream cost outlook
  • Demand
    • Demand: Image 1
    • Demand: Image 2
    • Demand: Image 3
    • Demand: Image 4
    • Demand: Image 5
    • Demand: Image 6
    • Demand: Image 7
    • Chart 21. Gas demand growth (vs. 2013)
    • Demand: Image 9
    • Chart 22. Capacity utilization rates
    • Demand: Image 11
    • Demand: Image 12
    • Chart 23 Transport Demand
  • Infrastructure
    • Infrastructure: Image 1
    • Infrastructure: Image 2
    • Infrastructure: Image 3
    • Figure 6. Northeast expansions
    • Table 6. Northeast expansions by year
    • Chart 28. Northeast basis outlook
    • Chart 29. New York vs. New England basis
    • Infrastructure: Image 7
    • Figure 7. 2013 flows along major corridors (mmcfd)
    • Figure 8. Change in flows from 2013 to 2018 (mmcfd)
    • Figure 9. Change in flows from 2013 to 2023 (mmcfd)
    • Infrastructure: Image 11
    • Chart 31. Southeast basis outlook
    • Infrastructure: Image 13
    • Chart 33. Mid-Continent basis outlook
    • Chart 34. Midwest basis outlook
    • Infrastructure: Image 16
  • Trade
    • Chart 24. Pipeline flow forecast to and from the US
    • Chart 25. Growth of piped exports to Mexico
    • Trade: Image 3
    • Trade: Image 4
    • Table 3. FERC timeline of US LNG export projects (application and estimated earliest award dates)
    • Chart 27. Proposed North American LNG export capacity
    • Table 4. Proposed US supply projects with earliest expected start dates on or before 2019
    • Trade: Image 7
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