Commodity market report
| |
56 Pages

United States gas markets long-term outlook H2 2014


United States gas markets long-term outlook H2 2014

Report summary

Ample well locations exist to meet new markets at modest prices, but as demand increases through time, and some of today’s lowest-cost plays are drilled up, Henry Hub prices rise to $4.00/mmbtu in 2019 and $5.00/mmbtu in 2026. US demand, including LNG and piped exports, is expected to increase from 73 bcfd in 2013 to 120 bcfd by 2031.

What's included?

This report includes 5 file(s)

  • United States gas markets long-term outlook H2 2014 PDF - 1.26 MB 56 Pages, 2 Tables, 56 Figures
  • NAGS LTV Demand Breakout Fall 2014.xls XLS - 1.88 MB
  • NAGS LTV Price Outlook Fall 2014.xls XLS - 773.50 KB
  • NAGS LTV Infrastructure Fall 2014.xls XLS - 158.50 KB
  • NAGS LTV Supply and Demand Fall 2014.xls XLS - 1.88 MB

Description

Volatility in oil markets and the growth of unconventional gas supply have created a high degree of uncertainty about future gas demand and the direction of gas prices.

This Gas Markets Long Term Outlook report forecasts future pricing, based on deep analysis of gas supply and demand fundamentals. Additionally, it addresses complex questions on gas flows, identifies future opportunities and informs fuel purchasing strategies.

Participants and investors can use this long term outlook report to understand gas markets and assess the impact of global gas dynamics and key market drivers.

Wood Mackenzie provides detailed supply, demand and price forecasts based on our integrated upstream, power, coal and LNG research. Our regional gas experts are based in the markets they analyse, providing comprehensive analyses of regional and global gas markets.

If you want to understand complex gas market dynamics and plan for the future, Wood Mackenzie is the premier resource to help you gain a clear, competitive advantage.

  • Executive summary
    • Fall 2014 long-term outlook
  • Prices
    • Henry Hub trades below $4.00/mmbtu through 2018
    • Carbon prices support gas prices between 2019 and 2025
    • Beyond 2025, power keeps gas prices strong, and NGVs become material
  • Supply
    • Overview
    • Northeast
      • Productivity: Continuing to improve quickly
      • Mid-term production outlook: Ongoing fast supply growth
      • Long-term supply growth: Supporting full-cycle pipeline economics
    • Associated Gas
      • Key associated gas-producing areas
    • Other key shales
      • Haynesville Shale
      • Barnett Shale
      • Fayetteville shale
    • US development outlook
    • Costs outlook
      • Impact of lower oil and NGL prices
  • Demand
    • GDP outlook
    • Gas demand overview: power and industrials lead domestic growth
    • Conversions boost long-term residential and commercial demand
    • Gas-intensive industrials seek to capitalize on a low price environment
      • Fertilizers: US will become net exporter by 2017
      • Methanol: US project development supported by Chinese backing
      • Petrochemicals: Surplus ethane and ethylene slows project development
      • Gas-to-liquids: Small-scale projects will lead the way
      • Other/GDP-based growth
      • Natural gas vehicles and marine bunkering
      • Gas will continue to garner market share in the power sector
      • Power demand: Sluggish post-recession recovery followed by historically lower growth rates
      • Power supply: Environmental policy is reshaping the generation mix
      • Near-term coal retirements are well-defined
      • EPA’s Clean Power Plan now becomes the biggest regulatory uncertainty facing the power sector
      • New builds: renewables and gas vie for new energy needs
      • Long-term exports help a beleaguered US coal market
  • Trade
    • Piped imports
      • Canada: WSCB seeks new markets as it is increasingly displaced in eastern Canada
      • Mexico: Energy reform opens new opportunities for US natural gas
    • LNG exports
      • Medium-term pull on North American LNG
      • Long-term competition
  • Infrastructure
    • Northeast
      • Northeast basis outlook
    • Southeast
    • Gulf Coast
    • Mid-Continent and Permian
    • Midwest
    • West
      • Rockies
      • Pacific Northwest and California

In this report there are 58 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
    • WTI and Henry Hub prices
    • Associated gas by oil breakeven
    • Henry Hub, AECO, Dominon South Point
  • Prices
    • Pipeline capacity out of the Northeast and US market growth
    • Marginal play and price
  • Supply
    • US Regional gas production changes
    • Marcellus initial production rates
    • Northeast supply growth
    • Northeast shale production
    • US associated gas forecast with breakout by oil breakeven (Brent)
    • Gas production outlook from key tight oil areas and the Eagle Ford shale
    • Other key shale gas plays production forecast
    • US Capital spending outlook with possible oil price impacts
    • US drilling forecast by target
    • Key US shale gas drilling forecast
    • Impact of oil price (Brent) changes to rich-gas breakevens in the US
  • Demand
    • Demand: Table 1
    • Total US gas demand by sector
    • Growth in US gas demand by sector from 2013
    • Core heating demand and usage per customer
    • US cumulative industrial growth (vs 2013)
    • Demand: Image 4
    • US power sector gas demand with major sign posts
    • Southeast US power burns show strongest growth
    • Power demand will not recover recessionary losses until 2015
    • Load growth expectations are highly regionalized: 2015-2030 average annual load growth
    • US coal retirements will exceed 60 GW from 2010-2020
    • Coal and gas will remain competitive in power dispatch
    • Changes in US power generation
  • Trade
    • Trade: Image 1
    • Trade: Image 2
    • Key US LNG export infrastructure
    • By project
    • By destination market
    • FERC queue - order of export approvals by earliest possible FERC authorisation date
    • Trade: Image 7
    • Trade: Image 8
    • Trade: Image 9
  • Infrastructure
    • Infrastructure: Image 1
    • Northeast Marcellus destinations*
    • Southwest Marcellus and Utica destinations*
    • New York, Mid Atlantic and New England seasonal basis
    • Near Southeast demand by supply area
    • Far Southeast demand by supply area
    • Southeast vs Northeast basis
    • Gulf Coast basis
    • West South Central domestic demand by supply area
    • Gulf Coast LNG export demand by supply area
    • Mid-Continent and Permian basis
    • Mid-Continent supply by end market
    • Permian supply by end market
    • Chicago Citygate vs supply area basis
    • Midwest demand by supply area
    • Western basis
    • Rockies production by end market
    • Pacific Northwest basis
    • Pacific Northwest and Northern California demand by supply area
    • Southern California demand by supply area
Requester's name : .............
Department : .............
Authoriser's Name : .............
Authoriser's signature : .............
Date : .............
Cost Centre : .............

Questions about this report?

Frequently Asked Questions

Mailenquiries@woodmac.com
  • Europe: +44 131 243 4699
  • Americas: +1 713 470 1900
  • Asia Pacific: +61 2 8224 8898
contact us

Why Wood Mackenzie?

Wood Mackenzie, a Verisk Analytics business, has been a trusted source of commercial intelligence for the world's natural resources sector for more than 40 years, empowering clients to make better strategic decisions with objective analysis and advice.

We work across every sector of oil, gas, power, renewables, chemicals, metals and mining, covering more than 150 countries. Our proprietary data and models are at the core of everything we do, ensuring our independent asset and company valuations are thoroughly robust and that we offer an accurate forward-looking view of economic indicators such as market supply, demand and price trends.

Our 500+ analysts are based in the regions they cover, cultivating an unrivalled depth of understanding to help clients accurately identify new opportunities, define their strategy and improve business performance.

At every stage, our teams readily collaborate and share their insight to provide an integrated perspective across entire industries. It is this unique and rigorous analytical approach that ensures we are recognised as the industry standard by the world’s most innovative organisations.