Commodity market report

US-Russia gas supply clash begins: Europe gas and power markets short-term outlook Q4 2016

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Report summary

French nuclear outages will remain a substantial factor in French power pricing up to the end of 2016. But by Q1 2017 the UK will re emerge as the premium base load power price. Tightening supply and reduced capacity on the France England interconnector will push UK prices to multi year highs through winter. In the gas markets a clash between Russian gas and US LNG is set to begin. Europe will need to absorb an additional 24 bcm of LNG in 2017 and utilities will struggle to offtake their Russian gas contractual commitments. This will result in subdued European spot prices and with increasing Henry Hub prices results in some US LNG being uneconomic. For many in the industry there will be some stark choices to be made. This report includes an outlook for European gas balances and forecast North West European gas and power prices out to Q4 2017.

What's included

This report contains

  • Document

    European gas and power short term price outlook Q4 2016.xls

    XLS 475.00 KB

  • Document

    US-Russia gas supply clash begins: European gas and power markets short-term outlook Q4 2016

    PDF 372.18 KB

  • Document

    US-Russia gas supply clash begins: European gas and power markets short-term outlook Q4 2016

    ZIP 512.09 KB

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
  • Supply-demand balances
  • Prices

Tables and charts

This report includes 11 images and tables including:

Images

  • Gas Prices
  • Economics of US LNG to Europe
  • Key markets data
  • French Nuclear Production
  • Storage inventories*
  • Russian gas imports
  • French reactor outages
  • European base load power prices
  • UK base load prices - year-on-year comparison
  • Clean spreads (base load) - Germany
  • Clean spreads (base load) - France

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