Commodity Market Report

China LNG long-term outlook 2018

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22 November 2018

China LNG long-term outlook 2018

Report summary

In 2017, LNG imports grew by 46% year-on-year to 38.3 Mt, making China the second-largest LNG importer after Japan. The level of strong growth sustained in 2018, with 45% growth year-on-year by the end of September. Surging LNG demand boosted the average utilisation rate to around 75% in January-September 2018, up from 64% in 2017. Seasonal infrastructure bottlenecks have become increasingly acute. NOCs are starting to realize that a buyer's market with an ample supply of cheap LNG might be soon replaced with one characterised by a shortage of gas. With many projects still in the pre-FID stage (which creates significant uncertainty for supply security post-2022), the best strategy is perhaps to secure contracted supply when the price is still competitive.

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
    • Historical LNG imports
    • Spot versus contracted
    • Seasonal profile
    • LNG demand forecast
      • Short term (winter of 2018/19)
      • Medium term (2019-2020)
      • Long term (post-2020)
    • Current regas status
    • Regas utilisation
    • CNOOC and its joint ventures
    • PetroChina
    • Sinopec
    • Private entrants
  • Contracts
    • Regasification tariffs
  • Key companies
    • LNG terminal development
    • Third party access
    • Gas sector reform
    • Energy and environmental policy
  • Risks and uncertainties

Tables and charts

This report includes 14 images and tables including:

  • Executive summary: Image 1
  • Infrastructure: Image 1
  • LNG import terminals
  • LNG contracts signed since 2016
  • Contract pricing trend
  • Contract by indexation type
  • Contracts: Image 3
  • Contracted LNG supply position by buyer
  • Cost stack of pre-FID LNG supplies into China
  • Key players
  • Demand: Image 1
  • LNG Seasonality
  • Contracted versus uncontracted LNG import outlook
  • Infrastructure: Image 3

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    China lng long-term outlook 2018.xls

    XLS 334.50 KB

  • Document

    China LNG long-term outlook 2018

    PDF 2.33 MB

  • Document

    China LNG long-term outlook 2018

    ZIP 2.35 MB

  • Document

    Executive summary

    PDF 1.41 MB

  • Document

    Demand

    PDF 755.16 KB

  • Document

    Infrastructure

    PDF 1.39 MB

  • Document

    Contracts

    PDF 766.38 KB

  • Document

    Costs

    PDF 772.27 KB

  • Document

    Key companies

    PDF 713.37 KB

  • Document

    Policy and regulation

    PDF 685.75 KB

  • Document

    Risks and uncertainties

    PDF 702.35 KB

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