Commodity Market Report

Global FLNG Overview 2019

Giles Farrer

24 January 2019

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What's the key takeaway of this year's report?

A change of course is likely as FLNG players take a second look at financials. Questions remain over cost and project economics.

What's inside this report?

Get answers to all your questions about FLNG including:

What do I need to know about FLNG?
How does FLNG stack up against LNG?
What's the FLNG industry doing to overcome challenges such as the reduction in exploration expenditure and the poor economies of scale?

24 January 2019

Global FLNG Overview 2019

Report summary

FLNG has been a bright spot in the wider LNG market over the past few years, which suffered following the oil price crash in 2014. The first FLNG cargo was shipped in 2017 and three FLNG vessels are now operational. Three of the seven major LNG projects to take FID between 2015 to 2018 were FLNG projects. FLNG is now seen as a viable development concept, offering faster construction times and early cash flows. However, capital over-runs at some of the initial projects scared some away from the concept. Government concerns about FLNG reducing local employment have pushed some projects onshore. Furthermore, the upcoming investment story in large capacity projects in the US could see FLNG struggling to obtain partners, buyers and financing. Despite this, FLNG has now established itself as a credible development option and - with further experience and cost reduction - further projects may quickly appear in an otherwise quiet FLNG FID outlook.

The lack of economy of scale is likely to limit FLNG projects to small-scale and remote developments as it competes for buyers, financing and partners in a busy LNG marketplace.

Liam Kelleher, global LNG research analyst, quoted by oilprice.com

Chart showing capex per tonne by date of FID

Sample data point

What do I need to know about capital expenditure of FLNG projects? And how does this compare to LNG?

In this report, we present the CAPEX of all LNG and FLNG projects worldwide, illustrated in the graph above by year of which they took Final Investment Decision (FID). Since the year 2000 to date, the average cost of LNG projects sanctioned has been $1000/tonne. However from 2009 to date, the cost of LNG projects rose to an average $1,400 per tonne. The sustained high oil price between 2008 and 2014 – which peaked at $147/bbl (Brent) – caused a major escalation in project costs of both oil and gas projects. A number of high cost Australian projects were also sanctioned, with an average cost of $2,400/tonne.

Global FLNG Overview 2019: One giant leap for FLNG, small steps lay ahead
Near-shore Developments
Open-Sea developments
Economics
Capital Expenditure (CAPEX)
- Location and CAPEX
Operating Expenditure (OPEX)
Breakeven Costs
- Construction Time
Financing and Commercial Structure
Commercial structure
Cost Risks - Escalation and Deflation
Supply and Demand
FID Outlook
- Exploration - a dwindling number of new gas finds
Project Cancellations and Postponements
Advantages and Disadvantages of FLNG
- Advantages
- Disadvantages:
Remaining Issues
- Fiscal requirements and local content
- Economy of scale in a competitive market
- FLNG gravitating towards a fixed offshore concept
Summary
Liquids Processing and Storage
LNG Offloading & Transfer
Liquefaction processes and capacity constraints
Vessel life
LNG storage and containment type
Capacity
Utilisation
Safety
Key players
- Upstream companies
- Majors
- Asian NOCs and IOCs
- Mid and Large-Caps
- Other
- Mid-stream operators
- Golar
- Exmar
- SBM Offshore
- Hoegh
- Excelerate Energy
EPC contractors and shipbuilders
- EPC/Technology Companies
- Shipbuilders
Key Projects
- Asia Pacific
- Australia
- Prelude
- Equus FLNG - Speculative
- Cancelled Projects
- Browse FLNG – Concept Changed to Onshore
- Scarborough FLNG – Concept Changed to Onshore
- Cash-Maple FLNG – Concept Changed to Onshore
- Other Australia
- Timor-Leste
- Greater Sunrise FLNG - Speculative
- Malaysia
- PETRONAS FLNG 1 (Satu) - Operational
- PETRONAS FLNG 2 (Dua) – Under Construction
- Indonesia
- Abadi FLNG - Concept Changed to Onshore
- Natuna and Dara FLNG - Stalled
- Papua New Guinea
- Pandora FLNG - Speculative
- PNG FLNG – Concept Changed to Onshore
Africa and Middle East
- Cameroon
- Cameroon GoFLNG – Operational
- Etinde FLNG – Speculative
- Equatorial Guinea
- Fortuna FLNG – Speculative
- Mozambique
- Coral FLNG – Under Construction
- Mauritania/Senegal
- Tortue FLNG - Under Construction
- Congo-Brazzaville
- CBLNG - Stalled
Americas
- US Gulf Coast
- Delfin FLNG – Possible
- Main Pass Energy Hub (MPEH) – Speculative
- Avocet FLNG - Stalled
- Point Comfort FLNG - Stalled
- Annova FLNG – Concept Changed to Onshore
- Lavaca Bay - Cancelled
- EOS FLNG - Cancelled
- Cambridge Energy (CE) FLNG – Cancelled
- Canada
- Western FLNG – Speculative
- Kitimat FLNG – Cancelled
- Douglas Channel LNG – Cancelled
- Kitsault LNG – Cancelled
- Stewart Energy FLNG – Cancelled
- Colombia
- Caribbean FLNG – Cancelled
- Argentina
- Tango FLNG
- Brazil
Other
- Russia
- Gorskaya FLNG – Cancelled