Commodity Market Report

Global LNG shipping long-term outlook 2016

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15 August 2016

Global LNG shipping long-term outlook 2016

Report summary

The current surplus in LNG shipping capacity will take a long-time to be absorbed, even with the rapid growth in new LNG supply over the next few years. It is 2021 before we see a need for additional ships beyond what is in the current orderbook. Spot/short-term freight rates may see some improvement from the lows recently visited but they are likely to remain well below the level required to make an investment return for much of the rest of this decade. On the shipping supply side a new degree of restraint is evident with just four new orders so far in 2016. But there is still a huge backlog of new LNG ships to deliver and a large number of recently delivered ships that have yet to find long-term employment. Falling demand for LNG in Japan and South Korea has hit shipping hard by reducing long-haul trade from the Atlantic Basin and the Middle East. It has also diminished the prospect of large volumes of new US LNG exports making the shipping demand hungry trip to Asia in the future.

Table of contents

    • Key issues
    • LNG shipping demand
      • Forecast trade
        • New LNG projects
        • LNG vessels required to export 4.5 mmtpa to selected destinations by export region
      • Forecast LNG shipping requirement by project status
    • LNG shipping supply and availability
      • Procuring a new LNG Ship
      • Shipyard berth availability and current orders
      • Existing Fleet
      • Inactive fleet
      • Scrapping
    • LNG shipping supply-demand balance

Tables and charts

This report includes 23 images and tables including:

  • Forecast LNG shipping supply v demand (number of 174,000 m³ equivalent vessels/bcm-miles)
  • Historic LNG exports
  • Historic LNG imports
  • Far East LNG imports by source (mmtpa)
  • Far East LNG imports (billion tonne-miles)
  • LNG fleet development by size range (current fleet and orderbook)
  • LNG fleet capacity v bcm-mile demand
  • Bcm-mile demand v theoretical maximum
  • Forecast LNG shipping supply (17,500m3 +)
  • Modelled forecast LNG trade (bcm)
  • Modelled forecast LNG trade ('000 bcm-miles)
  • LNG liquefaction capacity by status v LNG demand
  • Ship requirement by status v LNG demand
  • LNG shipyards and delivery availability
  • LNG shipyards committed output and delivery availability
  • LNG ships ordered - charter expiry schedule (17,500 m³+ ships)
  • Existing LNG fleet - charter expiry schedule (100,000 m³+ ships)
  • Existing LNG fleet - charter expiry schedule (17,500-100,000 m³ ships)
  • Scrapping potential of current LNG fleet
  • Historic and forecast LNG vessel scrapping
  • LNG shipping requirement by project
  • Estimated shipping requirement for projects under construction (number of 174,000 m³ equivalent vessels)
  • Demand: Image 8

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    lng shipping long term outlook 2016.xls

    XLS 644.00 KB

  • Document

    Global LNG shipping long-term outlook 2016

    PDF 647.55 KB

  • Document

    Global LNG shipping long-term outlook 2016

    ZIP 840.21 KB

  • Document

    Executive summary

    PDF 100.84 KB

  • Document

    Demand

    PDF 352.56 KB

  • Document

    Supply

    PDF 147.01 KB

  • Document

    Supply-demand balances

    PDF 141.63 KB

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