Commodity market report
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20 Pages

Global LNG shipping long-term outlook 2016


Global LNG shipping long-term outlook 2016

Report summary

The current surplus in LNG shipping capacity will take a long-time to be absorbed, even with the rapid growth in new LNG supply over the next few years. It is 2021 before we see a need for additional ships beyond what is in the current orderbook. Spot/short-term freight rates may see some improvement from the lows recently visited but they are likely to remain well below the level required to make an investment return for much of the rest of this decade.

On the shipping supply side a new degree of restraint is evident with just four new orders so far in 2016. But there is still a huge backlog of new LNG ships to deliver and a large number of recently delivered ships that have yet to find long-term employment. Falling demand for LNG in Japan and South Korea has hit shipping hard by reducing long-haul trade from the Atlantic Basin and the Middle East. It has also diminished the prospect of large volumes of new US LNG exports making the shipping demand hungry trip to Asia in the future.

What's included?

This report includes 2 file(s)

  • Global LNG shipping long-term outlook 2016 PDF - 647.55 KB 20 Pages, 3 Tables, 20 Figures
  • lng shipping long term outlook 2016.xls XLS - 644.00 KB

Description

As global energy demand rises, the market for liquefied natural gas (LNG) continues to expand. Set to increase by 50% between 2015 and 2020, the LNG market is one of the fastest growing in the world. This spectacular growth is transforming the market, with many new companies entering the sector and changing the industry landscape.

This LNG Long Term Outlook report provides an overview of LNG in the gas market.

LNG market participants and advisers can use this report to better understand the long-term role of this market in the global LNG business.

Offering bottom-up market analysis for over 150 LNG supply assets, 28 LNG-importing countries and more than 500 LNG contracts, Wood Mackenzie is the definitive and trusted resource for the LNG industry. We use our robust database and expert industry knowledge to help you understand the dynamics of the global LNG industry and identify emerging trends and opportunities.

  • Executive summary
    • Key issues
  • Demand
    • LNG shipping demand
      • Forecast trade
        • New LNG projects
        • LNG vessels required to export 4.5 mmtpa to selected destinations by export region
      • Forecast LNG shipping requirement by project status
  • Supply
    • LNG shipping supply and availability
      • Procuring a new LNG Ship
      • Shipyard berth availability and current orders
      • Existing Fleet
      • Inactive fleet
      • Scrapping
  • Supply-demand balances
    • LNG shipping supply-demand balance

In this report there are 23 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
    • Forecast LNG shipping supply v demand (number of 174,000 m³ equivalent vessels/bcm-miles)
  • Demand
    • Historic LNG exports
    • Historic LNG imports
    • Far East LNG imports by source (mmtpa)
    • Far East LNG imports (billion tonne-miles)
    • Modelled forecast LNG trade (bcm)
    • Modelled forecast LNG trade ('000 bcm-miles)
    • LNG shipping requirement by project
    • Estimated shipping requirement for projects under construction (number of 174,000 m³ equivalent vessels)
    • Demand: Image 8
    • LNG liquefaction capacity by status v LNG demand
    • Ship requirement by status v LNG demand
  • Supply
    • LNG fleet development by size range (current fleet and orderbook)
    • LNG shipyards and delivery availability
    • LNG shipyards committed output and delivery availability
    • LNG ships ordered - charter expiry schedule (17,500 m³+ ships)
    • Existing LNG fleet - charter expiry schedule (100,000 m³+ ships)
    • Existing LNG fleet - charter expiry schedule (17,500-100,000 m³ ships)
    • Scrapping potential of current LNG fleet
    • Historic and forecast LNG vessel scrapping
  • Supply-demand balances
    • LNG fleet capacity v bcm-mile demand
    • Bcm-mile demand v theoretical maximum
    • Forecast LNG shipping supply (17,500m3 +)
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