Indonesia LNG long-term outlook 2017: Will the demand growth resume?
Indonesia's LNG demand had grown strongly, from 0.7 mmtpa in 2012 to 2.8 mmtpa in 2016. But the demand growth stopped in 2017, amid soft power consumption in H1 2017. Power demand grew by only 2.5% in the first six months of 2017 compared to the same period last year, lower than PLN's expectation of 8.7%. This was mainly due to the higher power tariffs which created response from industrial customers. Going forward, we expect demand to continue to grow, as domestic gas infrastructure is expanded and more LNG import terminals are developed. New gas-fired power pant projects, which are being developed by PLN and independent power producers (IPPs), will create considerable gas demand upside and LNG is increasingly required to backfill the declining piped gas supply particularly in West Java and North Sumatra. We expect softer LNG demand during 2021-2025 due to competition from coal in the power sector. Post-2025 LNG demand looks robust.