Commodity market report

Japan LNG long-term outlook 2017 - finding a place in the liberalised market

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Report summary

Japan's gas and power markets are at the start of a shake-up as liberalisation commences. Increased competition is leading to new joint ventures and changes in the contracting behaviours of companies such as JERA. Meanwhile, third-party access has been introduced but is still in its infancy. Gas demand is in long-term structural decline, mainly driven by a forecast decline in gas generation. Coal, nuclear and renewables are putting pressure on the share of gas generation in an electricity market that's expected to shrink overall. While we expect non-power demand to hold steady, overall LNG imports are expected to fall 20% by 2035 from current levels.

What's included

This report contains

  • Document

    01 data japan 2017.xls

    XLS 398.50 KB

  • Document

    Japan LNG long-term outlook 2017 - finding a place in the liberalised market

    PDF 6.45 MB

  • Document

    Japan LNG long-term outlook 2017 - finding a place in the liberalised market

    ZIP 6.55 MB

  • Document

    Executive summary

    PDF 819.37 KB

  • Document

    Infrastructure

    PDF 5.42 MB

  • Document

    Contracts

    PDF 137.76 KB

  • Document

    Demand

    PDF 108.99 KB

  • Document

    Costs

    PDF 101.70 KB

  • Document

    Key companies

    PDF 80.21 KB

  • Document

    Policy and regulation

    PDF 108.44 KB

Table of contents

Tables and charts

This report includes 15 images and tables including:

Images

  • Key facts
  • LNG infrastructure
  • Contracts vs LNG imports
  • Contracting trend
  • Breakeven cost stack of potential LNG supplies into market
  • Contracts: Image 3
  • Contracted LNG supply position by buyer (Mt)
  • Historical LNG imports
  • Seasonal profile
  • Generation mix
  • Gas demand and imports
  • Stock level
  • Short-run coal-to-gas switching curve
  • Japan electricity and gas liberalisation timeline

Tables

  • Nuclear restarts

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