Commodity Market Report

Japan LNG long-term outlook 2017 - finding a place in the liberalised market

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15 December 2017

Japan LNG long-term outlook 2017 - finding a place in the liberalised market

Report summary

Japan's gas and power markets are at the start of a shake-up as liberalisation commences. Increased competition is leading to new joint ventures and changes in the contracting behaviours of companies such as JERA. Meanwhile, third-party access has been introduced but is still in its infancy. Gas demand is in long-term structural decline, mainly driven by a forecast decline in gas generation. Coal, nuclear and renewables are putting pressure on the share of gas generation in an electricity market that's expected to shrink overall. While we expect non-power demand to hold steady, overall LNG imports are expected to fall 20% by 2035 from current levels.

Table of contents

    • Contracted LNG supply by source (Mt)
    • Nuclear outlook
    • Short-term power outlook (2017-2019)
    • Mid- to long-term power outlook (2020-2035)
    • Non-power gas demand
    • Regasification tariffs
    • Developments towards a liberalised gas market

Tables and charts

This report includes 14 images and tables including:

  • LNG infrastructure
  • Contracts vs LNG imports
  • Contracting trend
  • Historical LNG imports
  • Seasonal profile
  • Contracted LNG supply position by buyer (Mt)
  • Nuclear restarts
  • Generation mix
  • Gas demand and imports
  • Stock level
  • Short-run coal-to-gas switching curve
  • Breakeven cost stack of potential LNG supplies into market
  • Japan electricity and gas liberalisation timeline

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    01 data japan 2017.xls

    XLS 398.50 KB

  • Document

    Japan LNG long-term outlook 2017 - finding a place in the liberalised market

    PDF 2.01 MB

  • Document

    Japan LNG long-term outlook 2017 - finding a place in the liberalised market

    ZIP 2.05 MB

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