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PETRONAS LNG corporate: Will its double down bet on Asia pay off?


PETRONAS LNG corporate: Will its double down bet on Asia pay off?

Report summary

PETRONAS' core competency is in Asia and its focus has not wavered. By 2018, its portfolio will grow to 35 Mt and it will remain as one of the largest suppliers in the Pacific market. However, as contracted LNG grows, PETRONAS' flexible LNG increases significantly. We forecast flexible LNG growing from 6 Mt to 15 Mt between 2016 and 2020. This is a pressing concern as its exposure to the spot market increases its risk of being distressed.


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  • PETRONAS LNG corporate - Will its double down bet on Asia pay off.pdf PDF - 776.89 KB
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Description

The LNG market is set to increase by 50% between 2015 and 2020. This spectacular growth is transforming the market, with many new companies entering the sector and changing the industry landscape. LNG buyers are becoming increasingly fragmented, while the new emerging markets have smaller demand needs. This shift has increased demand for portfolio LNG supply.

This report allows you to understand how this company uses its LNG supply volumes, market access and shipping assets to create value from its LNG business. It provides an overview of the company's LNG strategy, assets, LNG supply access, LNG market commitments to give an accurate forecast of its flexible LNG portfolio.

As the LNG business continues to expand, in terms of both the number of players and the absolute volume of LNG traded, it is vital to understand the position and strategy of key suppliers and competitors.

Offering bottom up market analysis for over 150 LNG supply assets, 28 LNG-importing countries and more than 500 LNG contracts, Wood Mackenzie is the definitive and trusted resource for the LNG industry. We use our robust database and expert industry knowledge to help you understand the dynamics of the global LNG industry and identify emerging trends and opportunities.

  • Executive summary
    • SWOT analysis
  • LNG strategy
    • PETRONAS' core market is North Asia
    • PETRONAS' LNG portfolio will grow significantly
    • PETRONAS continues to focus on traditional buyers in North East Asia
    • However, PETRONAS will need to venture out to new markets
    • Dragon LNG as a strategic enabler to secure new cross basin partnerships
    • PETRONAS could look at Peninsular Malaysia and Singapore for growth
    • Decelerate supply growth by curtailing upstream investments
  • LNG assets
    • Gas into LNG
    • Focus on cost rationalisation in upstream developments
    • Integrated approach towards LNG
    • Liquefaction capacity
    • Operating/Post FID
    • Planned/Pre FID
    • Regas capacity
    • Shipping
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Post FID contracted supply
    • Supply from Malaysia forms the bulk of PETRONAS' portfolio
    • PETRONAS retains some off-take flexibility from its projects
    • Equity position in Dragon LNG may be a strategic enabler
    • Is PETRONAS still keen on growing its LNG portfolio?
    • Committed LNG
    • PETRONAS has sought out smaller buyers
    • But its match-up against Qatargas will be a severe test
    • Pacific NorthWest LNG contracts are still uncertain
    • Demand from Peninsular Malaysia is also uncertain
    • Flexible LNG portfolio
    • Volume of flexible supply triples to 15 Mt by 2019
  • Value Drivers
    • Contract Pricing
  • Risks and uncertainties

In this report there are 19 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
    • Executive summary: Table 1
  • LNG strategy
    • PETRONAS LNG sales commitments
    • Deals signed in 2015 / 2016
  • LNG assets
    • Table 1: PETRONAS' upstream supply to LNG liquefaction plants
    • Gas into LNG by equity (mmcfd)
    • Effective liquefaction capacity by equity (mmtpa)
    • Table 2: PETRONAS' liquefaction capacity
    • Table 3: PETRONAS' regasification capacity
    • PETRONAS' Shipping –Owned and Chartered
    • PETRONAS ships required vs Fleet size
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Table 4: Contracted supply
    • PETRONAS' contracted supply
    • Table 5: PETRONAS committed sales
    • PETRONAS' committed sales by market
    • PETRONAS' flexible LNG (mmtpa)
  • Value Drivers
    • PETRONAS supply contracts (Bought)
    • PETRONAS committed sales (Sold)
    • Pricing exposure
    • Weighted average cost and price of LNG
  • Risks and uncertainties
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