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PETRONAS LNG corporate: Will its double down bet on Asia pay off?

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Report summary

PETRONAS' core competency is in Asia and its focus has not wavered. By 2018 its portfolio will grow to 35 Mt and it will remain as one of the largest suppliers in the Pacific market. However as contracted LNG grows PETRONAS' flexible LNG increases significantly. We forecast flexible LNG growing from 6 Mt to 15 Mt between 2016 and 2020. This is a pressing concern as its exposure to the spot market increases its risk of being distressed.

What's included

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    PETRONAS LNG corporate - Will its double down bet on Asia pay off.pdf

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    PETRONAS LNG corporate summary.xls

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Table of contents

  • Executive summary
  • Recent developments
    • SWOT analysis
    • Gas into LNG
    • Focus on cost rationalisation in upstream developments
    • Integrated approach towards LNG
    • Liquefaction capacity
    • Operating/Post FID
    • Planned/Pre FID
    • Regas capacity
    • Shipping
    • Post FID contracted supply
    • Supply from Malaysia forms the bulk of PETRONAS' portfolio
    • PETRONAS retains some off-take flexibility from its projects
    • Equity position in Dragon LNG may be a strategic enabler
    • Is PETRONAS still keen on growing its LNG portfolio?
    • Committed LNG
    • PETRONAS has sought out smaller buyers
    • But its match-up against Qatargas will be a severe test
    • Pacific NorthWest LNG contracts are still uncertain
    • Demand from Peninsular Malaysia is also uncertain
    • Flexible LNG portfolio
    • Volume of flexible supply triples to 15 Mt by 2019
    • Contract Pricing
  • Risks and uncertainties

Tables and charts

This report includes 19 images and tables including:

Images

  • PETRONAS LNG sales commitments
  • Deals signed in 2015 / 2016
  • Gas into LNG by equity (mmcfd)
  • Effective liquefaction capacity by equity (mmtpa)
  • PETRONAS' Shipping –Owned and Chartered
  • PETRONAS ships required vs Fleet size
  • PETRONAS' contracted supply
  • PETRONAS' committed sales by market
  • PETRONAS' flexible LNG (mmtpa)
  • PETRONAS supply contracts (Bought)
  • PETRONAS committed sales (Sold)
  • Pricing exposure
  • Weighted average cost and price of LNG

Tables

  • LNG strategy: Table 1
  • Table 1: PETRONAS' upstream supply to LNG liquefaction plants
  • Table 2: PETRONAS' liquefaction capacity
  • Table 3: PETRONAS' regasification capacity
  • Table 4: Contracted supply
  • Table 5: PETRONAS committed sales

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