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South Korea LNG long-term outlook 2016

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01 June 2016

South Korea LNG long-term outlook 2016

Report summary

Demand has weakened considerable over the past two years in the face of slower economic growth, mild weather, and competition from other fuels in the power sector. While weather and temperature anomalies may be temporary in nature, trends within the economy and power sector suggest a structural change, which will result in weak LNG demand through the early 2020s.  

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
    • LNG Infrastructure
    • Contracted LNG supply position versus available regasification capacity
    • LNG Demand
      • Short- and medium-term LNG outlook
        • Gas demand for power is expected to decline through 2017. With non-power demand growth only modestly offsetting this decline, the ramp up of long-term LNG contracts from Australia is expected to result in South Korea being over contracted on an ACQ basis by an average of 110 mmcfd through 2024.
      • Long-term LNG outlook
        • Only by 2025 do we see the need for more supply, with the gap between demand and contracted ACQ levels widens to 1,300 mmcfd. While we expect LNG demand to pick up from the early 2020s as the result of retiring nuclear power plants, the widening gap is also because of expiring long-term contracts with Qatar and Oman. The ramp-up of new supply contracts from the Sabine Pass and Freeport LNG projects in the US are treated as fully flexible and we currently do not assume that all of these volumes will enter South Korea.
    • Regasification Tariffs
  • Key companies
    • Regulatory Overview
    • Policy overview
      • 12th Long-term Natural Gas Supply and Demand Plan

Tables and charts

This report includes 9 images and tables including:

  • Keys Facts
  • Recent contracting activity
  • Historical LNG Imports
  • Seasonal Profile
  • Breakeven cost stack of potential LNG supplies into market
  • Infrastructure: Image 1
  • LNG import terminals
  • Contracts: Image 1
  • Contracted LNG import outlook

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    01 south korea data 2016.xls

    XLS 401.00 KB

  • Document

    South Korea LNG long-term outlook 2016

    PDF 406.52 KB

  • Document

    South Korea LNG long-term outlook 2016

    ZIP 503.62 KB

  • Document

    Executive summary

    PDF 100.45 KB

  • Document

    Infrastructure

    PDF 178.33 KB

  • Document

    Contracts

    PDF 108.00 KB

  • Document

    Trade

    PDF 93.97 KB

  • Document

    Costs

    PDF 97.33 KB

  • Document

    Key companies

    PDF 55.88 KB

  • Document

    Policy and regulation

    PDF 86.74 KB

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