Commodity Market Report

South Korea LNG long-term outlook 2017 - dawn of a new gas era?

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24 November 2017

South Korea LNG long-term outlook 2017 - dawn of a new gas era?

Report summary

The election of President Moon as the 19th president of South Korea may have changed the energy landscape. Coal and nuclear accounted for 71% of electricity generated this year and their dominance was expected to be maintained throughout our current forecast. However, with the anti-coal and nuclear stance adopted by the new government, the outlook for both fuels has become uncertain. Should President Moon's electoral promises be fulfilled, coal and nuclear will slowly be replaced by gas and renewables from 2020. This could mean significant upside to gas and LNG demand. However, we hesitate to make drastic changes to our forecast based on electoral promises until more clarity on future generation mix is available when the 8th Long-term Electricity Supply and Demand Plan is published, potentially before the end of the 2017.

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
  • Infrastructure
  • Contracts
  • Trade
    • Short-term outlook
    • Mid to long-term outlook
    • High case
    • Contracted supply-demand balance
    • Breakeven cost stack of LNG supplies
  • Key companies
    • Regulatory overview
    • Policy overview
    • President Moon's energy policy
  • Risks and uncertainties

Tables and charts

This report includes 14 images and tables including:

  • Key facts (mmtpa)
  • LNG and gas infrastructure map
  • LNG import terminals
  • Contracting trend
  • Contracted LNG supply position by source (mmtpa)
  • Contracted LNG supply position by buyer (mmtpa)
  • Historical LNG imports (mmtpa)
  • Seasonal profile
  • Gas demand and LNG imports (mmtpa)
  • Generation mix (TWh)
  • Stock level (Mt)
  • Short-run coal-to-gas switching curve (US$/mmbtu)
  • Contracts versus LNG imports (mmtpa)
  • Costs: Image 1

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    01 south korea data 2017.xls

    XLS 383.00 KB

  • Document

    South Korea LNG long-term outlook 2017 - dawn of a new gas era?

    PDF 5.07 MB

  • Document

    South Korea LNG long-term outlook 2017 - dawn of a new gas era?

    ZIP 5.13 MB

  • Document

    Executive summary

    PDF 709.35 KB

  • Document

    Infrastructure

    PDF 4.98 MB

  • Document

    Contracts

    PDF 723.39 KB

  • Document

    Trade

    PDF 703.57 KB

  • Document

    Demand

    PDF 726.02 KB

  • Document

    Costs

    PDF 697.13 KB

  • Document

    Key companies

    PDF 677.74 KB

  • Document

    Policy and regulation

    PDF 700.15 KB

  • Document

    Risks and uncertainties

    PDF 677.69 KB