Commodity Market Report
Taiwan LNG long-term outlook 2019
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Report summary
LNG demand in Taiwan will remain around 16.6 Mt in 2019, about 0.5 Mt below 2018 imports. From 2020 to 2025, LNG demand will increase on average 5.2% a year, from 17.5 mmtpa to 22.5 mmtpa, as nuclear power capacity is shutdown. From 2026 until the end of our forecast in 2040, LNG demand will remain between 22.7 mmtpa and 24.9 mmtpa. The increase in electricity demand will be mainly met by renewables during this period. On the short-term, we observe a trend among North Asian countries of curtailing coal power capacity to mitigate pollution during winter months. This measure favours a higher utilisation of gas power plants. A full curtailment of Taichung’s coal power plant is expected to add about 0.2 Mt of LNG demand per month. Uncontracted LNG demand will grow from 4.8 mmtpa in 2021 to 10.0 mmtpa by 2026, remaining at this level until 2030. We expect CPC will be in the market for new long-term contracts to cover at least part of this rising uncontracted demand post-2025.
Table of contents
- LNG demand flat in the long-term but new contracted LNG needed
- CPC to lose monopoly of LNG imports by 2023
- Coal power curtailment in winter to boost short-term LNG demand
- Key companies
- Regulatory overview
- Third-party access
- Upcoming presidential elections crucial for the 2025 Non-Nuclear Homeland goal and pro-gas policy
-
Fuel mix
- Nuclear
- Coal
- Gas
- Renewables
- Short and medium-term LNG outlook
- Winter coal curtailment
- Long-term LNG outlook
- Indigenousgas supply outlook
- Historical LNG imports
- Seasonal profile
-
LNG terminal status and access
- Existing
- Proposed
- Regasification tariffs
-
LNG supply sources
- From Australia
- From Qatar
- From the United States
- From Mozambique
- From Papua New Guinea
- From Russia
- Portfolio volumes
Tables and charts
This report includes 20 images and tables including:
- Power generation outlook
- Fuel share on the energy mix
- LNG imports
- Seasonality
- Gas infrastructure map
- LNG importing terminals
- Regasification terminals ownership
- Regasification capacity by LNG importing terminal
- Taiwan gas demand
- LNG demand and regas capacity
- LNG supply-demand balance
- Domestic gas production and LNG imports
- LNG imports by regas terminal
- LNG contracts
- LNG contract prices
- End-user gas price calculation
- End-user gas prices
- Gas and supply costs
What's included
This report contains:
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