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Can oil riches sustain economic growth?: United Arab Emirates economic outlook H2 2016

Can oil riches sustain economic growth?: United Arab Emirates economic outlook H2 2016

Report summary

Fiscal pressure will increase in 2016 as the government's fiscal deficit deteriorates due to falling oil revenues. However, with vast holdings of reserve assets and good access to international financial markets, the government will have no trouble financing the deficit in the short term. Sustaining longer term growth will be more of challenge given that oil production will peak next decade and labour growth will slow dramatically. Can the UAE utilise vast oil wealth to diversify the economy?

What's included?

This report includes 2 file(s)

  • Country economic data United Arab Emirates Q3 2016.xls XLS - 138.00 KB
  • UAE economic outlook.pdf PDF - 1.07 MB


This Economic Outlook presents our macroeconomic outlook to 2035 at the country level.

Specifically we assess the structure of the economy and present the GDP and industrial production outlook.

The long-term outlook is underpinned by a set of GDP models which take account of long-term structural drivers of GDP including demographics, investment and productivity growth.

Finally, we highlight the key risks facing our outlook, both upside and downside.

Wood Mackenzie's macroeconomic forecasts underpin all our commodity demand analysis, ensuring we continually deliver an integrated and consistent view.

  • Executive summary
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