Commodity market report
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7 Pages

Canada economic outlook Q3 2014


Canada economic outlook Q3 2014

Report summary

The Canadian economy has been one of the better performing economies within the developed world over the past 5 years. A stable banking system allowed it to escape the worst of the financial crisis, while buoyant commodity prices have supported investment and exports. We expect the economy to continue to expand at a healthy pace, supported by stronger growth in the US, but elevated property prices and household debt are a key risk to stability.

What's included?

This report includes 1 file(s)

  • Canada economic outlook Q3 2014 PDF - 307.23 KB 7 Pages, 1 Tables, 10 Figures

Description

This Economic Outlook presents our macroeconomic outlook to 2035 at the country level.

Specifically we assess the structure of the economy and present the GDP and industrial production outlook.

The long-term outlook is underpinned by a set of GDP models which take account of long-term structural drivers of GDP including demographics, investment and productivity growth.

Finally, we highlight the key risks facing our outlook, both upside and downside.

Wood Mackenzie's macroeconomic forecasts underpin all our commodity demand analysis, ensuring we continually deliver an integrated and consistent view.

  • Executive summary
    • Economic Indicators
  • Market structure
  • Economic outlook
    • Short-term outlook
    • Trade
    • Investment
    • Whilst Canada's domestic recovery from the financial crisis has been relatively good, the challenging global market has contributed to the Bank of Canada maintaining historically low interest rates of 1% for a prolonged period. This accommodative monetary policy has supported exports and private sector borrowing, but it may have also created some problems. Cheap mortgage rates have led to record levels of household debt and rising property prices. Having doubled over the past ten years, average house prices continue to rise faster than incomes. We are concerned about what will happen when interest rates increase, likely from next year, and mortgage payments follow.
    • Long-term outlook
      • Real GDP (Annual Growth)
      • Population by Age Cohort
    • Exchange rate outlook
      • CAD to US$ exchange rate
  • Risks and uncertainties
    • Upside
    • Downside

In this report there are 11 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
    • Executive summary: Table 1
  • Market structure
    • GDP by sector (% of GDP)
    • Real GDP by expenditure (millions of Canadian dollars)
    • Resource extraction (% of value added)
    • Market structure: Image 4
  • Economic outlook
    • Economic outlook: Image 1
    • Economic outlook: Image 2
    • Economic outlook: Image 3
    • Economic outlook: Image 4
    • Economic outlook: Image 5
    • Economic outlook: Image 6
  • Risks and uncertainties
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Wood Mackenzie, a Verisk Analytics business, has been a trusted source of commercial intelligence for the world's natural resources sector for more than 40 years, empowering clients to make better strategic decisions with objective analysis and advice.

We work across every sector of oil, gas, power, renewables, chemicals, metals and mining, covering more than 150 countries. Our proprietary data and models are at the core of everything we do, ensuring our independent asset and company valuations are thoroughly robust and that we offer an accurate forward-looking view of economic indicators such as market supply, demand and price trends.

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