The Canadian economy has been one of the better performing economies within the developed world over the past 5 years. A stable banking system allowed it to escape the worst of the financial crisis, while buoyant commodity prices have supported investment and exports. We expect the economy to continue to expand at a healthy pace, supported by stronger growth in the US, but elevated property prices and household debt are a key risk to stability.
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Canada economic outlook Q3 2014 PDF - 307.23 KB 7 Pages, 1 Tables, 10 Figures
This Economic Outlook presents our macroeconomic outlook to 2035 at the country level.
Specifically we assess the structure of the economy and present the GDP and industrial production outlook.
The long-term outlook is underpinned by a set of GDP models which take account of long-term structural drivers of GDP including demographics, investment and productivity growth.
Finally, we highlight the key risks facing our outlook, both upside and downside.
Wood Mackenzie's macroeconomic forecasts underpin all our commodity demand analysis, ensuring we continually deliver an integrated and consistent view.
Whilst Canada's domestic recovery from the financial crisis has been relatively good, the challenging global market has contributed to the Bank of Canada maintaining historically low interest rates of 1% for a prolonged period. This accommodative monetary policy has supported exports and private sector borrowing, but it may have also created some problems. Cheap mortgage rates have led to record levels of household debt and rising property prices. Having doubled over the past ten years, average house prices continue to rise faster than incomes. We are concerned about what will happen when interest rates increase, likely from next year, and mortgage payments follow.
Real GDP (Annual Growth)
Population by Age Cohort
Exchange rate outlook
CAD to US$ exchange rate
Risks and uncertainties
In this report there are 11 tables or charts, including:
Executive summary: Table 1
GDP by sector (% of GDP)
Real GDP by expenditure (millions of Canadian dollars)
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Commodity market report | Sep 2014
Canada economic outlook Q3 2014
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