China downside sensitivity - The narrow path to reform

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Report summary

Using our proprietary Global Energy Balance Model (GEBM), Wood Mackenzie has developed a sensitivity to our base case in which China suffers a short, but deep downturn in economic growth through the 2015 - 2020 period. Global energy trade growth is severely curtailed by the events playing out in the sensitivity, shrinking by an average of 0.4% per year.

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    China downside sensitivity - The narrow path to reform

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    China downside sensitivity - The narrow path to reform

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    Narrow Path to Reform Insight.pdf

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Table of contents

  • Executive summary
  • Introduction
    • Economic impacts beyond China
    • Imports fall faster than demand; energy self-sufficiency improves
  • China accounts for more than 30% of lost oil demand by 2020
  • Oil prices weaken significantly, but there is little solace for China
  • European gas consumers benefit from weak global demand growth
  • Russia pushes additional crude into Europe, but loses gas market share
  • North America's energy export future called into question?
  • Global energy trade growth slows; Middle East fares worst of oil producing regions
  • Conclusion

Tables and charts

This report includes 13 images and tables including:


  • China GDP and GDP growth, base case vs. sensitivity
  • Lost economic output 2020, relative to base case
  • China end-use demand by sector 2010 - 2020
  • China primary energy demand by fuel 2010 - 2020
  • Regional oil demand (sensitivity) vs. demand change (sensitivity to base) 2010 - 2020
  • Brent price base case vs. sensitivity 2010 - 2020
  • China vs. US net oil imports 2010 - 2020
  • Europe LNG imports, sensitivity vs. base 2010 - 2020
  • Additional gas supply creates downside price pressure
  • Russia 2020 energy exports by region and commodity, sensitivity vs. base case
  • N America energy trade balance 2010 - 2020
  • N America 2020 exports by region and commodity
  • Regional oil production (sensitivity) vs. Middle East production change (sensitivity to base) 2010 - 2020

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