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11 Pages

China downside sensitivity - The narrow path to reform


China downside sensitivity - The narrow path to reform

Report summary

Using our proprietary Global Energy Balance Model (GEBM), Wood Mackenzie has developed a sensitivity to our base case in which China suffers a short, but deep downturn in economic growth through the 2015 - 2020 period. Global energy trade growth is severely curtailed by the events playing out in the sensitivity, shrinking by an average of 0.4% per year.

What's included?

This report includes 2 file(s)

  • China downside sensitivity - The narrow path to reform PDF - 659.05 KB 11 Pages, 0 Tables, 13 Figures
  • Narrow Path to Reform Insight.pdf PDF - 1.92 MB

Description

This Macroeconomics and Global Trends Insight report presents our research on this key topic, and draws out the implications for economies and commodity markets.

This report delivers a clear understanding of our unique global economic outlook and identify risks and uncertainties to watch out for.

Wood Mackenzie's global trends and macroeconomic analysis underpins all our commodity demand analysis, ensuring we continually deliver an integrated and consistent view.

Our comprehensive understanding of commodity markets gives us a unique insight into the pace of global development and the risks associated with it.

  • Executive summary
  • Introduction
  • The narrow path to reform
    • Economic impacts beyond China
  • China's demand growth is curtailed, but there are few structural changes to fuel demand
    • Imports fall faster than demand; energy self-sufficiency improves
  • China accounts for more than 30% of lost oil demand by 2020
  • Oil prices weaken significantly, but there is little solace for China
  • European gas consumers benefit from weak global demand growth
  • Russia pushes additional crude into Europe, but loses gas market share
  • North America's energy export future called into question?
  • Global energy trade growth slows; Middle East fares worst of oil producing regions
  • Conclusion

In this report there are 13 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
  • Introduction
  • The narrow path to reform
    • China GDP and GDP growth, base case vs. sensitivity
    • Lost economic output 2020, relative to base case
  • China's demand growth is curtailed, but there are few structural changes to fuel demand
    • China end-use demand by sector 2010 - 2020
    • China primary energy demand by fuel 2010 - 2020
  • China accounts for more than 30% of lost oil demand by 2020
    • Regional oil demand (sensitivity) vs. demand change (sensitivity to base) 2010 - 2020
  • Oil prices weaken significantly, but there is little solace for China
    • Brent price base case vs. sensitivity 2010 - 2020
    • China vs. US net oil imports 2010 - 2020
  • European gas consumers benefit from weak global demand growth
    • Europe LNG imports, sensitivity vs. base 2010 - 2020
    • Additional gas supply creates downside price pressure
  • Russia pushes additional crude into Europe, but loses gas market share
    • Russia 2020 energy exports by region and commodity, sensitivity vs. base case
  • North America's energy export future called into question?
    • N America energy trade balance 2010 - 2020
    • N America 2020 exports by region and commodity
  • Global energy trade growth slows; Middle East fares worst of oil producing regions
    • Regional oil production (sensitivity) vs. Middle East production change (sensitivity to base) 2010 - 2020
  • Conclusion
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