Commodity market report
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4 Pages

China exchange rate outlook Q2 2016

China exchange rate outlook Q2 2016

Report summary

Our short-term outlook for the renminbi has been downgraded. We expect the renminbi to continue to depreciate in 2016. The weaker currency outlook is primarily due to slower GDP, with policy makers allowing limited currency depreciation to support export competitiveness and stabilise short-term economic growth. China's GDP growth is forecast to slow from 6.9% in 2015 and 6.4% this year. We forecast modest depreciation to 6.68 in 2016, and to a low of 6.92 in 2018.

What's included?

This report includes 1 file(s)

  • China exchange rate outlook Q2 2016 PDF - 387.51 KB 4 Pages, 1 Tables, 6 Figures


This Exchange Rate Outlook presents Wood Mackenzie's annual bilateral exchange rate forecast to 2035.

Our comprehensive understanding of commodity markets gives us a unique insight into the outlook for commodity currencies.

We forecast bilateral exchange rates by assessing fundamental drivers, including interest rate differentials, relative economic growth rates, productivity of the tradable goods sector, and the current account balance.

Wood Mackenzie's macroeconomic forecasts underpin all our commodity demand analysis, ensuring we continually deliver an integrated and consistent view.

  • Executive summary

In this report there are 7 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
    • Exchange rate forecasts
    • CNY per USD
    • Real Trade Weighted Exchange Rate Index
    • Current Account Balance
    • Capital account balance
    • Trade balance
    • Exchange rate comparison
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