Commodity market report

China exchange rate outlook Q2 2016

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Report summary

Our short-term outlook for the renminbi has been downgraded. We expect the renminbi to continue to depreciate in 2016. The weaker currency outlook is primarily due to slower GDP, with policy makers allowing limited currency depreciation to support export competitiveness and stabilise short-term economic growth. China's GDP growth is forecast to slow from 6.9% in 2015 and 6.4% this year. We forecast modest depreciation to 6.68 in 2016, and to a low of 6.92 in 2018.

What's included

This report contains

  • Document

    China exchange rate outlook Q2 2016

    PDF 387.51 KB

  • Document

    Executive summary

    PDF 228.15 KB

Table of contents

  • Executive summary

Tables and charts

This report includes 7 images and tables including:


  • CNY per USD
  • Real Trade Weighted Exchange Rate Index
  • Current Account Balance
  • Capital account balance
  • Trade balance
  • Exchange rate comparison


  • Exchange rate forecasts

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