China's car fleet has seen phenomenal growth over the past 15 years. Growing from 8 million in 2000 to 140 million in 2015, its fleet is second only to the US. However, its car penetration remains low on a per capita basis compared with other major countries. Does this imply huge untapped potential? Will China eventually reach car penetration levels similar to the US or will it follow lower European levels? Underpinning the demand for key commodities including oil, steel, lead, aluminium and plastics, it is critical to understand the outlook for China’s car fleet. Our China auto view is underpinned by a detailed proprietary model assessing car saturation levels, income distribution projections, and provincial car fleet.