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China's Two Sessions: setting the boundaries for reform

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15 April 2015

China's Two Sessions: setting the boundaries for reform

Report summary

China's leadership has set boundaries for pursuing economic reform that limit downside risks to China's energy and metals demand in 2015. The government will not allow unemployment to rise above 4.5%, fiscal deficits below RMB 1.62 trillion, or financial risks to become unmanageable. If any of these are at risk of being breached the government will back-off its reform agenda.

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
  • Introduction
  • Economy: reforms being pursued but not at any cost
    • Upstream: focus on capital discipline; broad consolidation unlikely
    • Steel and metals: fully open to foreign investment but pace will be slow
    • Coal: politics trump reform
      • Coal production
      • The environment: clear priority, but new rules may lose out to GDP
      • Final thoughts

Tables and charts

This report includes 3 images and tables including:

  • Economic targets
  • Gas production by company
  • China's Two Sessions: setting the boundaries for reform: Image 3

What's included

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  • Document

    China's Two Sessions: setting the boundaries for reform

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