Electric Vehicle Service: H1 2019 long-term outlook Report

Commodity Market Report 09 September 2019

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For the coming decade, the main driver for global EV adoption will shift gradually from government policies towards genuine competitiveness.

What’s the key takeaway from this report?

Wood Mackenzie forecasts electric vehicle sales (including autonomous) to increase from 2 million units in 2018 to over 42 million units by 2040. However, this scale of EV penetration will not come without challenges.

Why buy this report?

Get a complete view of how the next two decades will play out in advanced transportation
Benefit from our integrated analysis of the EV value chain across three key industries: mining, power and oil/fuels
Understand both the challenges to EV adoption and what has the potential to accelerate it, including:
- Regional policy changes
- Investment in new car models with higher ranges and lower cost
- Advances in battery chemistry and availability of battery raw materials

This report comes with datasets and charts, including this one, tracking the fall in battery costs between now and 2040. This substantial drop in battery costs will be a key factor in helping EVs to go mainstream during the 2030s. Scroll down for the full table of contents.

A chart showing how battery costs for electric vehicles will fall out to 2040

Report summary

We are pleased to release our inaugural global Electric Vehicles Outlook to 2040 – an integrated mobility and natural resources value chain assessment of how the next two decades may play out in advanced transportation. Tightening environmental norms are prioritising transport sector decarbonisation worldwide. The report is Wood Mackenzie’s thesis of electrification of transport in key markets, evolution of battery technologies and implications for power, oils, metals and chemicals demand.

Overview
Global EV sales and stock forecast
Market drivers and regional dynamics
- Europe
- United States
- China
Autonomous electric vehicles (AEVs)
E-trucking
Auto cost and model trends
Battery chemistry and technology trends
Metals
Oil and oil products
Power
- Europe
- North America
- Asia Pacific
Infrastructure and charging
- Level 1 charging
- Level 2 charging
- Level 3 charging (CHAdeMO)
- Critical factors affecting future growth in EV uptake
- Regional highlights
- Europe
- North America
- Asia Pacific
- Residential charging market
- Europe
- North America
- Residential charging equipment market to surpass US$1 billion in both North America and Europe
- Public charging market
- Europe
- North America
- Total public charging equipment market value expected to surpass $6.4 billion
- Why do EVs matter for regulated utilities?
Plastics, thermoplastics and chemicals