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Global economy Q1 2016: Commodity crash to cause global recession?


Global economy Q1 2016: Commodity crash to cause global recession?

Report summary

Global economic headwinds are strengthening. We have been concerned for some time about China's slowdown, developments in monetary policy, and the sustainability of growth in the developed world. Low commodity prices are adding fuel to the fire. Could turmoil for resource producers be the trigger for the next global economic slowdown? Developments in early 2016 suggest this is very possible. 

What's included?

This report includes 1 file(s)

  • Global economy Q1 2016: Commodity crash to cause global recession? PDF - 1.04 MB 10 Pages, 0 Tables, 14 Figures

Description

This Macroeconomics and Global Trends Insight report presents our research on this key topic, and draws out the implications for economies and commodity markets.

This report delivers a clear understanding of our unique global economic outlook and identify risks and uncertainties to watch out for.

Wood Mackenzie's global trends and macroeconomic analysis underpins all our commodity demand analysis, ensuring we continually deliver an integrated and consistent view.

Our comprehensive understanding of commodity markets gives us a unique insight into the pace of global development and the risks associated with it.

  • Tumbling commodity prices – boon or bane?
  • Commodity producers: weathering the storm?
  • What are the broader risks of a resource producer slowdown?
  • USA - the illusive economic growth 'support' from low oil price
  • China – full circle as commodity price collapse comes back to bite
  • Europe and Japan: the beneficiaries of low oil prices?
  • Conclusion

In this report there are 14 tables or charts, including:

  • Tumbling commodity prices – boon or bane?
    • Commodity price collapse
  • Commodity producers: weathering the storm?
    • Key commodity producers GDP index (real)
    • Net fiscal balance (% of GDP)
    • Middle East fiscal balances highly sensitive to oil price
  • What are the broader risks of a resource producer slowdown?
    • Global economy Q1 2016: Commodity crash to cause global recession?: Image 5
    • Contribution to real global GDP growth
  • USA - the illusive economic growth 'support' from low oil price
    • Real gross state product indices
    • Global economy Q1 2016: Commodity crash to cause global recession?: Image 8
    • US employment - gains and losses, cumulative
    • US consumption indices vs oil price
  • China – full circle as commodity price collapse comes back to bite
    • Global economy Q1 2016: Commodity crash to cause global recession?: Image 11
    • Overcapacity and estimated layoffs
  • Europe and Japan: the beneficiaries of low oil prices?
    • Official policy interest rates
    • Consumer confidence indices
  • Conclusion
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Wood Mackenzie, a Verisk Analytics business, has been a trusted source of commercial intelligence for the world's natural resources sector for more than 40 years, empowering clients to make better strategic decisions with objective analysis and advice.

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