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Global economy Q1 2016: Commodity crash to cause global recession?

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Report summary

Global economic headwinds are strengthening. We have been concerned for some time about China's slowdown developments in monetary policy and the sustainability of growth in the developed world. Low commodity prices are adding fuel to the fire. Could turmoil for resource producers be the trigger for the next global economic slowdown? Developments in early 2016 suggest this is very possible.

What's included

This report contains

  • Document

    Global economy Q1 2016: Commodity crash to cause global recession?

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Table of contents

  • Tumbling commodity prices – boon or bane?
  • Commodity producers: weathering the storm?
  • What are the broader risks of a resource producer slowdown?
  • USA - the illusive economic growth 'support' from low oil price
  • China – full circle as commodity price collapse comes back to bite
  • Europe and Japan: the beneficiaries of low oil prices?
  • Conclusion

Tables and charts

This report includes 14 images and tables including:

Images

  • Commodity price collapse
  • Key commodity producers GDP index (real)
  • Net fiscal balance (% of GDP)
  • Middle East fiscal balances highly sensitive to oil price
  • Global economy Q1 2016: Commodity crash to cause global recession?: Image 5
  • Contribution to real global GDP growth
  • Real gross state product indices
  • Global economy Q1 2016: Commodity crash to cause global recession?: Image 8
  • US employment - gains and losses, cumulative
  • US consumption indices vs oil price
  • Global economy Q1 2016: Commodity crash to cause global recession?: Image 11
  • Overcapacity and estimated layoffs
  • Official policy interest rates
  • Consumer confidence indices

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