Attention shifts to the priorities of the Trump administration. US energy is a potential winner, but much remains unknown; a fluid uncertainty may be the tenor of Trump's time in office. The Paris Agreement looks under threat, but could China seek to adopt the nebulous role of 'climate leadership?' If so, will the rest of the world follow? Renewables and electric vehicles are in the ascendant, but could political changes in the United States revitalise demand in the world's largest oil market? Energy companies should see a muted recovery. We expect the US L48 to drive an uptick in global investment, signalling the end of the downturn. Meanwhile, OPEC has painted itself into a corner. The group may still control oil prices to some degree, but whatever OPEC does in the future, the benefits of that control will accrue to parties elsewhere. But populism is the most potent risk, and sudden shocks can and should be expected over the next 12 months. 2017 could be a delicate year.