In this Insight we discuss the key themes of the short-term outlook and explain the long-term H1 2016 GDP downgrade at the China regional and provincial level. What are the key drivers of provincial GDP growth? Which province will benefit the most from the existing policy agenda and who will lose out? We also provide a concise update on the development of key policies impacting the provincial outlook – Capital Economic Circle, Yangtze River Economic Belt and One Belt One Road. China's provinces are at risk of a deep economic slowdown. GDP growth is expected to be volatile in the short term as industrial overcapacity, property destocking and high local government debt pose headwinds. Longer term, Wood Mackenzie has cut the GDP outlook for China in H1 2016. What does this mean at the provincial level? The economic outlook will differ significantly across regions.