Insight
Low oil prices and prolonged sanctions: How will Russia adapt?
Report summary
Through low oil prices and sanctions, Russia looks to be sorely tested in 2015 and beyond. A recession is expected in 2015 and long-term oil supply growth is under threat. Geopolitical tensions between Russia and the west will increase the longer the Ukraine crisis goes unresolved. Russia’s efforts to establish stronger energy trade ties with China will accelerate.
What's included
This report contains
Table of contents
- Low oil prices and sanctions created turmoil in 2014
-
How will Russia adapt if sanctions and low oil prices persist?
- Liquids production will remain largely unaffected in the short to medium term
- Oil and gas financing may prove more problematic
- Economic stagnation will remain
- Government spending compromised
- Continued co-dependency with Europe in the long term, but shift East will accelerate
-
Risks
- More economic turbulence ahead
- Erosion of the President’s support base could lead to more unpredictable foreign policy
- Gas exports and long term oil supply growth in danger
- Conclusion
Tables and charts
This report includes 3 images and tables including:
Images
- Brent price (US$/bbl), vs rouble exchange rate (RUB/US$), and major events in 2014
- Russia liquids production 2014 - 2035
- Brent oil price January 2014 - January 2015, US$ vs RUB
Questions about this report?
-
Europe:+44 131 243 4699
-
Americas:+1 713 470 1900
-
Asia Pacific:+61 2 8224 8898