Insight
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9 Pages

Low oil prices for two years - five outcomes of an $80 Brent world


Low oil prices for two years - five outcomes of an $80 Brent world

Report summary

Brent has fallen to $80 per barrel. Here, in a sensitivity to Wood Mackenzie’s base case, we illustrate five likely outcomes of two years of low oil prices. Russia is forced into recession and the geopolitical complexion of the Middle East changes. Corporates are forced to adapt, but US tight oil is resilient to lower prices. China will feel the benefits of lower prices and global economic growth will be boosted, accelerating the commodity cycle.

What's included?

This report includes 1 file(s)

  • Low oil prices for two years - five outcomes of an $80 Brent world PDF - 354.12 KB 9 Pages, 0 Tables, 6 Figures

Description

This Macroeconomics and Global Trends Insight report presents our research on this key topic, and draws out the implications for economies and commodity markets.

This report delivers a clear understanding of our unique global economic outlook and identify risks and uncertainties to watch out for.

Wood Mackenzie's global trends and macroeconomic analysis underpins all our commodity demand analysis, ensuring we continually deliver an integrated and consistent view.

Our comprehensive understanding of commodity markets gives us a unique insight into the pace of global development and the risks associated with it.

  • Executive Summary
  • Introduction - oil prices shrug off geopolitical concerns
  • Five likely outcomes
    • Russia comes under pressure, but Putin is secure
    • The geopolitical landscape of the Middle East becomes more complex
      • Iran
      • Iraq
      • Saudi Arabia
    • Corporates will be forced to adapt…
    • …but US tight oil production growth is resilient
    • Energy importers will cheer
  • Conclusion – broad economic benefits and an accelerated commodity cycle

In this report there are 6 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive Summary
  • Introduction - oil prices shrug off geopolitical concerns
  • Five likely outcomes
    • OPEC crude oil production capacity 2014 - 2030
    • OPEC crude oil production capacity growth 2014 - 2030
    • Brent price required to retain current net debt levels 2015 - 2016
    • US tight oil new development volumes by breakeven ($WTI)
    • Oil import cost, US dollars
    • Oil import cost index, domestic currency
  • Conclusion – broad economic benefits and an accelerated commodity cycle
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Wood Mackenzie, a Verisk Analytics business, has been a trusted source of commercial intelligence for the world's natural resources sector for more than 40 years, empowering clients to make better strategic decisions with objective analysis and advice.

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