Brent has fallen to $80 per barrel. Here, in a sensitivity to Wood Mackenzie’s base case, we illustrate five likely outcomes of two years of low oil prices. Russia is forced into recession and the geopolitical complexion of the Middle East changes. Corporates are forced to adapt, but US tight oil is resilient to lower prices. China will feel the benefits of lower prices and global economic growth will be boosted, accelerating the commodity cycle.