Country report
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28 Pages

Mexico risk profile

Mexico risk profile

Report summary

The oil industry is being transformed following the 2013 Energy Reform, which liberalised the sector. Mexico has large hydrocarbon potential, including deep water, tight oil, heavy oil and unconventional plays. Companies will be able to partner with state-owned Pemex or operate on their own in Round One, launched in 2015. While development risks are likely to rise as E&P activities pick up pace, the overall above ground risk profile is anticipated to substantially improve in the near term.

What's included?

This report includes 2 file(s)

  • Mexico risk profile PDF - 1013.35 KB 28 Pages, 4 Tables, 10 Figures
  • Research methodology country and asset risk.pdf PDF - 251.22 KB


Much of the world's resource-rich acreage tends to be located in politically volatile parts of the world. Sustainable growth for oil & gas companies often entails evaluating opportunities beyond familiar borders.

This country risk report provides risk analysis for the upstream oil and gas industry across the asset life cycle – from access through development and commercialisation. We leverage our on-the-ground risk intelligence to assess and forecast risk along 21 risk factors out to 2020.

Potential investors, governments and companies in the oil and gas sector can use it to gain a better understanding of the critical risk issues at a country and basin level (on high-profile basins) to define entry or exit strategies. Use it for opportunity screenings and to develop risk mitigation strategies.

Wood Mackenzie’s in-depth insight on assets, companies and markets is complemented by Verisk Maplecroft’s industry-leading global risk analytics and expertise to develop these country risk reports. We deliver an unrivalled commercial intelligence portfolio for the world’s natural resource markets, helping you make complete risk-adjusted decisions that will strengthen your operations and supply chains.

For more information on the spectrum of risk products available for the extractives sector, please contact

  • Executive summary
  • Political developments
  • Policy and regulation
    • Key Legislation
      • 2008 and 2013 Energy Reform
    • Reputational risk
  • Country risks
    • I. Access Risks
      • 1. Ease of entry
      • 2. Fiscal system
      • Fiscal system - 0.5
      • 3. Contract sanctity
      • Contract sanctity - 0.0
      • 4. State presence
      • State presence - 0.5
      • 5. Regulation
      • Regulation - 0.25
      • 6. Corruption
      • Corruption - 0.75
      • 7. Geopolitics
      • Geopolitics - 0.25
    • II. Development Risks
      • 8. Labour activism
      • Labour activism - 0.5
      • 9. Natural hazards
      • Natural hazards - 0.25
      • 10. Civil unrest
      • Civil unrest - 0.25
      • 11. Security
      • Security - 0.75
      • 12. Environment
      • Environment - 0.25
      • 13. Supply chain
      • Supply chain - 0.25
      • 14. Local content
      • Local content - 0.25
    • III. Commercialisation Risks
      • 15. Infrastructure
      • Infrastructure - 0.5
      • 16. Fiscal stability
      • Fiscal stability - 0.0
      • 17. Pricing
      • Pricing - 0.25
      • As part of the 2013 Energy Reform, IOCs will be able to commercialise oil and refined product as they wish. Pemex's pricing formulas should remain unchanged, as they only apply to existing long term contracts with current clients. Depending on a project's partners, additional oil production could be priced in the spot market or used directly by the producer for refining. Mexico currently exports three types of oil-blends: Maya, Olmeca and Isthmus. The prices of these crudes are based on a formula that depends on the price of other international crude streams and a constant "k" factor of adjustment that is determined monthly by the Ministry of Energy (SENER) and the Ministry of Finance. Gas pricing is controlled by the Energy Regulatory Commission (CRE) and is determined by a formula that includes production and/or importing costs, transport and logistic costs. It is moving towards a more market-based system, pegged to the Henry Hub benchmark, A separate Mexico natural gas benchmark price is also a possibility. LNG import prices are indexed to Henry Hub. Most of Mexico's LNG is contracted by the public power utility (CFE) and this higher cost gas is largely passed onto the industrial sector. Separately, domestic prices of gasoline have historically been subsidised, but on 1 January 2015 these were adjusted upwards by 1.9%. While a strategy to liberalise prices with a managed float in 2016 backfired, full liberalisation of the gasoline price market is expected in 2018. In a similar regard, the government has sped up the liberalisation of the gasoline and diesel markets by allowing the private sector to import fuels beginning in April 2016 instead of January 2017 as originally planned.
      • 18. Currency risk
      • 19. Domestic market obligation
      • Domestic market obligation - 0.0
      • 20. Gas market access
      • Gas market access - 0.5
      • 21. OPEC compliance
      • OPEC compliance - 0.0
  • Risk matrix
    • Mexico Risk Matrix - 2016
  • Basin watch
    • Chicontepec Basin assets
      • Access
      • Development
      • Commercialisation
        • Chicontepec Basin map
        • Perdido Area Basin assets
          • Access
          • Development
          • Commercialisation
            • Perdido Area Basin map
            • The Northern Basins assets
              • Access
              • Development
              • Commercialisation
                • The Northern Basins map

In this report there are 14 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
    • Asset Risk Index (ARI) summary - 2016
    • Asset Risk Index (ARI) forecast - Mexico
    • Asset Risk Index (ARI) historical & forecast data – Mexico
  • Political developments
    • Political map
    • Political facts
  • Policy and regulation
    • Oil supply-demand balance
    • Gas supply-demand balance
    • Key Ministries and Agencies
    • 2013 Energy Reform summary
  • Country risks
  • Risk matrix
    • Risk matrix: Image 1
  • Basin watch
    • Basin watch: Image 1
    • Basin watch: Image 2
    • Basin watch: Image 3
    • Location map
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