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7 Pages

Oil Price: How Low Can It Go?

Oil Price: How Low Can It Go?

Report summary

Oil price volatility returned with a vengeance in October. A combination of factors triggered a decline in oil prices of about $15 per barrel to $85 per barrel for Brent. If the market nerves are warranted, and oil demand growth slumps significantly in 2015, oil prices could fall further. In this insight, we explore the price decline and how low prices could go through US tight oil and probable development break even price analysis.

What's included?

This report includes 1 file(s)

  • Oil Price: How Low Can It Go? PDF - 290.02 KB 7 Pages, 0 Tables, 5 Figures


This Macroeconomics and Global Trends Insight report presents our research on this key topic, and draws out the implications for economies and commodity markets.

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  • Executive Summary
    • Fading oil demand growth in 2014 highlights the risk for oil prices
    • Global supply outages have recently offset growth in US tight oil… What lies ahead?
    • US role as driver of non-OPEC production growth explains the significance of tight oil breakeven prices
    • Most US tight oil plays are economic with WTI above $70 per barrel
      • Chart 4 - US tight oil new development volumes by breakeven (SWTI)
    • New developments around the world help provide a floor for prices over the medium to long term
  • Conclusion

In this report there are 5 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive Summary
    • Chart 1 - Change in oil supply/demand forecast for 2014
    • Chart 2 - US tight oil growth keeping pace with rise in losses
    • Chart 3 - Non-OPEC oil/NGL supply growth by key country
    • Oil Price: How Low Can It Go?: Image 4
    • Chart 5 - Conventional new development volumes by breakeven ($Brent, not $WTI as in the US tight oil illustration)
  • Conclusion
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