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OPEC's decision to retain current production ceiling undermines potential for near term price recovery

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28 November 2014

OPEC's decision to retain current production ceiling undermines potential for near term price recovery

Report summary

On 27 November, OPEC held its bi-annual meeting in Vienna and retained its current production ceiling to 2015.  Oil prices have declined by around 36% since June, due to weakening demand in Europe, Japan and China, combined with steady gains in US oil production and Saudi Arabia's protection of its Asia market share.  Retention of OPEC production levels clearly puts the outlook for oil demand growth as the continued focus of crude oil pricing and, in its absence, tight oil breakeven economics.  

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  • Event
  • Implications

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  • Figure 1: 2014 & 2015 oil demand/supply balance

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    OPEC's decision to retain current production ceiling undermines potential for near term price recovery

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