The Paris Agreement comes into force on November 4th 2016, imposing greenhouse gas emissions limits on countries across the globe. Based on preliminary H2 2016 data, Wood Mackenzie expects the emission goal implied by the current version of the Paris Agreement to be missed. Developed countries have committed to emissions cuts that they will be unable to make without additional efforts to decarbonise their economies. Emerging markets should meet their NDC targets with relative ease, and some may choose to adopt stricter limits, particularly if there is ground to be gained by 'climate leadership.' Continued pressure on emissions growth is a reliable bet, and hydrocarbon fuel consumption is in the firing line. A formalised global policy framework favouring low-carbon energy challenges the traditional business models in oil and gas production, coal extraction and power utilities in the longer run. A lower-carbon future looms, challenging countries and companies to innovate and adapt.