Insight
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7 Pages

Q3 2014 Macroeconomics Update: Three possible triggers of the next recession


Q3 2014 Macroeconomics Update: Three possible triggers of the next recession

Report summary

Global growth prospects are forecast to gradually improve over the next few years, but risks – mainly to the downside – are significant. Five of the G8 economies (including the US and Japan) have endured at least one quarter of GDP contraction this year, highlighting the fragility of global growth. Is this just a temporary blip or has volatile growth become standard in an increasingly uncertain world? In this Insight we identify and assess the implications of three key risks to global growth.


What's included?

This report includes 4 file(s)

  • Q3 2014 Macroeconomics Update: Three possible triggers of the next recession PDF - 419.56 KB 7 Pages, 0 Tables, 9 Figures
  • GDP Forecast Jul 2014.xls XLS - 1.54 MB
  • IP Forecast Jul 2014.xls XLS - 1.38 MB
  • Latest Population Forecast (with charts).xls XLS - 3.55 MB

Description

This Macroeconomics and Global Trends Insight report presents our research on this key topic, and draws out the implications for economies and commodity markets.

This report delivers a clear understanding of our unique global economic outlook and identify risks and uncertainties to watch out for.

Wood Mackenzie's global trends and macroeconomic analysis underpins all our commodity demand analysis, ensuring we continually deliver an integrated and consistent view.

Our comprehensive understanding of commodity markets gives us a unique insight into the pace of global development and the risks associated with it.

  • Executive Summary
  • Risks amid recovery
  • China: at risk from itself?
  • Cheap money cannot and should not last forever
  • Ageing demographic - more debt troubles to come?
    • Number of retired supported by 100 working age people
  • Conclusion

In this report there are 9 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive Summary
  • Risks amid recovery
    • Growth outlook of key economies
    • US Real GDP with recession bands
  • China: at risk from itself?
    • Chinese property prices continue to fall
    • 125 million more people to move to cities by 2020
    • China's long-term GDP growth forecast
    • Rise of consumption is a key risk
  • Cheap money cannot and should not last forever
    • Developed world interest rates to rise
    • Gross government debt per working age capita
  • Ageing demographic - more debt troubles to come?
    • Q3 2014 Macroeconomics Update: Three possible triggers of the next recession: Image 9
  • Conclusion
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