Insight

Radical disruption: carbon-constrained scenario 2017

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Report summary

Our latest Thought Leadership Insight examines what happens when factors which could radically reshape energy markets become entrenched. The carbon-constrained scenario accelerates the impact of electric vehicles, renewables, and energy efficiency. It builds an increased role for energy storage technologies, and provides access to decarbonised electricity across the developing world. It posits a world in which the energy industry, policymakers and the general public are focused on minimising the environmental impacts of their behaviour. Oversupply is weighing heavily on oil prices, so the prospect of peak demand in 2025 is an uncomfortable one for producers. Meanwhile, momentum is building within business to adapt. Companies building diversity into portfolios will be best placed to adapt to a radically-changed landscape. But the time to adapt is now – the dynamics of marginal change mean markets will be reshaped sooner than the industry is currently prepared to acknowledge.

What's included

This report contains

  • Document

    Radical disruption: carbon-constrained scenario 2017

    PDF 438.96 KB

Table of contents

  • Executive summary: radical market disruption by consistent marginal change
  • Introduction: Fossil fuels dominate demand in 2035, but have ceded market control
  • Consumer preference, efficiency and EVs drive peak oil demand by 2025
  • Renewables threaten the long-term growth of gas demand
  • The future is renewable – but trillions in investment required
  • Conclusion

Tables and charts

This report includes 9 images and tables including:

Images

  • World energy demand (scenario), 2000-2035
  • World energy demand change (scenario), 2015-35
  • EV share of vehicle fleet, 2015 – 2035 (carbon-constrained scenario)
  • Regional gas demand compound annual growth, 2015 – 2035
  • Global gas demand (scenario), 2015 - 2035
  • Fuel into power gas demand (scenario), 2015 – 2035
  • World change in power output, 2015 – 2035
  • Renewables capital cost, 2015 – 2035
  • World CO2 emissions, base case vs. alternative scenarios, 2010 – 2035

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