Radical disruption: carbon-constrained scenario 2017

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Report summary

Our latest Thought Leadership Insight examines what happens when factors which could radically reshape energy markets become entrenched. The carbon constrained scenario accelerates the impact of electric vehicles renewables and energy efficiency. It builds an increased role for energy storage technologies and provides access to decarbonised electricity across the developing world. It posits a world in which the energy industry policymakers and the general public are focused on minimising the environmental impacts of their behaviour. Oversupply is weighing heavily on oil prices so the prospect of peak demand in 2025 is an uncomfortable one for producers. Meanwhile momentum is building within business to adapt. Companies building diversity into portfolios will be best placed to adapt to a radically changed landscape. But the time to adapt is now the dynamics of marginal change mean markets will be reshaped sooner than the industry is currently prepared to acknowledge.

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    Radical disruption: carbon-constrained scenario 2017

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Table of contents

Tables and charts

This report includes 9 images and tables including:


  • World energy demand (scenario), 2000-2035
  • World energy demand change (scenario), 2015-35
  • EV share of vehicle fleet, 2015 – 2035 (carbon-constrained scenario)
  • Regional gas demand compound annual growth, 2015 – 2035
  • Global gas demand (scenario), 2015 - 2035
  • Fuel into power gas demand (scenario), 2015 – 2035
  • World change in power output, 2015 – 2035
  • Renewables capital cost, 2015 – 2035
  • World CO2 emissions, base case vs. alternative scenarios, 2010 – 2035

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