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7 Pages

Alumina and aluminium incentive price; 2015 update


Alumina and aluminium incentive price; 2015 update

Report summary

Wood Mackenzie's alumina price forecast are projected to be modestly higher than the calculated incentive price of $360/t (2015 US$) in the period 2016-2020, before rising sharply in the early 2020s.  Therefore, we do not project refinery supply constrains in the coming years. In contrast, our base case aluminium price is projected to remain below the incentive price of $2300/t for the remainder of this decade, increasing the risks of a smelter supply crunch in the first few years after 2020.

What's included?

This report includes 1 file(s)

  • Alumina and aluminium incentive price; 2015 update PDF - 318.70 KB 7 Pages, 2 Tables, 6 Figures

Description

This Metals Insight report highlights the key issues surrounding this topic, and draws out the implications for those involved.

For industry participants and advisors who want to look at the trends, risks and issues surrounding this topic, this report gives you an expert point of view to help inform your decision making.

Our analysts are based in the markets they analyse and work with high-quality proprietary data to provide consistent and reliable insight.

We provide unique in-depth analysis of the metals supply industry so you can make confident strategic decisions.

  • Executive summary
  • China's contribution to future supply projected to decline
  • Operating costs outpace prices
  • Capex continues to rise
    • Smelter capital intensity outside of China, 1980-2014 (US$/t installed capacity)
  • Ample future refinery capacity and temporary tightness in smelter supply
  • Rationale, risks and IRR methodology
  • Assumptions used to construct incentive prices

In this report there are 8 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
  • China's contribution to future supply projected to decline
    • Alumina and aluminium incentive price; 2015 update: Image 1
    • Alumina and aluminium incentive price; 2015 update: Image 2
  • Operating costs outpace prices
    • Alumina and aluminium incentive price; 2015 update: Image 3
    • Alumina and aluminium incentive price; 2015 update: Image 4
  • Capex continues to rise
    • Alumina and aluminium incentive price; 2015 update: Table 1
    • Alumina and aluminium incentive price; 2015 update: Table 2
  • Ample future refinery capacity and temporary tightness in smelter supply
    • Historical and equilibrium alumina prices (2015 US$/t alumina)
    • Historical and equilibrium prices (2015 US$/t aluminium)
  • Rationale, risks and IRR methodology
  • Assumptions used to construct incentive prices
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