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6 Pages

Energy revolution leaves US aluminium in the cold

Energy revolution leaves US aluminium in the cold

Report summary

Wood Mackenzie estimates using forecast US wholesale power prices that the incentive aluminium price required for new greenfield smelter capacity in the US is US$2760/t, while that for new brownfield capacity is US$2655/t. With incentive prices higher than our current long term price forecasts for LME aluminium, we expect that the US will increasingly come to rely on imported aluminium metal units.

What's included?

This report includes 1 file(s)

  • Energy revolution leaves US aluminium in the cold PDF - 334.76 KB 6 Pages, 1 Tables, 4 Figures


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  • Past and mutual appreciation
  • Deregulation and revolution
  • Breaking of the fellowship
  • Little incentive
  • Outward looking

In this report there are 5 tables or charts, including:

  • Past and mutual appreciation
  • Deregulation and revolution
    • Changes to US primary aluminium smelting capacity, 1999-2014 (ktpa)
  • Breaking of the fellowship
    • Contract and base case wholesale weighted average power tariffs, 2003-2025, US$/MWh (2014$)
  • Little incentive
    • Long run US incentive price for greenfield and brownfield primary capacity, 10% IRR (2014$)
    • Modelled smelter operating margins on LME, alumina and wholesale forecast prices, 2014-2020, US$/t
  • Outward looking
    • US primary aluminium balance
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