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6 Pages

Energy revolution leaves US aluminium in the cold


Energy revolution leaves US aluminium in the cold

Report summary

Wood Mackenzie estimates using forecast US wholesale power prices that the incentive aluminium price required for new greenfield smelter capacity in the US is US$2760/t, while that for new brownfield capacity is US$2655/t. With incentive prices higher than our current long term price forecasts for LME aluminium, we expect that the US will increasingly come to rely on imported aluminium metal units.

What's included?

This report includes 1 file(s)

  • Energy revolution leaves US aluminium in the cold PDF - 334.76 KB 6 Pages, 1 Tables, 4 Figures

Description

This Metals Insight report highlights the key issues surrounding this topic, and draws out the implications for those involved.

For industry participants and advisors who want to look at the trends, risks and issues surrounding this topic, this report gives you an expert point of view to help inform your decision making.

Our analysts are based in the markets they analyse and work with high-quality proprietary data to provide consistent and reliable insight.

We provide unique in-depth analysis of the metals supply industry so you can make confident strategic decisions.

  • Past and mutual appreciation
  • Deregulation and revolution
  • Breaking of the fellowship
  • Little incentive
  • Outward looking

In this report there are 5 tables or charts, including:

  • Past and mutual appreciation
  • Deregulation and revolution
    • Changes to US primary aluminium smelting capacity, 1999-2014 (ktpa)
  • Breaking of the fellowship
    • Contract and base case wholesale weighted average power tariffs, 2003-2025, US$/MWh (2014$)
  • Little incentive
    • Long run US incentive price for greenfield and brownfield primary capacity, 10% IRR (2014$)
    • Modelled smelter operating margins on LME, alumina and wholesale forecast prices, 2014-2020, US$/t
  • Outward looking
    • US primary aluminium balance
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