Energy revolution leaves US aluminium in the cold

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Report summary

Wood Mackenzie estimates using forecast US wholesale power prices that the incentive aluminium price required for new greenfield smelter capacity in the US is US$2760/t, while that for new brownfield capacity is US$2655/t. With incentive prices higher than our current long term price forecasts for LME aluminium, we expect that the US will increasingly come to rely on imported aluminium metal units.

What's included

This report contains

  • Document

    Energy revolution leaves US aluminium in the cold

    PDF 334.76 KB

Table of contents

  • Past and mutual appreciation
  • Deregulation and revolution
  • Breaking of the fellowship
  • Little incentive
  • Outward looking

Tables and charts

This report includes 5 images and tables including:


  • US primary aluminium balance


  • Changes to US primary aluminium smelting capacity, 1999-2014 (ktpa)
  • Contract and base case wholesale weighted average power tariffs, 2003-2025, US$/MWh (2014$)
  • Long run US incentive price for greenfield and brownfield primary capacity, 10% IRR (2014$)
  • Modelled smelter operating margins on LME, alumina and wholesale forecast prices, 2014-2020, US$/t

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