Energy revolution leaves US aluminium in the cold

Loading current market price

Get this report

Loading current market price

Get this report as part of a subscription

Enquire about Subscriptions

Already have subscription? Sign In

Further information

Pay by Invoice or Credit Card FAQs

Contact us

For further information about this report submit the form below.

Report summary

Wood Mackenzie estimates using forecast US wholesale power prices that the incentive aluminium price required for new greenfield smelter capacity in the US is US$2760/t, while that for new brownfield capacity is US$2655/t. With incentive prices higher than our current long term price forecasts for LME aluminium, we expect that the US will increasingly come to rely on imported aluminium metal units.

What's included

This report contains

  • Document

    Energy revolution leaves US aluminium in the cold

    PDF 334.76 KB

Table of contents

  • Past and mutual appreciation
  • Deregulation and revolution
  • Breaking of the fellowship
  • Little incentive
  • Outward looking

Tables and charts

This report includes 5 images and tables including:


  • Changes to US primary aluminium smelting capacity, 1999-2014 (ktpa)
  • Contract and base case wholesale weighted average power tariffs, 2003-2025, US$/MWh (2014$)
  • Long run US incentive price for greenfield and brownfield primary capacity, 10% IRR (2014$)
  • Modelled smelter operating margins on LME, alumina and wholesale forecast prices, 2014-2020, US$/t


  • US primary aluminium balance

You may be interested in


Questions about this report?

  • Europe:
    +44 131 243 4699
  • Americas:
    +1 713 470 1900
  • Asia Pacific:
    +61 2 8224 8898