Commodity market report
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66 Pages

Global aluminium long-term outlook Q1 2014


Global aluminium long-term outlook Q1 2014

Report summary

About 2.6Mt/a voluntary capacity closures were announced and substantially implemented in ROW since December 2011, of which 1.7Mt/a were announced since August 2013.  Producers showed greater urgency to reduce output after the LME aluminium price moved decisively below $1800/t last July

What's included?

This report includes 11 file(s)

  • Global aluminium long-term outlook Q1 2014 PDF - 821.18 KB 66 Pages, 43 Tables, 21 Figures
  • Aluminium Tables LTO Q1 2014.pdf PDF - 1.01 MB
  • Aluminium Tables LTO Q1 2014.xls XLS - 2.50 MB
  • Smelter analysis aluminium LTO Q1 2014.xls XLS - 749.00 KB
  • Refinery analysis aluminium LTO Q1 2014.xls XLS - 518.50 KB
  • Supply main changes aluminium LTO Q1 2014.xls XLS - 311.50 KB
  • Demand main changes aluminium LTO Q1 2014.xls XLS - 201.00 KB
  • Market balance and prices aluminium LTO Q1 2014.xls XLS - 250.00 KB
  • Demand analysis aluminium LTO Q1 2014.xls XLS - 842.50 KB
  • Production rankings aluminium LTO Q1 2014.xls XLS - 467.50 KB
  • Slide pack aluminium lto q1 2014.pdf PDF - 745.17 KB

Description

As global demand weakens and commodity prices fall, we're seeing a challenging environment in the metals and mining industry. Mining companies are increasingly coming under pressure to reduce operating costs, causing many to shift their strategic planning, delay new investments and look to long-term future growth.

This Aluminium Long Term Outlook report provides a detailed breakdown of global supply and demand balances in this market, as well as price forecasts.

Mining companies, investment banks and investors can use this report to understand the future direction of the ferrous and base metals market. It will also help you assess the impact of key industry issues and events on market balances and pricing.

From acquisitions to investments, Wood Mackenzie helps you plan, forecast and benchmark in the metals markets. Our proprietary database and analyst expertise combines robust production, consumption and pricing data with detailed analysis to identify market opportunities.

We give you a holistic view of the ferrous and base metals markets so you have the confidence to make strategic decisions.

  • Executive summary
  • Demand
    • Overview
    • Forecasts by region
      • Asia
      • China
      • Asia (ex-China)
      • FRP and extrusion expansion projects in chosen Asian countries
      • The Middle East
      • Europe
      • Russia and the Caspian
      • North America
      • North America primary aluminium consumption (kt)
      • Latin America
  • Supply
    • Refinery production and capacity
      • Summary
      • Global smelter production and capacity 2012-30
      • Africa
      • North America
      • Latin America
      • Middle East
      • Asia
      • Elsewhere in Asia
      • Europe
      • Russia and the Caspian
      • Oceania
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Alumina market outlook
    • Long-term alumina prices
      • Global SGA balance, 2012-2030
    • Aluminium market review and outlook
      • Risks to the forecast
    • Long term aluminium prices
      • Average LME aluminium cash prices, 1991-2030 and incentive price ($/t)
    • Review of Historical Prices
      • Alumina
      • 2004
      • 2008
      • 2011
      • Aluminium
      • 2004

In this report there are 64 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
  • Demand
    • Global primary aluminium consumption (Mt)
    • Global primary aluminium consumption by region, 2014 and 2030
    • Demand: Image 2
    • Main changes to primary aluminium consumption forecast Q4 2013 vs Q1 2014 (kt)
    • Demand: Table 3
    • Chinese primary aluminium consumption (Mt and year-on-year % growth)
    • Chinese Total aluminium consumption and IP forecast
    • Total vehicle production forecast and aluminium demand for transportation
    • Chinese aluminium consumption and consumption per capita
    • Net trade of FRP and Extrusions in (Asia ex China)
    • Demand: Image 7
    • Asia (ex-China) flat rolled products expansions, 2014-2020
    • Middle Eastern primary aluminium consumption (kt)
    • Demand: Table 7
    • European vehicle production
    • European aluminium auto body sheet capacity
    • European construction output
    • Demand: Table 8
    • Demand: Image 11
    • Russia's flat rolled products expansions, 2014-2020
    • Demand: Table 10
    • North American vehicle production
    • US construction output
    • Demand: Table 11
  • Supply
    • Supply: Table 1
    • Supply: Table 2
    • Supply: Table 3
    • Supply: Table 4
    • Supply: Table 5
    • Supply: Table 6
    • Supply: Table 7
    • Supply: Table 8
    • Supply: Table 9
    • Supply: Table 10
    • Supply: Table 11
    • Supply: Table 12
    • Contributions to 25Mt/a aluminium supply growth, 2013-2017
    • Supply: Table 13
    • Global aluminium production 2013-2017, 2020, 2025 and 2030 (kt)
    • Africa aluminium production 2013-2017, 2020, 2025 and 2030 (kt)
    • North America aluminium production 2013-2017, 2020, 2025 and 2030 (kt)
    • Latin America aluminium production 2013-2017, 2020, 2025 and 2030 (kt)
    • Supply: Table 18
    • Chinese capacity closures in 2013 (kt/a)
    • Supply: Table 20
    • Asia aluminium production 2013-2017, 2020, 2025 and 2030 (kt)
    • Supply: Table 22
    • Supply: Table 23
    • Oceania aluminium production 2013-2017, 2020, 2025 and 2030 (kt)
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Smelter cuts increased by about 500kt/a since the December report
    • Spot alumina prices May 2008-March 2014, (fob $/t)
    • Supply-demand balances: Table 2
    • Average one-year contract alumina prices, 1990-2030
    • Historical and equilibrium aluminium prices (2012 US$/t aluminium)
    • Historical and equilibrium alumina prices (2012 US$/t alumina)
    • Supply-demand balances: Table 4
    • Short-term contract alumina prices, 1980-2030, ($/t)
    • Global supply and demand balance, LME cash price and stocks in days of consumption
    • Supply-demand balances: Table 5
    • Metal prices, cash costs and aluminium stocks
    • Supply-demand balances: Table 6
    • Primary aluminium cash prices, 1970-2030, ($/t)
    • Global SGA market balances and prices (Mt)
    • Supply-demand balances: Table 8
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