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Global aluminium long-term outlook Q1 2015

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Report summary

Moderation in demand growth coupled with ramp up of new capacity in China India Malaysia and the Middle East will see an acceleration in smelter production growth to 7.3% versus demand growth of 5.1% in 2015. As a result we expect the global balance to register a surplus of just under 1Mt. Further gains in output coupled with more modest expansion in primary demand will result in the market surplus rising to 2.2Mt and 1.7Mt over the next two years.

What's included

This report contains

  • Document

    Aluminium Tables Q1 2015.pdf

    PDF 1.08 MB

  • Document

    Slide pack aluminium LTO Q1 2015.pdf

    PDF 1.21 MB

  • Document

    Demand main changes aluminium LTO Q1 2015.xls

    XLS 215.00 KB

  • Document

    Demand analysis aluminium LTO Q1 2015.xls

    XLS 858.50 KB

  • Document

    Supply main changes aluminium LTO Q1 2015.xls

    XLS 371.00 KB

  • Document

    Production rankings aluminium LTO Q1 2015.xls

    XLS 474.50 KB

  • Document

    Smelter analysis aluminium LTO Q1 2015.xls

    XLS 796.50 KB

  • Document

    Refinery analysis aluminium LTO Q1 2015.xls

    XLS 566.00 KB

  • Document

    Market balance and prices aluminium LTO Q1 2015.xls

    XLS 274.00 KB

  • Document

    Global aluminium long-term outlook Q1 2015

    PDF 856.80 KB

  • Document

    Global aluminium long-term outlook Q1 2015

    ZIP 3.87 MB

  • Document

    Executive summary

    PDF 87.87 KB

  • Document

    Demand

    PDF 233.25 KB

  • Document

    Supply

    PDF 315.97 KB

  • Document

    Supply-demand balances

    PDF 326.43 KB

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
  • Demand
  • Supply
  • Supply-demand balances

Tables and charts

This report includes 61 images and tables including:

Images

  • Affordable alumina cost relative to the "all-in" aluminium prices
  • Chinese bauxite imports expected to be adequate in 2015-2017
  • Spot alumina prices Jun 2008-Mar 2015, (fob $/t)
  • Short-term contract alumina prices, 1980-2035, ($/t)
  • Global supply and demand balance, LME cash price and stocks in days of consumption
  • Less smelter capacity growth expected from China in the long term
  • Metal prices, cash costs and aluminium stocks
  • Primary aluminium cash prices, 1980-2035, ($/t)
  • Actual and required refinery capacity utilisation, 2005-2025
  • Global alumina capacity and demand, 2005-2035
  • Contributions to 22Mt/a alumina supply growth before adjustments, 2014-2018
  • China bauxite imports, Jan 2010-Jan 2015, (Mt)
  • Global and ROW smelter capacity utilisation, 2007-2025
  • Contributions to 11Mt/a aluminium supply growth, 2014-2018
  • China residential completions, 1990-2035
  • Japanese semis shipments
  • European production and capacity of automotive sheet
  • Russian exports of downstream products, 2008-2014
  • North American car production, 1995-2035
  • North America automotive sheet and production, 2012-2020
  • North American semis production, 2013-2035
  • North American demand by end-use sectors, 2013-2035

Tables

  • Global primary aluminium consumption (Mt)
  • Main changes to primary aluminium consumption forecast Q4 2014 vs Q1 2015 (kt)
  • Revisions to Q4 2014 forecast, (kt)
  • Global alumina production 2014-2018, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
  • Revisions to Q4 2014 forecasts (kt)
  • Global aluminium production 2014-2018, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
  • Rest of World alumina balances, China imports and Spot prices, 2014-2017, (kt)
  • Average one-year contract alumina prices, 1991-2035
  • Supply-demand balances: Table 3
  • Global SGA balance, 2014-2018, 2020, 2025 and 2035
  • Global aluminium balance, 2014-2035
  • Average LME aluminium cash prices, 1991-2035 and incentive price ($/t)
  • Africa alumina production 2014-2018, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
  • North America alumina production 2014-2018, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
  • Latin America alumina production 2014-2018, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
  • Middle East alumina production 2014-2018, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
  • Chinese alumina production increases, 2014-2018 (kt/a)
  • Asia alumina production 2014-2018, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
  • Europe alumina production 2014-2018, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
  • Russia and the Caspian alumina production 2014-2018, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
  • Oceania alumina production 2014-2018, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
  • Projected Non-China aluminium production increases, 2014-2018, (kt)
  • Africa aluminium production 2014-2018, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
  • North America aluminium production 2014-2018, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
  • Latin America aluminium production 2014-2018, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
  • Middle East aluminium production 2014-2018, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
  • Chinese aluminium production increases, 2014-2018 (kt/a)
  • Asia aluminium production 2014-2018, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
  • Europe aluminium production 2014-2018, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
  • Russia and the Caspian aluminium production 2014-2018, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
  • Oceania aluminium production 2014-2018, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
  • Global SGA market balances and prices (Mt)
  • Global primary aluminium market balances and prices (Mt)
  • Asia primary aluminium consumption kt
  • Chinese primary aluminium consumption (Mt and year-on-year % growth)
  • Middle Eastern primary aluminium consumption (kt)
  • European primary aluminium consumption (kt)
  • Russian primary aluminium consumption (kt)
  • North America primary aluminium consumption (kt)

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