Wood Mackenzie's medium term outlook for the primary aluminium market has deteriorated somewhat since our Q4 Long Term Outlook. We have downgraded our economic outlook across multiple years which has driven down our demand growth forecasts in all key regions. At the same time, our new bottom-up China demand model indicates only a modest expansion in demand. Consequently, we have revised down our long term trend demand growth by 0.7% from the previous report. In contrast, metal output growth continues to struggle to keep pace with the slowdown in underlying demand. In China, any periodic strength SHFE prices seems to quickly break the resolve of producers to keep production off-line. This off-on process in China will only be resolved when the Chinese authorities finally take meaningful steps to permanently close capacity and address the build in inventory. We believe that this is some years away, with the first priority being excess steel and coal capacity.
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Global aluminium long-term outlook Q1 2016 PDF - 952.20 KB 81 Pages, 43 Tables, 26 Figures
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As global demand weakens and commodity prices fall, we're seeing a challenging environment in the metals and mining industry. Mining companies are increasingly coming under pressure to reduce operating costs, causing many to shift their strategic planning, delay new investments and look to long-term future growth.
This Aluminium Long Term Outlook report provides a detailed breakdown of global supply and demand balances in this market, as well as price forecasts.
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Commodity market report | Mar 2016
Global aluminium long-term outlook Q1 2016
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