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Global aluminium long-term outlook Q1 2016

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Report summary

Wood Mackenzie's medium term outlook for the primary aluminium market has deteriorated somewhat since our Q4 Long Term Outlook. We have downgraded our economic outlook across multiple years which has driven down our demand growth forecasts in all key regions. At the same time our new bottom up China demand model indicates only a modest expansion in demand. Consequently we have revised down our long term trend demand growth by 0.7% from the previous report. In contrast metal output growth continues to struggle to keep pace with the slowdown in underlying demand. In China any periodic strength SHFE prices seems to quickly break the resolve of producers to keep production off line. This off on process in China will only be resolved when the Chinese authorities finally take meaningful steps to permanently close capacity and address the build in inventory. We believe that this is some years away with the first priority being excess steel and coal capacity.

What's included

This report contains

  • Document

    Slide pack aluminium LTO Q1 2016.pdf

    PDF 854.36 KB

  • Document

    Aluminium Tables Q1 2016.pdf

    PDF 1.10 MB

  • Document

    Demand main changes aluminium LTO Q1 2016.xls

    XLS 251.50 KB

  • Document

    Demand analysis aluminium LTO Q1 2016.xls

    XLS 881.50 KB

  • Document

    Supply main changes aluminium LTO Q1 2016.xls

    XLS 373.50 KB

  • Document

    Production rankings aluminium LTO Q1 2016.xls

    XLS 475.00 KB

  • Document

    Smelter analysis aluminium LTO Q1 2016.xls

    XLS 771.00 KB

  • Document

    Refinery analysis aluminium LTO Q1 2016.xls

    XLS 548.50 KB

  • Document

    Market balance and prices aluminium LTO Q1 2016.xls

    XLS 256.00 KB

  • Document

    Global aluminium long-term outlook Q1 2016

    PDF 952.20 KB

  • Document

    Global aluminium long-term outlook Q1 2016

    ZIP 3.68 MB

  • Document

    Executive summary

    PDF 88.80 KB

  • Document

    Demand

    PDF 262.28 KB

  • Document

    Supply

    PDF 356.15 KB

  • Document

    Supply-demand balances

    PDF 355.62 KB

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
  • Demand
  • Supply
  • Supply-demand balances

Tables and charts

This report includes 69 images and tables including:

Images

  • Primary aluminium demand by region, 2010 - 2035
  • Demand: Image 2
  • Demand: Image 3
  • Spot alumina prices, (fob $/t)
  • Malaysia’s bauxite shipment to China was healthy in first month of ban
  • Supply-demand balances: Image 3
  • Global supply - demand balance, LME cash price and stocks in days of consumption
  • Supply-demand balances: Image 5
  • China, India and Indonesia will help to drive new capacity growth
  • Metal prices, cash costs and aluminium stocks
  • Primary aluminium cash prices, 1980-2035, ($/t)
  • European construction output
  • European car production
  • North American imports of aluminium sheet
  • US construction output
  • Actual and required refinery capacity utilisation, 2007-2025
  • Global alumina capacity and demand, 2005-2035
  • Contributions to 18Mt/a alumina supply growth before adjustments, 2015-2019
  • China bauxite imports, (Mt)
  • Global and ROW smelter capacity utilisation, 2007-2025
  • Supply: Image 6
  • China end-use demand split
  • Construction completions by category
  • Can stock demand reach 550kt by 2025
  • Share of electric vehicles to increase over forecast period
  • Aluminium consumption and consumption per capita 2013 - 2015, (Mt and kg/capita)

Tables

  • Global primary aluminium consumption (Mt)
  • Supply-demand balances: Table 1
  • Average one-year contract alumina prices, 1991-2035
  • Supply-demand balances: Table 3
  • Global SGA balance, 2010-2019, 2020, 2025 and 2035
  • Global aluminium balance, 2010-2035
  • Supply-demand balances: Table 6
  • Main changes to primary aluminium consumption forecast Q4 2015 vs Q1 2016 (kt)
  • Asia primary aluminium consumption kt
  • Middle Eastern primary aluminium consumption (Mt and year-on year % growth)
  • European primary aluminium consumption (Mt and year-on year % growth)
  • North American primary aluminium consumption (Mt and year-on year % growth)
  • Currently curtailed refineries
  • Revisions to Q4 2015 forecast, (kt)
  • Global alumina production 2015-2019, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
  • Africa alumina production 2015-2019, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
  • Supply: Table 5
  • Latin America alumina production 2015-2019, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
  • Middle East alumina production 2015-2019, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
  • Chinese alumina production increases, 2015-2019 (kt/a)
  • Some additional bauxite projects with China import potential
  • Asia alumina production 2015-2019, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
  • Europe alumina production 2015-2019, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
  • Russia and the Caspian alumina production 2015-2019, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
  • Oceania alumina production 2015-2018, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
  • Projected Non-China aluminium production increases, 2015-2019, (kt)
  • Revisions to Q4 2015 forecasts (kt)
  • Global aluminium production 2015-2018, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
  • Africa aluminium production 2015-2019, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
  • North America aluminium production 2015-2019, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
  • Latin America aluminium production 2015-2019, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
  • Middle East aluminium production 2015-2019, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
  • Supply: Table 21
  • China’s planned smelter completion schedule, (kt/a)
  • Main contributors to Chinese aluminium production increases, 2015-2019 (kt/a)
  • Asia aluminium production 2015-2019, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
  • Europe aluminium production 2015-2019, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
  • Russia and the Caspian aluminium production 2015-2019, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
  • Oceania aluminium production 2015-2018, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
  • Global SGA market balances and prices (Mt)
  • Demand: Table 4
  • Demand: Table 5
  • Supply-demand balances: Table 8

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