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Global aluminium long-term outlook Q1 2017

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27 March 2017

Global aluminium long-term outlook Q1 2017

Report summary

The aluminium metal market service long term outlook (LTO) is published quarterly and provides a detailed forecast of aluminium supply and demand fundamentals out to 2035. Our current iteration of market fundamentals out to 2035 continues to show a global market in surplus out to 2020. However, we now project the surplus to peak at below 1 Mt in 2018, before moving to a neutral to deficit balance out to 2022. Our analysis assumes Chinese production adjustments kick in during 2018 and 2019 to move the market back towards balance. The risk is that these adjustments do not fully take place and that China continues to grow output at a fast pace. Under this scenario we believe that the requirement to adjust output lower would be kicked further down the road.

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
    • Overview
      • Changes to consumption forecasts since Q4 2016
    • Forecasts by region
      • Asia
      • China
      • Asia (ex-China)
        • India
        • Thailand
        • Japan
      • Europe
      • North America
    • Smelter production and capacity
      • Summary
        • Global and ROW smelter capacity utilisation, 2007-2025
      • Smelter production changes since Q4 2016 and forecasts
      • Global smelter production and capacity 2016-2035
      • Africa
      • North America
        • North America aluminium production 2016-2021, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
      • Latin America
      • Middle East
      • Asia
        • China’s increasingly competitive portfolio of smelter assets
        • Elsewhere in Asia
      • Europe
      • Russia and the Caspian
      • Summary
        • Currently curtailed refineries that are at risk
        • Actual and required refinery capacity utilisation, 2005-2030
        • Global alumina capacity and demand, 2005-2035
      • Refinery production changes since Q4 2016 and forecasts
      • Global refinery production and capacity 2016-2035
      • Africa
        • Contributions to 30 Mtpa alumina supply growth before adjustments, 2016-2021
      • North America
      • Latin America
        • Latin America alumina production
        • 2016-2021, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
      • Middle East
        • Middle East alumina production
        • 2016-2021, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
      • Asia
        • Chinese alumina production increases, 2016-2021 (kt/a)
      • Europe
      • Russia and the Caspian
      • Oceania
    • Bauxite Production
      • Total bauxite supply and demand, Mt
      • Africa bauxite production 2016-2021, 2025,2035
      • Latin America and Caribbean bauxite production 2016-2021,2025,2035
    • Aluminium market review and outlook
    • Long-term alumina prices
      • Short-term contract alumina prices, 1980-2035, (US$/t)

Tables and charts

This report includes 89 images and tables including:

  • Global primary aluminium consumption (Mt)
  • Primary aluminium demand by region, 2010 - 2035
  • Contribution to global primary demand growth by region, 2016 and 2035
  • Demand: Image 3
  • Demand: Image 4
  • Supply-demand balances: Table 1
  • Supply-demand balances: Table 2
  • Atlantic Seaborne supply & demand (before adj), 2010-2035, Mt
  • Indo-Pacific Seaborne supply & demand (before adj), 2010-2035, Mt
  • Supply-demand balances: Table 3
  • Metal prices, cash costs and aluminium stocks
  • Primary aluminium cash prices, 1970-2035 ($/t)
  • Supply-demand balances: Table 4
  • Average one-year contract alumina prices, 1991-2035
  • Historical and equilibrium alumina prices (2017 US$/t)
  • Historical and equilibrium aluminium prices (2017 US$/t)
  • Global SGA balance, 2014-2021, 2025, 2030 and 2035
  • Main changes to primary aluminium consumption forecast Q4 2016 vs Q1 2017 (kt)
  • Asia primary aluminium consumption kt
  • Chinese primary aluminium consumption (Mt and year-on-year % growth)
  • Demand: Image 5
  • Demand: Image 6
  • Distribution of Chinese primary demand growth by end-use sector, 2016 and 2035
  • China set to dominate regional vehicle output
  • China vehicle output by type
  • Total building completions set to moderate longer term
  • Total aluminium consumption and per capita consumption (Mt and kg/capita)
  • Demand: Table 5
  • European primary aluminium consumption (Mt and year-on year % growth)
  • European imports of downstream products
  • European automotive sheet capacity
  • European passenger car production
  • Trends in the European construction sector
  • North American primary aluminium consumption (Mt and year-on year % growth)
  • North American production of aluminium semis
  • North American demand by sector
  • Smelter capacity in 2+26 cities
  • ‘Potential’ heating season production impact
  • Projected Non-China aluminium production increases, 2017-2021, (kt)
  • Revisions to Q4 2016 forecasts (kt)
  • Global aluminium production 2016-2021, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
  • Africa aluminium production 2016-2021, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
  • Europe aluminium production 2016-2021, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
  • Russia and the Caspian aluminium production 2016-2021, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
  • Oceania aluminium production 2016-2021, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
  • Revisions to Q4 2016 forecast, (kt)
  • Global alumina production 2016-2021, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
  • Africa alumina production 2016-2021, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
  • North America alumina production 2016-2021, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
  • Asia alumina production 2016-2021, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
  • Europe alumina production 2016-2021, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
  • Russia and the Caspian alumina production 2016-2021, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
  • Oceania alumina production 2016-2021, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
  • Supply: Image 16
  • Global metallurgical bauxite requirement 2016-2021, 2025, 2035 (Mt)
  • Base case global bauxite supply 2016-2021, 2025, 2035 (Mt)
  • Regional bauxite supply/demand and balance (RHS), 2017, million tonnes
  • Supply: Table 27
  • Supply: Table 28
  • Middle East bauxite production 2016-2021, 2025, 2035
  • Official Chinese bauxite reserves and resources for major provinces, end 2016, Mt
  • Chinese bauxite production by province, 1985-2030 (Mt)
  • Asia bauxite production 2016-2021, 2025, 2035
  • Europe bauxite production 2016-2021, 2025, 2035
  • Russian and Caspian bauxite production 2016-2021, 2025, 2035
  • Oceania bauxite production 2016-2021, 2025, 2035
  • Supply-demand balances: Image 7
  • Supply: Image 3
  • Supply: Image 4
  • Supply: Table 5
  • Latin America aluminium production 2016-2021, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
  • Middle East aluminium production 2016-2021, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
  • Supply: Image 5
  • Asset level assessment – Shandong hardest hit - 90% of base capacity falls under the new regulations
  • Supply: Image 7
  • Smelter capacity in 2+26 cities
  • ‘Potential’ heating season production impact
  • Refinery capacity in 2+26 cities
  • Supply: Image 11
  • Supply: Image 12
  • Main contributors to Chinese aluminium production increases, 2016-2021 (ktpa)
  • Asia aluminium production 2016-2021, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
  • Supply: Table 13
  • Supply: Image 13
  • Supply: Image 14
  • Supply: Image 15
  • Supply: Table 18
  • Supply: Table 19
  • Supply: Table 21

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Slide pack aluminium LTO Q1 2017.pdf

    PDF 1.02 MB

  • Document

    Aluminium Tables Q1 2017.pdf

    PDF 1.22 MB

  • Document

    Demand main changes aluminium LTO Q1 2017.xls

    XLS 287.50 KB

  • Document

    Demand analysis aluminium LTO Q1 2017.xls

    XLS 888.50 KB

  • Document

    Supply main changes aluminium LTO Q1 2017.xls

    XLS 580.50 KB

  • Document

    Production rankings aluminium LTO Q1 2017.xls

    XLS 474.50 KB

  • Document

    Smelter analysis aluminium LTO Q1 2017.xls

    XLS 933.50 KB

  • Document

    Refinery analysis aluminium LTO Q1 2017.xls

    XLS 695.50 KB

  • Document

    Mine analysis aluminium LTO Q1 2017.xls

    XLS 457.00 KB

  • Document

    Market balance and prices aluminium LTO Q1 2017.xls

    XLS 273.50 KB

  • Document

    Global aluminium long-term outlook Q1 2017

    PDF 1.19 MB

  • Document

    Global aluminium long-term outlook Q1 2017

    ZIP 4.44 MB

  • Document

    Executive summary

    PDF 88.39 KB

  • Document

    Demand

    PDF 287.12 KB

  • Document

    Supply

    PDF 666.42 KB

  • Document

    Supply-demand balances

    PDF 295.93 KB