Global aluminium long-term outlook Q1 2018 Report

Commodity Market Report 26 March 2018

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Report summary

The aluminium metal market service long term outlook (LTO) is published quarterly and provides a detailed forecast of aluminium supply and demand fundamentals out to 2035. We project a tight global balance out to 2022 on firm demand expansion and China capacity restraint. Our assessment of global fundamentals continues to point to a tight market in terms of days of consumption. A reduced pace of output in China on the back of pollution controls and restrictions on capacity build will cap output growth. Outside China, we see output additions in the US, Middle East and India. Beyond 2022 China’s supply side reforms will place a limit on capacity additions and shift the focus of future additions to capacity to the world ex-China.

Executive summary
Demand
- Overview
  - Changes to consumption forecasts since Q4 2017
- Forecasts by region
  - Asia
  - China
  - Asia (ex-China)
    - Europe
  - North America
Supply
- Smelter production and capacity
  - Summary
    - Global and ROW smelter capacity utilisation, 2007-2025
    - Contributions to 13 Mtpa aluminium supply growth, 2017-2021
  - Smelter production changes since Q4 2017 and forecasts
  - Global smelter production and capacity 2016-2035
  - Africa
  - North America
    - North America aluminium production 2016-2021, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
  - Latin America
    - Latin America aluminium production 2016-2021, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
  - Middle East
    - Middle East aluminium production 2016-2021, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
  - Asia
Supply-demand balances
- Aluminium market review and outlook
- Long-term alumina prices
  - Short-term contract alumina prices, 1980-2035, (US$/t)

Tables and charts

This report includes 70 images and tables including:

Global primary aluminium consumption (Mt)
Primary aluminium demand by region, 2010 - 2035
Supply-demand balances: Table 1

Supply-demand balances: Table 2
Supply-demand balances: Table 3
Metal prices, cash costs and aluminium stocks
Primary aluminium cash prices, 1970-2035 ($/t)
Supply-demand balances: Table 4
Average one-year contract alumina prices, 1991-2035
Supply-demand balances: Table 6
Global SGA balance, 2014-2021, 2025, 2030 and 2035
Main changes to primary aluminium consumption forecast Q4 2017 vs Q1 2018 (kt)
Asia primary aluminium consumption kt
Chinese primary aluminium consumption (Mt and year-on-year % growth)
China total demand split by end-use sector
Demand: Image 3
Distribution of Chinese flat rolled capacity by scale
Breakdown of vehicle engine type (passenger and commercial)
Urban building completions, million square meters
Non-residential building completions, million square meters
Actual versus budgeted grid investment, Bn RMB
Total aluminium consumption and per capita consumption (Mt and kg per capita)
Demand: Table 5
North American primary aluminium consumption (Mt and year-on year % growth)
US aluminium demand per product
US demand and supply for automotive sheet
Main contributors to Chinese aluminium production increases, 2017-2022 (ktpa)
Projected Non-China aluminium production increases, 2016-2021, (kt)
Revisions to Q4 2017 forecasts (kt)
Global aluminium production 2016-2021, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
Africa aluminium production 2016-2021, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
Supply: Table 9
Supply: Table 10
Supply: Table 11
Supply: Table 12
Supply: Table 13
Supply: Table 14
Supply: Table 15
Supply: Table 16
Supply: Table 17
Supply: Table 18
Supply: Table 19
Supply: Table 20
Supply: Table 21
Supply: Table 22
Supply: Table 23
Supply: Table 24
Supply: Table 25
Provincial Chinese alumina refineries’ weighted average cash cost position 2017
Provincial Chinese alumina refineries’ weighted average cash cost position Q4 2017
Supply: Table 26
Supply: Table 27
Supply: Table 28
Supply: Table 29
Supply: Table 30
Supply: Table 31
Supply: Table 32
Supply: Table 33
Supply: Table 34
Supply: Table 35
Supply-demand balances: Image 3
European primary aluminium consumption (Mt and year-on year % growth)
European consumption and production of automotive sheet
US imports from Europe
US exports to Europe
Supply: Image 1
Supply: Image 2
Supply: Table 6
Supply: Table 7
Supply: Table 8