Global Aluminium Report Q1 2019

Commodity Market Report 20 March 2019

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Why buy this aluminium report?

Get forecasts on the aluminium future price and analysis of the factors that will influence price to 2040
Get supply, aluminium demand and global aluminium market analysis from our team of experts. We unpack issues including the impact of China’s environmental compliance programme on refinery margins, the effect of the economic slowdown on the global aluminium market and expected drivers of future global aluminium demand
Understand how macro-economic factors such as the US-China trade war have impacted the aluminium market sentiment

The report comes with data sets and charts, including this one, which forecasts market balances to 2040.

Report summary

The aluminium report is published quarterly and provides forecasts on aluminium future prices as well as a detailed forecast of supply and global aluminium demand fundamentals out to 2040. Our latest iteration of global primary market fundamentals points to a tight market out to 2022. Near-term, the US-China trade war, a weaker economic growth landscape in Europe and China and the continued strong flow of semis exports from China have conspired to dampen the global aluminium market sentiment. However, over the medium-term, the rest of the world will need to fill an ever wider supply gap left by lower Chinese semis exports.

Changes to consumption forecasts since Q4 2018
Forecasts by region
- Asia
- China
- Asia ex-China
Europe
- North America
- United States
South America
- Brazil
- Project Classification
Smelter production and capacity
- Summary
- Global smelter production and capacity 2017-2040
- Africa
- North America
- Latin America
- Middle East
- Asia
- Europe
- Russia and Caspian
- Oceania
Refinery production and capacity
- Summary
- Global refinery production and capacity 2017-2040
- Africa
- North America
- Latin America
- Middle East
- Asia
- India
- Indonesia
- Europe
- Russia and Caspian
- Oceania
Bauxite production
- Regional focus
- Africa
- Latin America
- North America
- Middle East
- Asia
- Other Asia
- Europe
- Russia and the Caspian
- Oceania
Aluminium market outlook
Alumina market outlook
Seaborne bauxite market outlook
- Main risks around our base case aluminium market outlook
Long term aluminium prices
Long-term alumina prices

Tables and charts

This report includes 79 images and tables including:

Main changes to primary aluminium consumption forecast Q4 2018 vs Q1 2019 (kt)
Europe primary aluminium consumption 2017-2022, 2025, 2035 and 2040 (kt)
European car production by engine type

European consumption of primary aluminium
Total bauxite supply and demand, Mt
Global metallurgical bauxite requirement 2017-2022, 2025, 2035, 2040 (Mt)
Base case global bauxite supply 2017-2022, 2025, 2035, 2040 (Mt)
Global supply-demand balance, LME cash prices and stocks in days of consumption
Crunch time coming for new rest of the world supply
Global aluminium balance, 2017-2022, 2025, 2035, 2040
World ex-China alumina capacity and demand (Mt)
Rest of the world alumina balances, China imports and spot prices, 2018-2021
Atlantic Seaborne supply & demand, 2010-2035, Mt
Indo-Pacific Seaborne supply & demand, 2010-2035, Mt
Global seaborne bauxite balance and prices, 2017-2022, 2025, 2035, 2040
Metal prices, cash costs and aluminium stocks
Aluminium: the required aluminium incentive price is lower than the historical average at US$2250/t
Aluminium incentive price, long run operating cost and capital intensity, US$/t
Average LME aluminium cash prices, 1991-2040 and incentive price (US$/t)
Primary aluminium cash prices, 1970-2040 (US$/t)
Alumina: incentive price revised to US$380/t on transformation of geography and environmental landscape
Alumina incentive price, long run operating cost and capital intensity, US$/t
Global alumina balances and prices, 2017-2022, 2025, 2035, 2040
Average one-year contract alumina prices, 1991-2040
Alumina prices, 1970-2040 (US$/t)
Asia primary aluminium consumption kt
Chinese primary aluminium consumption (Mt and year-on-year % growth)
Secondary aluminium usage set to take-off from 2030
China total aluminium demand split end-use sector
China total aluminium demand split end-use sector
Changing policy environment for China's OBOR initiative
Rebound in completions to support near-term demand
Non residential sector activity set to remain supportive for aluminium demand
Asia primary aluminium consumption 2017-2022, 2025, 2035 and 2040 (kt)
North America primary aluminium consumption 2017-2022, 2025, 2035 and 2040 (kt)
US consumption per end-use sector
US consumption and production of automotive body sheet
Latin America primary aluminium consumption 2017-2022, 2025, 2035 and 2040 (kt)
Brazilian imports of semis from China
Brazilian car production
Global and World ex-China smelter capacity utilisation
Yunnan smelter projects
Global aluminium production 2017-2022, 2025, 2035 and 2040 (kt)
Africa aluminium production 2017-2022, 2025, 2035 and 2040 (kt)
North America aluminium production 2017-2022, 2025, 2035 and 2040 (kt)
Latin America aluminium production 2017-2022, 2025, 2035 and 2040 (kt)
Middle East aluminium production 2017-2022, 2025, 2035 and 2040 (kt)
China's smelter capacity change in 2018
Asia aluminium production 2017-2022, 2025, 2035 and 2040 (kt)
Europe aluminium production 2017-2022, 2025, 2035 and 2040 (kt)
Russia and the Caspian aluminium production 2017-2022, 2025, 2035 and 2040 (kt)
Oceania aluminium production 2017-2022, 2025, 2035 and 2040 (kt)
Refinery capacity utilisation at 95%
Refinery capacity utilisation
Global alumina production 2017-2022, 2025, 2035 and 2040 (kt)
Africa alumina production 2017-2022, 2025, 2035 and 2040 (kt)
North America alumina production 2017-2022, 2025, 2035 and 2040 (kt)
Latin America alumina production 2017-2022, 2025, 2035 and 2040 (kt)
Middle East alumina production 2017-2022, 2025, 2035 and 2040 (kt)
Asia alumina production2017-2022, 2025 and 2040 (kt)
New alumina capacity commissioned in 2013-2018 by province
New alumina capacity to be commissioned in 2019-2022 by province
Utkal expansion details
Europe alumina production 2017-2022, 2025, 2035 and 2040 (kt)
Russia and Caspian alumina production 2017-2022, 2025, 2035 and 2040 (kt)
Oceania alumina production 2017-2022, 2025, 2035 and 2040 (kt)
Guinean bauxite supply profile, 2015-2030, Mt
Africa bauxite production and demand, 2017-2022,2025,2035 and 2040 (Mt)
Bauxite tailings dam ownership in Brazil
Bauxite tailings dam type in Brazil
Latin America and Caribbean bauxite production and demand, 2017-2022,2025,2035 and 2040 (Mt)
North America bauxite production and demand, 2017-2022,2025,2035 and 2040 (Mt)
Middle East bauxite production and demand, 2017-2022,2025,2035 and 2040 (Mt)
Chinese bauxite and caustic costs per tonne of alumina
China Bauxite stocks (LHS) and weeks' equivalent (RHS) (2019 annualised basis)
Asia bauxite production and demand, 2017-2022,2025,2035 and 2040 (Mt)
Europe bauxite production and demand, 2017-2022,2025,2035 and 2040 (Mt)
Russia and Caspian bauxite production and demand, 2017-2022,2025,2035 and 2040 (Mt)
Oceania bauxite production and demand, 2017-2022,2025,2035 and 2040 (Mt)