Commodity market report
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76 Pages

Global aluminium long-term outlook Q2 2015


Global aluminium long-term outlook Q2 2015

Report summary

Wood Mackenzie has downgraded its medium term aluminium price outlook. LME prices have continued to trend lower during Q2 with the cash price for Q2 on target to average below $1,800/t. For 2015 the LME price is forecast to be $1,793/t, the lowest since 2009 with a moderate bounce back in 2016 to $1,887/t followed by a more meaningful gain in 2017 to $2,115/t. Prices are projected to find further support in terms of declining days of stocks from 2019 onwards.

What's included?

This report includes 10 file(s)

  • Global aluminium long-term outlook Q2 2015 PDF - 1.02 MB 76 Pages, 40 Tables, 24 Figures
  • Aluminium Tables Q2 2015.pdf PDF - 1.05 MB
  • Demand main changes aluminium LTO Q2 2015.xls XLS - 211.00 KB
  • Demand analysis aluminium LTO Q2 2015.xls XLS - 878.00 KB
  • Supply main changes aluminium LTO Q2 2015.xls XLS - 364.00 KB
  • Production rankings aluminium LTO Q2 2015.xls XLS - 474.50 KB
  • Smelter analysis aluminium LTO Q2 2015.xls XLS - 774.00 KB
  • Refinery analysis aluminium LTO Q2 2015.xls XLS - 574.50 KB
  • Market balance and prices aluminium LTO Q2 2015.xls XLS - 264.50 KB
  • Slide pack aluminium LTO Q2 2015.pdf PDF - 997.20 KB

Description

As global demand weakens and commodity prices fall, we're seeing a challenging environment in the metals and mining industry. Mining companies are increasingly coming under pressure to reduce operating costs, causing many to shift their strategic planning, delay new investments and look to long-term future growth.

This Aluminium Long Term Outlook report provides a detailed breakdown of global supply and demand balances in this market, as well as price forecasts.

Mining companies, investment banks and investors can use this report to understand the future direction of the ferrous and base metals market. It will also help you assess the impact of key industry issues and events on market balances and pricing.

From acquisitions to investments, Wood Mackenzie helps you plan, forecast and benchmark in the metals markets. Our proprietary database and analyst expertise combines robust production, consumption and pricing data with detailed analysis to identify market opportunities.

We give you a holistic view of the ferrous and base metals markets so you have the confidence to make strategic decisions.

  • Executive summary
  • Demand
    • Overview
    • Changes to consumption forecasts since Q1 2015
    • Forecasts by region
      • Asia
      • China
      • Asia (ex-China)
      • India
      • Japan
      • South Korea
      • Indonesia
      • The Middle East
      • Europe
      • Americas
      • North America
      • Brazil
  • Supply
    • Refinery production and capacity
      • Summary
      • Refinery production changes since Q1 2015 and forecasts
      • Global refinery production and capacity 2014-2035
        • Africa
        • North America
        • Latin America
        • Middle East
        • Asia
        • Elsewhere in Asia
        • Europe
        • Russia and the Caspian
        • Oceania
      • Smelter production and capacity
        • Summary
      • Smelter production changes since Q1 2015 and forecasts
      • Global smelter production and capacity 2014-2035
        • Africa
        • Latin America
        • Middle East
        • Asia
        • Elsewhere in Asia
        • Europe
        • Russia and the Caspian
        • Oceania
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Alumina market outlook
    • Long-term alumina prices
    • Aluminium market review and outlook
    • Long term aluminium prices
    • Review of Historical Prices
      • Alumina
      • 2004
      • 2005
      • 2006
      • 2007
      • 2008
      • Aluminium
      • 2005

In this report there are 64 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
  • Demand
    • Global primary aluminium consumption (Mt)
    • Main changes to primary aluminium consumption forecast Q1 2015 vs Q2 2015 (kt)
    • Asia primary aluminium consumption kt
    • Chinese primary aluminium consumption (Mt and year-on-year % growth)
    • China residential and non-residential construction split (M sq m)
    • Chinese aluminium can making capacity by company
    • Chinese can making plant capacity distribution
    • Investment breakdown between state and southern grid
    • Metro rail projects
    • Middle Eastern primary aluminium consumption (kt)
    • European primary aluminium consumption (kt)
    • European car production
    • European construction
    • Americas primary aluminium consumption (kt)
    • Automotive sheet supply demand balance
    • Chinese exports of semis to US
    • Brazil downstream aluminium demand by sector
  • Supply
    • China bauxite imports, Feb 2011-Apr 2015, (Mt)
    • Actual and refinery capacity utilisation, 2007-2025
    • Global alumina capacity and demand, 2005-2035
    • Revisions to Q1 2015 forecast, (kt)
    • Global alumina production 2014-2018, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
    • Africa alumina production 2014-2018, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
    • Contributions to 24Mt/a alumina supply growth before adjustments, 2014-2018
    • North America alumina production 2014-2018, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
    • Latin America alumina production 2014-2018, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
    • Middle East alumina production 2014-2018, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
    • Chinese alumina production increases, 2014-2018 (kt/a)
    • China bauxite imports, Feb 2011-Apr 2015, (Mt)
    • Supply: Table 8
    • Asia alumina production 2014-2018, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
    • Europe alumina production 2014-2018, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
    • Russia and the Caspian alumina production 2014-2018, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
    • Oceania alumina production 2014-2018, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
    • Projected Non-China aluminium production increases, 2014-2018, (kt)
    • Global and ROW smelter capacity utilisation, 2007-2025
    • Contributions to 12Mt/a aluminium supply growth, 2014-2018
    • Revisions to Q1 2015 forecasts (kt)
    • Global aluminium production 2014-2018, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
    • Africa aluminium production 2014-2018, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
    • North America aluminium production 2014-2018, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
    • Latin America aluminium production 2014-2018, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
    • Middle East aluminium production 2014-2018, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
    • Chinese aluminium production increases, 2014-2018 (kt/a)
    • Asia aluminium production 2014-2018, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
    • Europe aluminium production 2014-2018, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
    • Russia and the Caspian aluminium production 2014-2018, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
    • Oceania aluminium production 2014-2018, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Rest of World alumina balances, China imports and Spot prices, 2014-2017, (kt)
    • Affordable alumina cost relative to the "all-in" aluminium prices
    • Chinese bauxite imports expected to be adequate in 2015-2017
    • Spot alumina prices Jun 2009-Jun 2015, (fob $/t)
    • Average one-year contract alumina prices, 1991-2035
    • Supply-demand balances: Table 3
    • Global SGA balance, 2014-2018, 2020, 2025 and 2035
    • Short-term contract alumina prices, 1980-2035, ($/t)
    • Global supply and demand balance, LME cash price and stocks in days of consumption
    • Global aluminium balance, 2014-2035
    • Less smelter capacity growth expected from China in the long term
    • Metal prices, cash costs and aluminium stocks
    • Average LME aluminium cash prices, 1991-2035 and incentive price ($/t)
    • Primary aluminium cash prices, 1980-2035, ($/t)
    • Global SGA market balances and prices (Mt)
    • Supply-demand balances: Table 8
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