Commodity market report

Global aluminium long-term outlook Q2 2015

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Report summary

Wood Mackenzie has downgraded its medium term aluminium price outlook. LME prices have continued to trend lower during Q2 with the cash price for Q2 on target to average below $1 800/t. For 2015 the LME price is forecast to be $1 793/t the lowest since 2009 with a moderate bounce back in 2016 to $1 887/t followed by a more meaningful gain in 2017 to $2 115/t. Prices are projected to find further support in terms of declining days of stocks from 2019 onwards.

What's included

This report contains

  • Document

    Aluminium Tables Q2 2015.pdf

    PDF 1.05 MB

  • Document

    Demand main changes aluminium LTO Q2 2015.xls

    XLS 211.00 KB

  • Document

    Demand analysis aluminium LTO Q2 2015.xls

    XLS 878.00 KB

  • Document

    Supply main changes aluminium LTO Q2 2015.xls

    XLS 364.00 KB

  • Document

    Production rankings aluminium LTO Q2 2015.xls

    XLS 474.50 KB

  • Document

    Smelter analysis aluminium LTO Q2 2015.xls

    XLS 774.00 KB

  • Document

    Refinery analysis aluminium LTO Q2 2015.xls

    XLS 574.50 KB

  • Document

    Market balance and prices aluminium LTO Q2 2015.xls

    XLS 264.50 KB

  • Document

    Global aluminium long-term outlook Q2 2015

    PDF 1.02 MB

  • Document

    Global aluminium long-term outlook Q2 2015

    ZIP 3.85 MB

  • Document

    Slide pack aluminium LTO Q2 2015.pdf

    PDF 997.20 KB

  • Document

    Executive summary

    PDF 91.95 KB

  • Document

    Demand

    PDF 381.28 KB

  • Document

    Supply

    PDF 353.05 KB

  • Document

    Supply-demand balances

    PDF 330.71 KB

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
  • Demand
  • Supply
  • Supply-demand balances

Tables and charts

This report includes 64 images and tables including:

Images

  • Affordable alumina cost relative to the "all-in" aluminium prices
  • Chinese bauxite imports expected to be adequate in 2015-2017
  • Short-term contract alumina prices, 1980-2035, ($/t)
  • Global supply and demand balance, LME cash price and stocks in days of consumption
  • Less smelter capacity growth expected from China in the long term
  • Metal prices, cash costs and aluminium stocks
  • Primary aluminium cash prices, 1980-2035, ($/t)
  • China residential and non-residential construction split (M sq m)
  • Brazil downstream aluminium demand by sector
  • China bauxite imports, Feb 2011-Apr 2015, (Mt)
  • Spot alumina prices Jun 2009-Jun 2015, (fob $/t)
  • Chinese aluminium can making capacity by company
  • Chinese can making plant capacity distribution
  • Investment breakdown between state and southern grid
  • European car production
  • European construction
  • Automotive sheet supply demand balance
  • Chinese exports of semis to US
  • Actual and refinery capacity utilisation, 2007-2025
  • Global alumina capacity and demand, 2005-2035
  • Contributions to 24Mt/a alumina supply growth before adjustments, 2014-2018
  • China bauxite imports, Feb 2011-Apr 2015, (Mt)
  • Global and ROW smelter capacity utilisation, 2007-2025
  • Contributions to 12Mt/a aluminium supply growth, 2014-2018

Tables

  • Global primary aluminium consumption (Mt)
  • Main changes to primary aluminium consumption forecast Q1 2015 vs Q2 2015 (kt)
  • Rest of World alumina balances, China imports and Spot prices, 2014-2017, (kt)
  • Average one-year contract alumina prices, 1991-2035
  • Supply-demand balances: Table 3
  • Global SGA balance, 2014-2018, 2020, 2025 and 2035
  • Global aluminium balance, 2014-2035
  • Average LME aluminium cash prices, 1991-2035 and incentive price ($/t)
  • Asia primary aluminium consumption kt
  • Chinese primary aluminium consumption (Mt and year-on-year % growth)
  • Metro rail projects
  • Middle Eastern primary aluminium consumption (kt)
  • European primary aluminium consumption (kt)
  • Americas primary aluminium consumption (kt)
  • Revisions to Q1 2015 forecast, (kt)
  • Global alumina production 2014-2018, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
  • Revisions to Q1 2015 forecasts (kt)
  • Global aluminium production 2014-2018, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
  • Global SGA market balances and prices (Mt)
  • Supply-demand balances: Table 8
  • Africa alumina production 2014-2018, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
  • North America alumina production 2014-2018, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
  • Latin America alumina production 2014-2018, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
  • Middle East alumina production 2014-2018, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
  • Chinese alumina production increases, 2014-2018 (kt/a)
  • Supply: Table 8
  • Asia alumina production 2014-2018, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
  • Europe alumina production 2014-2018, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
  • Russia and the Caspian alumina production 2014-2018, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
  • Oceania alumina production 2014-2018, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
  • Projected Non-China aluminium production increases, 2014-2018, (kt)
  • Africa aluminium production 2014-2018, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
  • North America aluminium production 2014-2018, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
  • Latin America aluminium production 2014-2018, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
  • Middle East aluminium production 2014-2018, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
  • Chinese aluminium production increases, 2014-2018 (kt/a)
  • Asia aluminium production 2014-2018, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
  • Europe aluminium production 2014-2018, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
  • Russia and the Caspian aluminium production 2014-2018, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
  • Oceania aluminium production 2014-2018, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)

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