Commodity market report
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97 Pages

Global aluminium long-term outlook Q2 2016


Global aluminium long-term outlook Q2 2016

Report summary

Much to our surprise Chinese producers have, on paper at least, shown reasonable restraint in keeping Q4 2015 idled capacity offline through the first half of 2016. Together with some stability in key Chinese end use markets on the back of short term stimulus measures, market sentiment improved, dragging prices off their early 2016 lows. Indeed, The Q2 LME cash price average currently stands at $1,562/t versus $1,515/t in Q1. Prices during the latter part of June have been hovering above $1,600/t driven by a weaker US dollar and receding fears over the UK exit from the EU. Our concern is that the mildly positive demand tone in China will mostly likely be short lived while China continues to add new low cost capacity, incentivised by recent price stability. With demand growth projected to slow over the next few years we expect multi year surpluses through 2019 in a market saddled with historically high inventory levels.

What's included?

This report includes 11 file(s)

  • Global aluminium long-term outlook Q2 2016 PDF - 1.03 MB 97 Pages, 50 Tables, 30 Figures
  • Slide pack aluminium LTO Q2 2016.pdf PDF - 737.30 KB
  • Aluminium Tables Q2 2016.pdf PDF - 1.19 MB
  • Demand main changes aluminium LTO Q2 2016.xls XLS - 290.50 KB
  • Demand analysis aluminium LTO Q2 2016.xls XLS - 882.50 KB
  • Supply main changes aluminium LTO Q2 2016.xls XLS - 481.00 KB
  • Production rankings aluminium LTO Q2 2016.xls XLS - 473.50 KB
  • Smelter analysis aluminium LTO Q2 2016.xls XLS - 841.00 KB
  • Refinery analysis aluminium LTO Q2 2016.xls XLS - 576.00 KB
  • Mine analysis aluminium LTO Q2 2016.xls XLS - 419.00 KB
  • Market balance and prices aluminium LTO Q2 2016.xls XLS - 271.50 KB

Description

As global demand weakens and commodity prices fall, we're seeing a challenging environment in the metals and mining industry. Mining companies are increasingly coming under pressure to reduce operating costs, causing many to shift their strategic planning, delay new investments and look to long-term future growth.

This Aluminium Long Term Outlook report provides a detailed breakdown of global supply and demand balances in this market, as well as price forecasts.

Mining companies, investment banks and investors can use this report to understand the future direction of the ferrous and base metals market. It will also help you assess the impact of key industry issues and events on market balances and pricing.

From acquisitions to investments, Wood Mackenzie helps you plan, forecast and benchmark in the metals markets. Our proprietary database and analyst expertise combines robust production, consumption and pricing data with detailed analysis to identify market opportunities.

We give you a holistic view of the ferrous and base metals markets so you have the confidence to make strategic decisions.

  • Executive summary
  • Demand
    • Overview
      • Changes to consumption forecasts since Q1 2016
    • Forecasts by region
      • Asia
      • China
        • Chinese primary aluminium consumption (Mt and year-on-year % growth)
      • Asia (ex-China)
        • India
        • Japan
        • South Korea
      • The Middle East
      • Europe
      • North America
  • Supply
    • Smelter production and capacity
      • Summary
        • China’s rebounding monthly smelter output
        • Projected Non-China aluminium production increases, 2015-2019, (kt)
        • Global and ROW smelter capacity utilisation, 2007-2025
        • Contributions to 7Mt/a aluminium supply growth, 2015-2019
      • Smelter production changes since Q1 2016 and forecasts
      • Global smelter production and capacity 2015-2035
      • Africa
      • North America
        • North America aluminium production 2015-2019, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
      • Latin America
        • Latin America aluminium production 2015-2019, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
      • Middle East
        • Middle East aluminium production 2015-2019, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
      • Asia
        • China’s smelter restarts in 2016 has been modest, (kt)
        • China’s rebounding monthly smelter output
      • Elsewhere in Asia
        • Asia aluminium production 2015-2019, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
      • Europe
        • Europe aluminium production 2015-2019, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
      • Russia and the Caspian
        • Russia and the Caspian aluminium production 2015-2019, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
      • Oceania
      • Refinery production and capacity
        • Summary
          • Global alumina capacity and demand, 2005-2035
        • Refinery production changes since Q1 2016 and forecasts
        • Global refinery production and capacity 2015-2035
        • Africa
          • Contributions to 18Mt/a alumina supply growth before adjustments, 2015-2019
        • North America
        • Latin America
          • Latin America alumina production 2015-2019, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
        • Middle East
          • Middle East alumina production 2015-2019, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
        • Asia
          • Asia alumina production 2015-2019, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
          • Chinese alumina production increases, 2015-2019 (kt/a)
          • Elsewhere in Asia
        • Europe
          • Europe alumina production 2015-2019, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
        • Russia and the Caspian
        • Oceania
    • Bauxite Production
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Aluminium market review and outlook

In this report there are 80 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
  • Demand
    • Global primary aluminium consumption (Mt)
    • Contribution to global primary demand growth by region, 2015 and 2035 (Mt)
    • Primary aluminium demand by region 2010 - 2035
    • Demand: Image 3
    • Demand: Image 4
    • Main changes to primary aluminium consumption forecast Q4 2015 vs Q1 2016 (kt)
    • Asia primary aluminium consumption kt
    • Demand: Table 4
    • China total demand end-use sectors (kt)
    • Demand: Image 6
    • Demand: Image 7
    • Demand: Image 8
    • Construction completions by category
    • Housing inventory levels to fall only over medium term
    • Chinese production of vehicles
    • Aluminium consumption and consumption per capita 2013 - 2035, (Mt and kg/capita)
    • Japanese production of aluminium windows, doors and exteriors
    • South Korea sheet & plate shipments
    • Middle Eastern primary aluminium consumption (Mt and year-on year % growth)
    • European primary aluminium consumption (Mt and year-on year % growth)
    • European car production
    • North American primary aluminium consumption (Mt and year-on year % growth)
    • North American car production
    • Sectoral demand for aluminium in North America
  • Supply
    • Supply: Image 1
    • Supply: Table 1
    • Supply: Image 2
    • Supply: Image 3
    • Revisions to Q1 2016 forecasts (kt)
    • Global aluminium production 2015-2018, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
    • Africa aluminium production 2015-2019, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
    • Supply: Table 5
    • Supply: Table 6
    • Supply: Table 7
    • Supply: Table 8
    • Supply: Table 9
    • Supply: Image 4
    • Supply: Table 10
    • Supply: Table 11
    • Supply: Table 12
    • Supply: Table 13
    • Oceania aluminium production 2015-2018, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
    • Supply: Table 15
    • Actual and required refinery capacity utilisation, 2007-2025
    • Supply: Image 6
    • Revisions to Q1 2016 forecast, (kt)
    • Global alumina production 2015-2019, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
    • Africa alumina production 2015-2019, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
    • Supply: Image 7
    • Supply: Table 19
    • Supply: Table 20
    • Supply: Table 21
    • Supply: Table 22
    • Supply: Table 23
    • Supply: Table 24
    • Supply: Table 25
    • Oceania alumina production 2015-2018, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
    • Supply: Table 27
    • Supply: Table 28
    • Supply: Table 29
    • Supply: Table 30
    • Supply: Table 31
    • Supply: Table 32
    • Atlantic Seaborne supply & demand (before adj), 2010-2030, Mt
    • Indo-Pacific Seaborne supply & demand (before adj), 2010-2030, Mt
    • Supply: Table 33
    • Supply: Table 34
    • Supply: Table 35
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Supply-demand balances: Table 1
    • Supply-demand balances: Table 2
    • Supply-demand balances: Table 3
    • 2016 Chinese bauxite requirement split (%)
    • 2030 Chinese bauxite requirement split (%)
    • Supply-demand balances: Table 4
    • Supply-demand balances: Table 5
    • Historical and equilibrium alumina prices (2016 US$/t)
    • Historical and equilibrium aluminium prices (2016 US$/t)
    • Supply-demand balances: Table 6
    • Supply-demand balances: Table 7
    • Supply-demand balances: Table 8
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