Commodity Market Report

Global aluminium long-term outlook Q2 2016

Get this report

$6,750

You can pay by card or invoice

Contact us

Submit your details to receive further information about this report.

For details on how your data is used and stored, see our Privacy Notice.
 

- Available as part of a subscription
- FAQ's about online orders

20 June 2016

Global aluminium long-term outlook Q2 2016

Report summary

Much to our surprise Chinese producers have, on paper at least, shown reasonable restraint in keeping Q4 2015 idled capacity offline through the first half of 2016. Together with some stability in key Chinese end use markets on the back of short term stimulus measures, market sentiment improved, dragging prices off their early 2016 lows. Indeed, The Q2 LME cash price average currently stands at $1,562/t versus $1,515/t in Q1. Prices during the latter part of June have been hovering above $1,600/t driven by a weaker US dollar and receding fears over the UK exit from the EU. Our concern is that the mildly positive demand tone in China will mostly likely be short lived while China continues to add new low cost capacity, incentivised by recent price stability. With demand growth projected to slow over the next few years we expect multi year surpluses through 2019 in a market saddled with historically high inventory levels.

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
    • Overview
      • Changes to consumption forecasts since Q1 2016
    • Forecasts by region
      • Asia
      • China
        • Chinese primary aluminium consumption (Mt and year-on-year % growth)
      • Asia (ex-China)
        • India
        • Japan
        • South Korea
      • The Middle East
      • Europe
      • North America
    • Smelter production and capacity
      • Summary
        • China’s rebounding monthly smelter output
        • Projected Non-China aluminium production increases, 2015-2019, (kt)
        • Global and ROW smelter capacity utilisation, 2007-2025
        • Contributions to 7Mt/a aluminium supply growth, 2015-2019
      • Smelter production changes since Q1 2016 and forecasts
      • Global smelter production and capacity 2015-2035
      • Africa
      • North America
        • North America aluminium production 2015-2019, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
      • Latin America
        • Latin America aluminium production 2015-2019, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
      • Middle East
        • Middle East aluminium production 2015-2019, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
      • Asia
        • China’s smelter restarts in 2016 has been modest, (kt)
        • China’s rebounding monthly smelter output
      • Elsewhere in Asia
        • Asia aluminium production 2015-2019, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
      • Europe
        • Europe aluminium production 2015-2019, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
      • Russia and the Caspian
        • Russia and the Caspian aluminium production 2015-2019, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
      • Oceania
      • Refinery production and capacity
        • Summary
          • Global alumina capacity and demand, 2005-2035
        • Refinery production changes since Q1 2016 and forecasts
        • Global refinery production and capacity 2015-2035
        • Africa
          • Contributions to 18Mt/a alumina supply growth before adjustments, 2015-2019
        • North America
        • Latin America
          • Latin America alumina production 2015-2019, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
        • Middle East
          • Middle East alumina production 2015-2019, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
        • Asia
          • Asia alumina production 2015-2019, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
          • Chinese alumina production increases, 2015-2019 (kt/a)
          • Elsewhere in Asia
        • Europe
          • Europe alumina production 2015-2019, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
        • Russia and the Caspian
        • Oceania
    • Bauxite Production
    • Aluminium market review and outlook

Tables and charts

This report includes 80 images and tables including:

  • Global primary aluminium consumption (Mt)
  • Contribution to global primary demand growth by region, 2015 and 2035 (Mt)
  • Primary aluminium demand by region 2010 - 2035
  • Demand: Image 3
  • Demand: Image 4
  • Supply: Table 27
  • Supply: Table 28
  • Supply: Table 29
  • Supply: Table 30
  • Supply: Table 31
  • Supply: Table 32
  • Atlantic Seaborne supply & demand (before adj), 2010-2030, Mt
  • Indo-Pacific Seaborne supply & demand (before adj), 2010-2030, Mt
  • Supply: Table 33
  • Supply: Table 34
  • Supply: Table 35
  • Supply-demand balances: Table 1
  • Supply-demand balances: Table 2
  • Supply-demand balances: Table 3
  • 2016 Chinese bauxite requirement split (%)
  • 2030 Chinese bauxite requirement split (%)
  • Supply-demand balances: Table 4
  • Supply-demand balances: Table 5
  • Historical and equilibrium alumina prices (2016 US$/t)
  • Historical and equilibrium aluminium prices (2016 US$/t)
  • Supply-demand balances: Table 6
  • Supply-demand balances: Table 7
  • Supply-demand balances: Table 8
  • Main changes to primary aluminium consumption forecast Q4 2015 vs Q1 2016 (kt)
  • Asia primary aluminium consumption kt
  • Middle Eastern primary aluminium consumption (Mt and year-on year % growth)
  • European primary aluminium consumption (Mt and year-on year % growth)
  • European car production
  • North American primary aluminium consumption (Mt and year-on year % growth)
  • North American car production
  • Sectoral demand for aluminium in North America
  • Revisions to Q1 2016 forecasts (kt)
  • Global aluminium production 2015-2018, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
  • Africa aluminium production 2015-2019, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
  • Oceania aluminium production 2015-2018, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
  • Demand: Table 4
  • China total demand end-use sectors (kt)
  • Demand: Image 6
  • Demand: Image 7
  • Demand: Image 8
  • Construction completions by category
  • Housing inventory levels to fall only over medium term
  • Chinese production of vehicles
  • Aluminium consumption and consumption per capita 2013 - 2035, (Mt and kg/capita)
  • Japanese production of aluminium windows, doors and exteriors
  • South Korea sheet & plate shipments
  • Supply: Image 1
  • Supply: Table 1
  • Supply: Image 2
  • Supply: Image 3
  • Supply: Table 5
  • Supply: Table 6
  • Supply: Table 7
  • Supply: Table 8
  • Supply: Table 9
  • Supply: Image 4
  • Supply: Table 10
  • Supply: Table 11
  • Supply: Table 12
  • Supply: Table 13
  • Supply: Table 15
  • Actual and required refinery capacity utilisation, 2007-2025
  • Revisions to Q1 2016 forecast, (kt)
  • Global alumina production 2015-2019, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
  • Africa alumina production 2015-2019, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
  • Supply: Table 19
  • Supply: Table 25
  • Oceania alumina production 2015-2018, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
  • Supply: Image 6
  • Supply: Image 7
  • Supply: Table 20
  • Supply: Table 21
  • Supply: Table 22
  • Supply: Table 23
  • Supply: Table 24

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Global aluminium long-term outlook Q2 2016

    ZIP 3.93 MB

  • Document

    Slide pack aluminium LTO Q2 2016.pdf

    PDF 737.30 KB

  • Document

    Aluminium Tables Q2 2016.pdf

    PDF 1.19 MB

  • Document

    Demand main changes aluminium LTO Q2 2016.xls

    XLS 290.50 KB

  • Document

    Demand analysis aluminium LTO Q2 2016.xls

    XLS 882.50 KB

  • Document

    Supply main changes aluminium LTO Q2 2016.xls

    XLS 481.00 KB

  • Document

    Production rankings aluminium LTO Q2 2016.xls

    XLS 473.50 KB

  • Document

    Smelter analysis aluminium LTO Q2 2016.xls

    XLS 841.00 KB

  • Document

    Refinery analysis aluminium LTO Q2 2016.xls

    XLS 576.00 KB

  • Document

    Mine analysis aluminium LTO Q2 2016.xls

    XLS 419.00 KB

  • Document

    Market balance and prices aluminium LTO Q2 2016.xls

    XLS 271.50 KB

  • Document

    Global aluminium long-term outlook Q2 2016

    PDF 1.03 MB

  • Document

    Executive summary

    PDF 89.33 KB

  • Document

    Demand

    PDF 271.66 KB

  • Document

    Supply

    PDF 442.55 KB

  • Document

    Supply-demand balances

    PDF 355.48 KB

Other reports you may be interested in

Browse reports by Industry Sector