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Global aluminium long-term outlook Q2 2016

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Report summary

Much to our surprise Chinese producers have on paper at least shown reasonable restraint in keeping Q4 2015 idled capacity offline through the first half of 2016. Together with some stability in key Chinese end use markets on the back of short term stimulus measures market sentiment improved dragging prices off their early 2016 lows. Indeed The Q2 LME cash price average currently stands at $1 562/t versus $1 515/t in Q1. Prices during the latter part of June have been hovering above $1 600/t driven by a weaker US dollar and receding fears over the UK exit from the EU. Our concern is that the mildly positive demand tone in China will mostly likely be short lived while China continues to add new low cost capacity incentivised by recent price stability. With demand growth projected to slow over the next few years we expect multi year surpluses through 2019 in a market saddled with historically high inventory levels.

What's included

This report contains

  • Document

    Global aluminium long-term outlook Q2 2016

    ZIP 3.93 MB

  • Document

    Slide pack aluminium LTO Q2 2016.pdf

    PDF 737.30 KB

  • Document

    Aluminium Tables Q2 2016.pdf

    PDF 1.19 MB

  • Document

    Demand main changes aluminium LTO Q2 2016.xls

    XLS 290.50 KB

  • Document

    Demand analysis aluminium LTO Q2 2016.xls

    XLS 882.50 KB

  • Document

    Supply main changes aluminium LTO Q2 2016.xls

    XLS 481.00 KB

  • Document

    Production rankings aluminium LTO Q2 2016.xls

    XLS 473.50 KB

  • Document

    Smelter analysis aluminium LTO Q2 2016.xls

    XLS 841.00 KB

  • Document

    Refinery analysis aluminium LTO Q2 2016.xls

    XLS 576.00 KB

  • Document

    Mine analysis aluminium LTO Q2 2016.xls

    XLS 419.00 KB

  • Document

    Market balance and prices aluminium LTO Q2 2016.xls

    XLS 271.50 KB

  • Document

    Global aluminium long-term outlook Q2 2016

    PDF 1.03 MB

  • Document

    Executive summary

    PDF 89.33 KB

  • Document

    Demand

    PDF 271.66 KB

  • Document

    Supply

    PDF 442.55 KB

  • Document

    Supply-demand balances

    PDF 355.48 KB

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
  • Demand
  • Supply
  • Supply-demand balances

Tables and charts

This report includes 80 images and tables including:

Images

  • Contribution to global primary demand growth by region, 2015 and 2035 (Mt)
  • Primary aluminium demand by region 2010 - 2035
  • Demand: Image 3
  • Demand: Image 4
  • Atlantic Seaborne supply & demand (before adj), 2010-2030, Mt
  • Indo-Pacific Seaborne supply & demand (before adj), 2010-2030, Mt
  • 2016 Chinese bauxite requirement split (%)
  • 2030 Chinese bauxite requirement split (%)
  • Historical and equilibrium alumina prices (2016 US$/t)
  • Historical and equilibrium aluminium prices (2016 US$/t)
  • European car production
  • North American car production
  • Sectoral demand for aluminium in North America
  • China total demand end-use sectors (kt)
  • Demand: Image 6
  • Demand: Image 7
  • Demand: Image 8
  • Construction completions by category
  • Housing inventory levels to fall only over medium term
  • Chinese production of vehicles
  • Aluminium consumption and consumption per capita 2013 - 2035, (Mt and kg/capita)
  • Japanese production of aluminium windows, doors and exteriors
  • South Korea sheet & plate shipments
  • Supply: Image 1
  • Supply: Image 2
  • Supply: Image 3
  • Supply: Image 4
  • Actual and required refinery capacity utilisation, 2007-2025
  • Supply: Image 6
  • Supply: Image 7

Tables

  • Global primary aluminium consumption (Mt)
  • Supply: Table 27
  • Supply: Table 28
  • Supply: Table 29
  • Supply: Table 30
  • Supply: Table 31
  • Supply: Table 32
  • Supply: Table 33
  • Supply: Table 34
  • Supply: Table 35
  • Supply-demand balances: Table 1
  • Supply-demand balances: Table 2
  • Supply-demand balances: Table 3
  • Supply-demand balances: Table 4
  • Supply-demand balances: Table 5
  • Supply-demand balances: Table 6
  • Supply-demand balances: Table 7
  • Supply-demand balances: Table 8
  • Main changes to primary aluminium consumption forecast Q4 2015 vs Q1 2016 (kt)
  • Asia primary aluminium consumption kt
  • Middle Eastern primary aluminium consumption (Mt and year-on year % growth)
  • European primary aluminium consumption (Mt and year-on year % growth)
  • North American primary aluminium consumption (Mt and year-on year % growth)
  • Revisions to Q1 2016 forecasts (kt)
  • Global aluminium production 2015-2018, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
  • Africa aluminium production 2015-2019, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
  • Oceania aluminium production 2015-2018, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
  • Demand: Table 4
  • Supply: Table 1
  • Supply: Table 5
  • Supply: Table 6
  • Supply: Table 7
  • Supply: Table 8
  • Supply: Table 9
  • Supply: Table 10
  • Supply: Table 11
  • Supply: Table 12
  • Supply: Table 13
  • Supply: Table 15
  • Revisions to Q1 2016 forecast, (kt)
  • Global alumina production 2015-2019, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
  • Africa alumina production 2015-2019, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
  • Supply: Table 19
  • Supply: Table 25
  • Oceania alumina production 2015-2018, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
  • Supply: Table 20
  • Supply: Table 21
  • Supply: Table 22
  • Supply: Table 23
  • Supply: Table 24

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