Commodity Market Report

Global aluminium long-term outlook Q2 2017

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22 June 2017

Global aluminium long-term outlook Q2 2017

Report summary

The aluminium metal market service long term outlook (LTO) is published quarterly and provides a detailed forecast of aluminium  supply and demand fundamentals out to 2035. Our assessment of market fundamentals points to a global market balance that is close to balanced over the next few years. We now expect a market surplus of just 400 kt in 2017 followed by a balanced-to-slight deficit market over the 2018-2020 period. The main drivers of this outlook are an upward revision to demand growth in world ex-China coupled with some output restraint in China on the back of possible curbs on unauthorised new capacity and pollution related cutbacks. However, the market will continue to carry a high level of inventory with stocks in terms of days of consumption still running well above our long term trend of 70 days.

Why buy this report?

This report equips you with long-term, commodity-specific data so that you can:

  • Plan, forecast and benchmark opportunities in the global aluminium market
  • Identify opportunities in the global aluminium market
  • Understand how potential smelter curtailments within China and outside it could affect investment and price

Our analysis gives you a holistic view of ferrous and base metals markets so whether you're operating a mine or investing in a commodity, you can base your decision on objective, proprietary data. 

This comprehensive aluminium market forecast offers detailed data and analysis looking out nearly 20 years. It includes:

  • Supply, demand, smelter, refinery, production and mine analysis by the numbers
  • A look at what's changed for the aluminium market, revised upward for demand growth in Chinese smelter output  
  • Analysis of uncertainties surrounding supply and the potential for a market surplus
  • A raised outlook for China's import requirement of bauxite

Table of contents

    • What’s changed?
    • Demand update
    • Supply update
    • Supply-demand balances update

Tables and charts

No table or charts specified

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Slide pack aluminium LTO Q2 2017.pdf

    PDF 1.91 MB

  • Document

    Demand main changes aluminium LTO Q2 2017.xls

    XLS 279.50 KB

  • Document

    Demand analysis aluminium LTO Q2 2017.xls

    XLS 888.50 KB

  • Document

    Supply main changes aluminium LTO Q2 2017.xls

    XLS 593.00 KB

  • Document

    Production rankings aluminium LTO Q2 2017.xls

    XLS 474.00 KB

  • Document

    Smelter analysis aluminium LTO Q2 2017.xls

    XLS 943.00 KB

  • Document

    Refinery analysis aluminium LTO Q2 2017.xls

    XLS 677.00 KB

  • Document

    Mine analysis aluminium LTO Q2 2017.xls

    XLS 451.00 KB

  • Document

    Market balance and prices aluminium LTO Q2 2017.xls

    XLS 273.50 KB

  • Document

    Aluminium Tables Q2 2017.pdf

    PDF 1.17 MB

  • Document

    Global aluminium long-term outlook Q2 2017

    ZIP 4.04 MB