The aluminium metal market service long term outlook (LTO) is published quarterly and provides a detailed forecast of aluminium supply and demand fundamentals out to 2035. Our assessment of market fundamentals points to a global market balance that is close to balanced over the next few years. We now expect a market surplus of just 400 kt in 2017 followed by a balanced-to-slight deficit market over the 2018-2020 period. The main drivers of this outlook are an upward revision to demand growth in world ex-China coupled with some output restraint in China on the back of possible curbs on unauthorised new capacity and pollution related cutbacks. However, the market will continue to carry a high level of inventory with stocks in terms of days of consumption still running well above our long term trend of 70 days.
Why buy this report?
This report equips you with long-term, commodity-specific data so that you can:
Plan, forecast and benchmark opportunities in the global aluminium market
Identify opportunities in the global aluminium market
Understand how potential smelter curtailments within China and outside it could affect investment and price
Our analysis gives you a holistic view of ferrous and base metals markets so whether you're operating a mine or investing in a commodity, you can base your decision on objective, proprietary data.
This comprehensive aluminium market forecast offers detailed data and analysis looking out nearly 20 years. It includes:
Supply, demand, smelter, refinery, production and mine analysis by the numbers
A look at what's changed for the aluminium market, revised upward for demand growth in Chinese smelter output
Analysis of uncertainties surrounding supply and the potential for a market surplus
A raised outlook for China's import requirement of bauxite