Commodity market report
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70 Pages

Global aluminium long-term outlook Q3 2014


Global aluminium long-term outlook Q3 2014

Report summary

We expect global primary aluminium consumption growth to average 5.2% over the 2013-2017 period, driven by firm demand growth in emerging markets and by the increasing penetration of aluminium in end-use sectors such as automotive, transportation and power

What's included?

This report includes 9 file(s)

  • Global aluminium long-term outlook Q3 2014 PDF - 861.71 KB 70 Pages, 41 Tables, 19 Figures
  • Aluminium Tables LTO Q3 2014.pdf PDF - 3.72 MB
  • Demand main changes aluminium LTO Q3 2014.xls XLS - 209.00 KB
  • Demand analysis aluminium LTO Q3 2014.xls XLS - 878.50 KB
  • Supply main changes aluminium LTO Q3 2014.xls XLS - 337.50 KB
  • Production rankings aluminium LTO Q3 2014.xls XLS - 474.00 KB
  • Smelter analysis aluminium LTO Q3 2014.xls XLS - 809.50 KB
  • Refinery analysis aluminium LTO Q3 2014.xls XLS - 571.50 KB
  • Market balance and prices aluminium LTO Q3 2014.xls XLS - 277.50 KB

Description

As global demand weakens and commodity prices fall, we're seeing a challenging environment in the metals and mining industry. Mining companies are increasingly coming under pressure to reduce operating costs, causing many to shift their strategic planning, delay new investments and look to long-term future growth.

This Aluminium Long Term Outlook report provides a detailed breakdown of global supply and demand balances in this market, as well as price forecasts.

Mining companies, investment banks and investors can use this report to understand the future direction of the ferrous and base metals market. It will also help you assess the impact of key industry issues and events on market balances and pricing.

From acquisitions to investments, Wood Mackenzie helps you plan, forecast and benchmark in the metals markets. Our proprietary database and analyst expertise combines robust production, consumption and pricing data with detailed analysis to identify market opportunities.

We give you a holistic view of the ferrous and base metals markets so you have the confidence to make strategic decisions.

  • Executive summary
  • Demand
    • Overview
    • Changes to consumption forecasts since Q2 2014
    • Forecasts by region
      • Asia
      • China
      • Asia (ex-China)
      • The Middle East
      • Europe
      • North America
      • Latin America
  • Supply
    • Refinery production and capacity
      • Summary
    • Refinery production changes since Q2 2014 and forecasts
      • Africa
      • North America
      • Latin America
      • Middle East
      • Asia
      • Elsewhere in Asia
      • Europe
      • Russia and the Caspian
      • Oceania
    • Smelter production and capacity
      • Summary
      • Global smelter production and capacity 2013-35
      • Africa
      • North America
      • Latin America
      • Middle East
      • Asia
      • Elsewhere in Asia
      • Europe
      • Russia and the Caspian
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Alumina market outlook

In this report there are 60 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
  • Demand
    • Global primary aluminium consumption (Mt)
    • Demand: Table 2
    • Main changes to primary aluminium consumption forecast Q2 2014 vs Q3 2014 (kt)
    • Asia primary aluminium consumption kt
    • Chinese primary aluminium consumption (Mt and year-on-year % growth)
    • Chinese Total aluminium consumption and IP forecast
    • Rural and urban housing completions (M sq m)
    • Non-residential completions (M sq m)
    • Total aluminium demand from the automotive sector
    • Total Chinese aluminium consumption and consumption per capita
    • Middle Eastern primary aluminium consumption (kt)
    • Demand: Table 7
    • Growth in European heat treated capacity and production
    • North America primary aluminium consumption (kt)
    • North American demand for aluminium by sector
    • North American aluminium demand by product type
    • Latin America primary aluminium consumption (kt)
    • Required Brazilian primary aluminium imports
  • Supply
    • Actual and required refinery capacity utilisation, 2005-2020
    • Global alumina capacity and demand, 2005-2035
    • Revisions to Q2 2014 forecast, (kt)
    • Global refinery production and capacity 2013-20
    • Global alumina production 2013-2017, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
    • Africa alumina production 2013-2017, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
    • Contributions to 24Mt/a alumina supply growth before adjustments, 2013-2017
    • North America alumina production 2013-2017, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
    • Latin America alumina production 2013-2016, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
    • Middle East alumina production 2013-2017, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
    • Asia alumina production 2013-2017, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
    • Chinese alumina production increases, 2013-2017 (kt/a)
    • Chinese bauxite imports slowly moving higher
    • Europe alumina production 2013-2017, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
    • Russia and the Caspian alumina production 2013-2017, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
    • Oceania alumina production 2013-2017, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
    • Projected Non-China aluminium production increases, 2013-2018, (kt)
    • Global and ROW smelter capacity utilisation, 2006-2020
    • Contributions to 12.1Mt/a aluminium supply growth, 2013-2017
    • Smelter production changes since Q2 2014 and forecasts
    • Global aluminium production 2013-2017, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
    • Africa aluminium production 2013-2017, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
    • North America aluminium production 2013-2017, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
    • Latin America aluminium production 2013-2017, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
    • Middle East aluminium production 2013-2017, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
    • Chinese capacity closures in 2013 (kt/a)
    • Chinese aluminium production increases, 2012-2016 (kt/a)
    • Supply: Table 21
    • Europe aluminium production 2013-2017, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
    • Russia and the Caspian aluminium production 2013-2017, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Chinese bauxite imports slowly moving higher
    • Impact of aluminium premiums on smelters alumina
    • Relatively modest smelter restarts could boost SGA demand and prices
    • Spot alumina prices Jan 2008-Sept 2014, (fob $/t)
    • Rest of World alumina balances, China imports and Spot prices, 2013-2016, (kt)
    • Long-term alumina prices
    • Supply-demand balances: Table 4
    • Supply-demand balances: Table 5
    • Supply-demand balances: Table 6
    • Supply-demand balances: Table 7
    • Supply-demand balances: Table 8
    • Supply-demand balances: Table 9
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