Commodity Market Report

Global aluminium long-term outlook Q3 2015

From

$6,750.00

You can pay by card or invoice

From

$6,750.00

You can pay by card or invoice

Get this Commodity Market Report as part of a subscription

Enquire about subscriptions

Already have a subscription? Sign In

Further information

Pay by Invoice or Credit Card FAQs

Contact us

Submit your details to receive further information about this report.

For details on how your data is used and stored, see our Privacy Notice.
 

Report summary

Wood Mackenzie's Q3 aluminium Long Term Outlook analysis for global supply- demand dynamics and prices indicates a market that will be under pressure from a build up in metal surplus and low prices over the next 2-3 years. This is very much a China supply side story, with demand growth in the ROW projected to be steady, if not spectacular. The market in the ROW will remain tight, but more than offset by large surpluses in China, much of which will find a home in ROW markets. We estimate primary aluminium production of 57.3Mt in 2015, up 7.3% on 2014, with China contributing 31Mt to the total, a 12% year on year increase. We project further increases in Chinese production as global output growth jumps 6.7% in 2016. The onus is clearly on Chinese producers to address overcapacity. We expect the market to start the journey to balance only in 2018, with production adjustments primarily in China. Without production cuts we could be in for an extended period of weak market fundamentals.

What's included

This report contains

  • Document

    Aluminium Tables Q3 2015.pdf

    PDF 2.61 MB

  • Document

    Slide pack aluminium LTO Q3 2015.pdf

    PDF 875.00 KB

  • Document

    Demand main changes aluminium LTO Q3 2015.xls

    XLS 210.50 KB

  • Document

    Demand analysis aluminium LTO Q3 2015.xls

    XLS 888.00 KB

  • Document

    Supply main changes aluminium LTO Q3 2015.xls

    XLS 373.00 KB

  • Document

    Production rankings aluminium LTO Q3 2015.xls

    XLS 473.00 KB

  • Document

    Smelter analysis aluminium LTO Q3 2015.xls

    XLS 799.50 KB

  • Document

    Refinery analysis aluminium LTO Q3 2015.xls

    XLS 588.50 KB

  • Document

    Market balance and prices aluminium LTO Q3 2015.xls

    XLS 307.50 KB

  • Document

    Global aluminium long-term outlook Q3 2015

    PDF 945.46 KB

  • Document

    Global aluminium long-term outlook Q3 2015

    ZIP 4.18 MB

  • Document

    Executive summary

    PDF 88.67 KB

  • Document

    Demand

    PDF 279.73 KB

  • Document

    Supply

    PDF 348.12 KB

  • Document

    Supply-demand balances

    PDF 339.83 KB

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
      • Changes to consumption forecasts since Q2 2015
      • Asia
      • China
      • Chinese primary aluminium consumption (Mt and year-on-year % growth)
      • India
      • Japan
      • Thailand
      • The Middle East
      • Europe
      • European primary aluminium consumption (kt)
      • Americas
      • North America
      • Summary
      • Actual and refinery capacity utilisation, 2007-2025
      • Global alumina capacity and demand, 2005-2035
    • Refinery production changes since Q2 2015 and forecasts
      • Africa
      • Contributions to 23Mt/a alumina supply growth before adjustments, 2014-2018
      • North America
      • Latin America
      • Latin America alumina production 2014-2018, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
      • Middle East
      • Chinese alumina production increases, 2014-2018 (kt/a)
      • Some additional bauxite projects with China import potential
      • Elsewhere in Asia
      • Europe
      • Russia and the Caspian
      • Oceania
      • Summary
      • Projected Non-China aluminium production increases, 2014-2018, (kt)
      • Contributions to 10Mt/a aluminium supply growth, 2014-2018
    • Smelter production changes since Q2 2015 and forecasts
      • Africa
      • Africa aluminium production 2014-2018, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
      • North America
      • North America aluminium production 2014-2018, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
      • Latin America
      • Middle East
      • Middle East aluminium production 2014-2018, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
      • Asia
      • Chinese aluminium production increases, 2014-2018 (kt/a)
      • Elsewhere in Asia
      • Asia aluminium production 2014-2018, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
      • Europe
      • Russia and the Caspian
      • Oceania
    • Chinese cash costs reduced by 12-15% since 2013, ($/t)
    • Short-term contract alumina prices, 1980-2035, ($/t)
    • Global aluminium balance, 2014-2035
    • Alumina
    • 2004
    • 2005
    • 2006
    • 2007
    • 2008
    • Aluminium
    • 2005

Tables and charts

This report includes 63 images and tables including:

Tables

  • Global primary aluminium consumption (Mt)
  • Revisions to Q2 2015 forecast, (kt)
  • Global alumina production 2014-2018, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
  • Revisions to Q2 2015 forecasts (kt)
  • Global aluminium production 2014-2018, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
  • Supply-demand balances: Table 1
  • Supply-demand balances: Table 2
  • Average one-year contract alumina prices, 1991-2035
  • Supply-demand balances: Table 4
  • Global SGA balance, 2014-2018, 2020, 2025 and 2035
  • Supply-demand balances: Table 6
  • Supply-demand balances: Table 7
  • Supply-demand balances: Table 8
  • Supply-demand balances: Table 9
  • Main changes to primary aluminium consumption forecast Q2 2015 vs Q3 2015 (kt)
  • Asia primary aluminium consumption kt
  • Demand: Table 4
  • Middle Eastern primary aluminium consumption (kt)
  • Demand: Table 6
  • Americas primary aluminium consumption (kt)
  • Africa alumina production 2014-2018, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
  • Supply: Table 4
  • Supply: Table 5
  • Middle East alumina production 2014-2018, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
  • Supply: Table 7
  • Supply: Table 8
  • Supply: Table 9
  • Supply: Table 10
  • Russia and the Caspian alumina production 2014-2018, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
  • Supply: Table 12
  • Supply: Table 13
  • Supply: Table 16
  • Supply: Table 17
  • Latin America aluminium production 2014-2018, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
  • Supply: Table 19
  • Supply: Table 20
  • Supply: Table 21
  • Europe aluminium production 2014-2018, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
  • Russia and the Caspian aluminium production 2014-2018, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
  • Oceania aluminium production 2014-2018, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)

Images

  • Supply-demand balances: Image 1
  • Supply-demand balances: Image 2
  • Supply-demand balances: Image 3
  • Supply-demand balances: Image 4
  • Supply-demand balances: Image 5
  • Supply-demand balances: Image 6
  • Supply-demand balances: Image 7
  • Supply-demand balances: Image 8
  • Fixed asset investment growth by category
  • Total Chinese aluminium demand by end-use sectors (Mt)
  • Share of demand by end-use sector in China
  • Total construction completions
  • China primary-secondary demand split
  • Indian automotive production to surge
  • North America demand by semis product (Mt)
  • North America demand by end-use (Mt)
  • Supply: Image 1
  • Supply: Image 2
  • Supply: Image 3
  • Supply: Image 4
  • Supply: Image 5
  • Supply: Image 6
  • Supply: Image 7

You may be interested in

Questions about this report?

  • Europe:
    +44 131 243 4400
  • Americas:
    +1 713 470 1600
  • Asia Pacific:
    +65 6518 0800