Commodity market report
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73 Pages

Global aluminium long-term outlook Q3 2015


Global aluminium long-term outlook Q3 2015

Report summary

Wood Mackenzie's Q3 aluminium Long Term Outlook analysis for global supply- demand dynamics and prices indicates a market that will be under pressure from a build up in metal surplus and low prices over the next 2-3 years. This is very much a China supply side story, with demand growth in the ROW projected to be steady, if not spectacular. The market in the ROW will remain tight, but more than offset by large surpluses in China, much of which will find a home in ROW markets. We estimate primary aluminium production of 57.3Mt in 2015, up 7.3% on 2014, with China contributing 31Mt to the total, a 12% year on year increase. We project further increases in Chinese production as global output growth jumps 6.7% in 2016. The onus is clearly on Chinese producers to address overcapacity. We expect the market to start the journey to balance only in 2018, with production adjustments primarily in China. Without production cuts we could be in for an extended period of weak market fundamentals.

What's included?

This report includes 10 file(s)

  • Global aluminium long-term outlook Q3 2015 PDF - 945.46 KB 73 Pages, 40 Tables, 23 Figures
  • Aluminium Tables Q3 2015.pdf PDF - 2.61 MB
  • Slide pack aluminium LTO Q3 2015.pdf PDF - 875.00 KB
  • Demand main changes aluminium LTO Q3 2015.xls XLS - 210.50 KB
  • Demand analysis aluminium LTO Q3 2015.xls XLS - 888.00 KB
  • Supply main changes aluminium LTO Q3 2015.xls XLS - 373.00 KB
  • Production rankings aluminium LTO Q3 2015.xls XLS - 473.00 KB
  • Smelter analysis aluminium LTO Q3 2015.xls XLS - 799.50 KB
  • Refinery analysis aluminium LTO Q3 2015.xls XLS - 588.50 KB
  • Market balance and prices aluminium LTO Q3 2015.xls XLS - 307.50 KB

Description

As global demand weakens and commodity prices fall, we're seeing a challenging environment in the metals and mining industry. Mining companies are increasingly coming under pressure to reduce operating costs, causing many to shift their strategic planning, delay new investments and look to long-term future growth.

This Aluminium Long Term Outlook report provides a detailed breakdown of global supply and demand balances in this market, as well as price forecasts.

Mining companies, investment banks and investors can use this report to understand the future direction of the ferrous and base metals market. It will also help you assess the impact of key industry issues and events on market balances and pricing.

From acquisitions to investments, Wood Mackenzie helps you plan, forecast and benchmark in the metals markets. Our proprietary database and analyst expertise combines robust production, consumption and pricing data with detailed analysis to identify market opportunities.

We give you a holistic view of the ferrous and base metals markets so you have the confidence to make strategic decisions.

  • Executive summary
  • Demand
    • Overview
      • Changes to consumption forecasts since Q2 2015
    • Forecasts by region
      • Asia
      • China
      • Chinese primary aluminium consumption (Mt and year-on-year % growth)
      • India
      • Japan
      • Thailand
      • The Middle East
      • Europe
      • European primary aluminium consumption (kt)
      • Americas
      • North America
  • Supply
    • Refinery production and capacity
      • Summary
      • Actual and refinery capacity utilisation, 2007-2025
      • Global alumina capacity and demand, 2005-2035
    • Refinery production changes since Q2 2015 and forecasts
    • Global refinery production and capacity 2014-2035
      • Africa
      • Contributions to 23Mt/a alumina supply growth before adjustments, 2014-2018
      • North America
      • Latin America
      • Latin America alumina production 2014-2018, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
      • Middle East
      • Chinese alumina production increases, 2014-2018 (kt/a)
      • Some additional bauxite projects with China import potential
      • Elsewhere in Asia
      • Europe
      • Russia and the Caspian
      • Oceania
    • Smelter production and capacity
      • Summary
      • Projected Non-China aluminium production increases, 2014-2018, (kt)
      • Contributions to 10Mt/a aluminium supply growth, 2014-2018
    • Smelter production changes since Q2 2015 and forecasts
    • Global smelter production and capacity 2014-2035
      • Africa
      • Africa aluminium production 2014-2018, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
      • North America
      • North America aluminium production 2014-2018, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
      • Latin America
      • Middle East
      • Middle East aluminium production 2014-2018, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
      • Asia
      • Chinese aluminium production increases, 2014-2018 (kt/a)
      • Elsewhere in Asia
      • Asia aluminium production 2014-2018, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
      • Europe
      • Russia and the Caspian
      • Oceania
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Chinese cash costs reduced by 12-15% since 2013, ($/t)
    • Short-term contract alumina prices, 1980-2035, ($/t)
    • Global aluminium balance, 2014-2035
    • Alumina
    • 2004
    • 2005
    • 2006
    • 2007
    • 2008
    • Aluminium
    • 2005

In this report there are 63 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
  • Demand
    • Global primary aluminium consumption (Mt)
    • Main changes to primary aluminium consumption forecast Q2 2015 vs Q3 2015 (kt)
    • Asia primary aluminium consumption kt
    • Demand: Table 4
    • Fixed asset investment growth by category
    • Total Chinese aluminium demand by end-use sectors (Mt)
    • Share of demand by end-use sector in China
    • Total construction completions
    • China primary-secondary demand split
    • Indian automotive production to surge
    • Middle Eastern primary aluminium consumption (kt)
    • Demand: Table 6
    • Americas primary aluminium consumption (kt)
    • North America demand by semis product (Mt)
    • North America demand by end-use (Mt)
  • Supply
    • Supply: Image 1
    • Supply: Image 2
    • Supply: Image 3
    • Revisions to Q2 2015 forecast, (kt)
    • Global alumina production 2014-2018, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
    • Africa alumina production 2014-2018, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
    • Supply: Image 4
    • Supply: Table 4
    • Supply: Table 5
    • Middle East alumina production 2014-2018, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
    • Supply: Table 7
    • Supply: Image 5
    • Supply: Table 8
    • Supply: Table 9
    • Supply: Table 10
    • Russia and the Caspian alumina production 2014-2018, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
    • Supply: Table 12
    • Supply: Table 13
    • Supply: Image 6
    • Supply: Image 7
    • Revisions to Q2 2015 forecasts (kt)
    • Global aluminium production 2014-2018, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
    • Supply: Table 16
    • Supply: Table 17
    • Latin America aluminium production 2014-2018, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
    • Supply: Table 19
    • Supply: Table 20
    • Supply: Table 21
    • Europe aluminium production 2014-2018, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
    • Russia and the Caspian aluminium production 2014-2018, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
    • Oceania aluminium production 2014-2018, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Supply-demand balances: Table 1
    • Supply-demand balances: Table 2
    • Supply-demand balances: Image 1
    • Supply-demand balances: Image 2
    • Supply-demand balances: Image 3
    • Average one-year contract alumina prices, 1991-2035
    • Supply-demand balances: Table 4
    • Global SGA balance, 2014-2018, 2020, 2025 and 2035
    • Supply-demand balances: Image 4
    • Supply-demand balances: Image 5
    • Supply-demand balances: Table 6
    • Supply-demand balances: Image 6
    • Supply-demand balances: Image 7
    • Supply-demand balances: Table 7
    • Supply-demand balances: Image 8
    • Supply-demand balances: Table 8
    • Supply-demand balances: Table 9
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