Commodity Market Report
Global aluminium long-term outlook Q3 2015
Report summary
Wood Mackenzie's Q3 aluminium Long Term Outlook analysis for global supply- demand dynamics and prices indicates a market that will be under pressure from a build up in metal surplus and low prices over the next 2-3 years. This is very much a China supply side story, with demand growth in the ROW projected to be steady, if not spectacular. The market in the ROW will remain tight, but more than offset by large surpluses in China, much of which will find a home in ROW markets. We estimate primary aluminium production of 57.3Mt in 2015, up 7.3% on 2014, with China contributing 31Mt to the total, a 12% year on year increase. We project further increases in Chinese production as global output growth jumps 6.7% in 2016. The onus is clearly on Chinese producers to address overcapacity. We expect the market to start the journey to balance only in 2018, with production adjustments primarily in China. Without production cuts we could be in for an extended period of weak market fundamentals.
Table of contents
- Executive summary
-
Demand
-
Overview
- Changes to consumption forecasts since Q2 2015
-
Forecasts by region
- Asia
- China
- Chinese primary aluminium consumption (Mt and year-on-year % growth)
- India
- Japan
- Thailand
- The Middle East
- Europe
- European primary aluminium consumption (kt)
- Americas
- North America
-
Overview
-
Supply
-
Refinery production and capacity
- Summary
- Actual and refinery capacity utilisation, 2007-2025
- Global alumina capacity and demand, 2005-2035
- Refinery production changes since Q2 2015 and forecasts
-
Global refinery production and capacity 2014-2035
- Africa
- Contributions to 23Mt/a alumina supply growth before adjustments, 2014-2018
- North America
- Latin America
- Latin America alumina production 2014-2018, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
- Middle East
- Chinese alumina production increases, 2014-2018 (kt/a)
- Some additional bauxite projects with China import potential
- Elsewhere in Asia
- Europe
- Russia and the Caspian
- Oceania
-
Smelter production and capacity
- Summary
- Projected Non-China aluminium production increases, 2014-2018, (kt)
- Contributions to 10Mt/a aluminium supply growth, 2014-2018
- Smelter production changes since Q2 2015 and forecasts
-
Global smelter production and capacity 2014-2035
- Africa
- Africa aluminium production 2014-2018, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
- North America
- North America aluminium production 2014-2018, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
- Latin America
- Middle East
- Middle East aluminium production 2014-2018, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
- Asia
- Chinese aluminium production increases, 2014-2018 (kt/a)
- Elsewhere in Asia
- Asia aluminium production 2014-2018, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
- Europe
- Russia and the Caspian
- Oceania
-
Refinery production and capacity
-
Supply-demand balances
- Chinese cash costs reduced by 12-15% since 2013, ($/t)
- Short-term contract alumina prices, 1980-2035, ($/t)
- Global aluminium balance, 2014-2035
- Alumina
- 2004
- 2005
- 2006
- 2007
- 2008
- Aluminium
- 2005
Tables and charts
This report includes 63 images and tables including:
- Global primary aluminium consumption (Mt)
- Revisions to Q2 2015 forecast, (kt)
- Global alumina production 2014-2018, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
- Revisions to Q2 2015 forecasts (kt)
- Global aluminium production 2014-2018, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
- Supply-demand balances: Table 1
- Supply-demand balances: Table 2
- Supply-demand balances: Image 1
- Supply-demand balances: Image 2
- Supply-demand balances: Image 3
- Average one-year contract alumina prices, 1991-2035
- Supply-demand balances: Table 4
- Global SGA balance, 2014-2018, 2020, 2025 and 2035
- Supply-demand balances: Image 4
- Supply-demand balances: Image 5
- Supply-demand balances: Table 6
- Supply-demand balances: Image 6
- Supply-demand balances: Image 7
- Supply-demand balances: Table 7
- Supply-demand balances: Image 8
- Supply-demand balances: Table 8
- Supply-demand balances: Table 9
- Main changes to primary aluminium consumption forecast Q2 2015 vs Q3 2015 (kt)
- Asia primary aluminium consumption kt
- Demand: Table 4
- Fixed asset investment growth by category
- Total Chinese aluminium demand by end-use sectors (Mt)
- Share of demand by end-use sector in China
- Total construction completions
- China primary-secondary demand split
- Indian automotive production to surge
- Middle Eastern primary aluminium consumption (kt)
- Demand: Table 6
- Americas primary aluminium consumption (kt)
- North America demand by semis product (Mt)
- North America demand by end-use (Mt)
- Supply: Image 1
- Supply: Image 2
- Supply: Image 3
- Africa alumina production 2014-2018, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
- Supply: Image 4
- Supply: Table 4
- Supply: Table 5
- Middle East alumina production 2014-2018, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
- Supply: Table 7
- Supply: Image 5
- Supply: Table 8
- Supply: Table 9
- Supply: Table 10
- Russia and the Caspian alumina production 2014-2018, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
- Supply: Table 12
- Supply: Table 13
- Supply: Image 6
- Supply: Image 7
- Supply: Table 16
- Supply: Table 17
- Latin America aluminium production 2014-2018, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
- Supply: Table 19
- Supply: Table 20
- Supply: Table 21
- Europe aluminium production 2014-2018, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
- Russia and the Caspian aluminium production 2014-2018, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
- Oceania aluminium production 2014-2018, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
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