Commodity market report

Global aluminium long-term outlook Q3 2015

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Report summary

Wood Mackenzie's Q3 aluminium Long Term Outlook analysis for global supply demand dynamics and prices indicates a market that will be under pressure from a build up in metal surplus and low prices over the next 2 3 years. This is very much a China supply side story with demand growth in the ROW projected to be steady if not spectacular. The market in the ROW will remain tight but more than offset by large surpluses in China much of which will find a home in ROW markets. We estimate primary aluminium production of 57.3Mt in 2015 up 7.3% on 2014 with China contributing 31Mt to the total a 12% year on year increase. We project further increases in Chinese production as global output growth jumps 6.7% in 2016. The onus is clearly on Chinese producers to address overcapacity. We expect the market to start the journey to balance only in 2018 with production adjustments primarily in China. Without production cuts we could be in for an extended period of weak market fundamentals.

What's included

This report contains

  • Document

    Aluminium Tables Q3 2015.pdf

    PDF 2.61 MB

  • Document

    Slide pack aluminium LTO Q3 2015.pdf

    PDF 875.00 KB

  • Document

    Demand main changes aluminium LTO Q3 2015.xls

    XLS 210.50 KB

  • Document

    Demand analysis aluminium LTO Q3 2015.xls

    XLS 888.00 KB

  • Document

    Supply main changes aluminium LTO Q3 2015.xls

    XLS 373.00 KB

  • Document

    Production rankings aluminium LTO Q3 2015.xls

    XLS 473.00 KB

  • Document

    Smelter analysis aluminium LTO Q3 2015.xls

    XLS 799.50 KB

  • Document

    Refinery analysis aluminium LTO Q3 2015.xls

    XLS 588.50 KB

  • Document

    Market balance and prices aluminium LTO Q3 2015.xls

    XLS 307.50 KB

  • Document

    Global aluminium long-term outlook Q3 2015

    PDF 945.46 KB

  • Document

    Global aluminium long-term outlook Q3 2015

    ZIP 4.18 MB

  • Document

    Executive summary

    PDF 88.67 KB

  • Document

    Demand

    PDF 279.73 KB

  • Document

    Supply

    PDF 348.12 KB

  • Document

    Supply-demand balances

    PDF 339.83 KB

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
  • Demand
  • Supply
  • Supply-demand balances

Tables and charts

This report includes 63 images and tables including:

Images

  • Supply-demand balances: Image 1
  • Supply-demand balances: Image 2
  • Supply-demand balances: Image 3
  • Supply-demand balances: Image 4
  • Supply-demand balances: Image 5
  • Supply-demand balances: Image 6
  • Supply-demand balances: Image 7
  • Supply-demand balances: Image 8
  • Fixed asset investment growth by category
  • Total Chinese aluminium demand by end-use sectors (Mt)
  • Share of demand by end-use sector in China
  • Total construction completions
  • China primary-secondary demand split
  • Indian automotive production to surge
  • North America demand by semis product (Mt)
  • North America demand by end-use (Mt)
  • Supply: Image 1
  • Supply: Image 2
  • Supply: Image 3
  • Supply: Image 4
  • Supply: Image 5
  • Supply: Image 6
  • Supply: Image 7

Tables

  • Global primary aluminium consumption (Mt)
  • Revisions to Q2 2015 forecast, (kt)
  • Global alumina production 2014-2018, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
  • Revisions to Q2 2015 forecasts (kt)
  • Global aluminium production 2014-2018, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
  • Supply-demand balances: Table 1
  • Supply-demand balances: Table 2
  • Average one-year contract alumina prices, 1991-2035
  • Supply-demand balances: Table 4
  • Global SGA balance, 2014-2018, 2020, 2025 and 2035
  • Supply-demand balances: Table 6
  • Supply-demand balances: Table 7
  • Supply-demand balances: Table 8
  • Supply-demand balances: Table 9
  • Main changes to primary aluminium consumption forecast Q2 2015 vs Q3 2015 (kt)
  • Asia primary aluminium consumption kt
  • Demand: Table 4
  • Middle Eastern primary aluminium consumption (kt)
  • Demand: Table 6
  • Americas primary aluminium consumption (kt)
  • Africa alumina production 2014-2018, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
  • Supply: Table 4
  • Supply: Table 5
  • Middle East alumina production 2014-2018, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
  • Supply: Table 7
  • Supply: Table 8
  • Supply: Table 9
  • Supply: Table 10
  • Russia and the Caspian alumina production 2014-2018, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
  • Supply: Table 12
  • Supply: Table 13
  • Supply: Table 16
  • Supply: Table 17
  • Latin America aluminium production 2014-2018, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
  • Supply: Table 19
  • Supply: Table 20
  • Supply: Table 21
  • Europe aluminium production 2014-2018, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
  • Russia and the Caspian aluminium production 2014-2018, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
  • Oceania aluminium production 2014-2018, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)

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