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The aluminium metal market service long term outlook (LTO) is published quarterly and provides a detailed forecast of aluminium supply and demand fundamentals out to 2035. Our latest assessment of market fundamentals points to a market in reasonable surplus until 2019. While the short term demand picture has improved slightly it will not be enough to counter continued growth in output, both in China and the ROW. The risk to our forecast is that LME prices of around the $1,550/t - $1,650/t level will not only keep ROW smelters in production, but that low cost Chinese smelter operators will likely be incentivised to ramp-up production further and even reactivate idled capacity. We continue to maintain our assertion that the market requires China to fully address its structural oversupply issue for any fundamental rebalancing of the market. The central issue is that so long as China has ample capacity to produce semis its smelters will have a ready outlet for primary metal.
What's included?
This report includes 11 file(s)
Global aluminium long-term outlook Q3 2016 PDF - 1.11 MB 104 Pages, 51 Tables, 37 Figures
Slide pack aluminium LTO Q3 2016.pdf PDF - 1.26 MB
Description
As global demand weakens and commodity prices fall, we're seeing a challenging environment in the metals and mining industry. Mining companies are increasingly coming under pressure to reduce operating costs, causing many to shift their strategic planning, delay new investments and look to long-term future growth.
This Aluminium Long Term Outlook report provides a detailed breakdown of global supply and demand balances in this market, as well as price forecasts.
Mining companies, investment banks and investors can use this report to understand the future direction of the ferrous and base metals market. It will also help you assess the impact of key industry issues and events on market balances and pricing.
From acquisitions to investments, Wood Mackenzie helps you plan, forecast and benchmark in the metals markets. Our proprietary database and analyst expertise combines robust production, consumption and pricing data with detailed analysis to identify market opportunities.
We give you a holistic view of the ferrous and base metals markets so you have the confidence to make strategic decisions.
Wood Mackenzie's clients include every major player in the global energy, metals and mining industries. We are recognised as a leading authority by international and national energy, metals and mining companies, leading financial institutions, governments and government agencies. We work with a range of diverse teams within our clients, from strategy and policy makers, business developers and market analysts, through to corporate finance, risk teams and investors.
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As the trusted source of commercial intelligence for the world's natural resources sector for more than 40 years, we empower clients to make better strategic decisions with objective analysis and advice. Find out more...
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Commodity market report | Sep 2016
Global aluminium long-term outlook Q3 2016
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