Commodity market report
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104 Pages

Global aluminium long-term outlook Q3 2016


Global aluminium long-term outlook Q3 2016

Report summary

The aluminium metal market service long term outlook (LTO) is published quarterly and provides a detailed forecast of aluminium  supply and demand fundamentals out to 2035. Our latest assessment of market fundamentals points to a market in reasonable surplus until 2019. While the short term demand picture has improved slightly it will not be enough to counter continued growth in output, both in China and the ROW. The risk to our forecast is that LME prices of around the $1,550/t - $1,650/t level will not only keep ROW smelters in production, but that low cost Chinese smelter operators will likely be incentivised to ramp-up production further and even reactivate idled capacity. We continue to maintain our assertion that the market requires China to fully address its structural oversupply issue for any fundamental rebalancing of the market. The central issue is that so long as China has ample capacity to produce semis its smelters will have a ready outlet for primary metal.


What's included?

This report includes 11 file(s)

  • Global aluminium long-term outlook Q3 2016 PDF - 1.11 MB 104 Pages, 51 Tables, 37 Figures
  • Aluminium Tables Q3 2016.pdf PDF - 1.19 MB
  • Demand main changes aluminium LTO Q3 2016.xls XLS - 283.00 KB
  • Demand analysis aluminium LTO Q3 2016.xls XLS - 905.00 KB
  • Supply main changes aluminium LTO Q3 2016.xls XLS - 592.50 KB
  • Production rankings aluminium LTO Q3 2016.xls XLS - 473.50 KB
  • Smelter analysis aluminium LTO Q3 2016.xls XLS - 927.00 KB
  • Refinery analysis aluminium LTO Q3 2016.xls XLS - 618.50 KB
  • Mine analysis aluminium LTO Q3 2016.xls XLS - 418.00 KB
  • Market balance and prices aluminium LTO Q3 2016.xls XLS - 244.00 KB
  • Slide pack aluminium LTO Q3 2016.pdf PDF - 1.26 MB

Description

As global demand weakens and commodity prices fall, we're seeing a challenging environment in the metals and mining industry. Mining companies are increasingly coming under pressure to reduce operating costs, causing many to shift their strategic planning, delay new investments and look to long-term future growth.

This Aluminium Long Term Outlook report provides a detailed breakdown of global supply and demand balances in this market, as well as price forecasts.

Mining companies, investment banks and investors can use this report to understand the future direction of the ferrous and base metals market. It will also help you assess the impact of key industry issues and events on market balances and pricing.

From acquisitions to investments, Wood Mackenzie helps you plan, forecast and benchmark in the metals markets. Our proprietary database and analyst expertise combines robust production, consumption and pricing data with detailed analysis to identify market opportunities.

We give you a holistic view of the ferrous and base metals markets so you have the confidence to make strategic decisions.

  • Executive summary
  • Demand
    • Overview
      • Contribution to global primary demand growth by region, 2015 and 2035 (Mt)
    • Forecasts by region
      • Asia
      • China
        • Chinese primary aluminium consumption (Mt and year-on-year % growth)
      • Asia (ex-China)
        • India
        • Thailand
        • Indonesia
      • The Middle East
      • Europe
      • North America
        • Aleris global capacity by asset
  • Supply
    • Smelter production and capacity
      • Summary
      • Smelter production changes since Q2 2016 and forecasts
      • Global smelter production and capacity 2015-2035
      • Africa
      • North America
      • Latin America
      • Middle East
      • Asia
        • China’s production to continue growing at a slower rate
      • Elsewhere in Asia
      • Europe
      • Russia and the Caspian
      • Oceania
    • Refinery production and capacity
      • Summary
      • Refinery production changes since Q2 2016 and forecasts
      • Global refinery production and capacity 2015-2035
      • Africa
      • North America
      • Latin America
      • Middle East
      • Asia
      • Europe
      • Russia and the Caspian
      • Oceania
    • Bauxite Production
    • Regional focus
      • Africa
      • Latin America
      • Middle East
      • Asia
        • Other Asia
      • Europe
      • Russia and the Caspian
      • Oceania
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Aluminium market review and outlook
      • Global supply-demand balance, LME cash prices and stocks in days of consumption

In this report there are 88 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
  • Demand
    • Global primary aluminium consumption (Mt)
    • Primary aluminium demand by region 2010 - 2035
    • Demand: Image 2
    • Demand: Image 3
    • Demand: Image 4
    • Main changes to primary aluminium consumption forecast Q2 2016 vs Q3 2016 (kt)
    • Asia primary aluminium consumption kt
    • Demand: Table 4
    • Chinese share of consumption by sector
    • Contribution to Chinese primary demand growth by end-use sector, 2015 and 2035
    • Demand: Image 7
    • China construction completions by category.
    • China passenger car output by type
    • Aluminium consumption and consumption per capita, 2013-2035 (Mt and kg/capita)
    • India transmission line completion
    • India consumer durables split
    • Middle Eastern primary aluminium consumption (Mt and year-on year % growth)
    • Iran population by age group
    • European primary aluminium consumption (Mt and year-on year % growth)
    • Capacity and production of automotive sheet in Europe
    • European car production
    • Construction output in Europe
    • North American primary aluminium consumption (Mt and year-on year % growth)
    • North American consumption by industry
    • North American automotive sheet capacity and production
    • North American consumption forecast by product
    • Demand: Table 8
  • Supply
    • China’s increasingly competitive portfolio of smelter assets
    • Projected Non-China aluminium production increases, 2016-2019, (kt)
    • Global and ROW smelter capacity utilisation, 2007-2025
    • Contributions to 8 Mtpa aluminium supply growth, 2015-2019
    • Revisions to Q2 2016 forecasts (kt)
    • Global aluminium production 2015-2018, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
    • Africa aluminium production 2015-2019, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
    • North America aluminium production 2015-2019, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
    • Latin America aluminium production 2015-2019, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
    • Middle East aluminium production 2015-2019, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
    • China’s increasingly competitive portfolio of smelter assets
    • China’s smelter restarts in 2016 has been modest, (kt)
    • China’s planned 2016 new smelter capacity schedule, (kt)
    • Supply: Image 5
    • Main contributors to Chinese aluminium production increases, 2015-2019 (kt/a)
    • Asia aluminium production 2015-2019, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
    • Europe aluminium production 2015-2019, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
    • Russia and the Caspian aluminium production 2015-2019, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
    • Oceania aluminium production 2015-2018, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
    • Currently curtailed refineries that are at risk
    • Actual and required refinery capacity utilisation, 2005-2025
    • Global alumina capacity and demand, 2005-2035
    • Revisions to Q2 2016 forecast, (kt)
    • Global alumina production 2015-2019, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
    • Africa alumina production 2015-2019, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
    • Contributions to 17 Mtpa alumina supply growth before adjustments, 2015-2019
    • North America alumina production 2015-2019, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
    • Latin America alumina production 2015-2019, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
    • Middle East alumina production 2015-2019, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
    • Asia alumina production 2015-2019, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
    • Chinese alumina production increases, 2015-2019 (kt/a)
    • Europe alumina production 2015-2019, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
    • Russia and the Caspian alumina production 2015-2019, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
    • Oceania alumina production 2015-2018, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
    • Total bauxite supply and demand, Mt
    • Global metallurgical bauxite requirement 2015-2021, 2025, 2035 (Mt)
    • Base case global bauxite supply 2015-2021, 2025, 2035 (Mt)
    • Africa bauxite production 2015-2019,2020,2025,2030
    • Latin America and Caribbean bauxite production 2015-2019,2020,2025,2030
    • Middle East bauxite production 2015-2019,2020,2025,2030
    • Asia bauxite production 2015-2019,2020,2025,2030
    • Chinese bauxite production by province, 1990-2021 (Mt)
    • Chinese stocks of imported bauxite, 2006-2016, Mt and weeks' equivalent
    • Atlantic Seaborne supply & demand (before adj), 2010-2030, Mt
    • Indo-Pacific Seaborne supply & demand (before adj), 2010-2030, Mt
    • Europe bauxite production 2015-2019,2020,2025,2030
    • Russian and Caspian bauxite production 2015-2019,2020,2025,2030
    • Oceania bauxite production 2015-2019,2020,2025,2030
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Supply-demand balances: Image 1
    • Supply-demand balances: Table 1
    • Supply-demand balances: Table 2
    • Supply-demand balances: Table 3
    • 2016 Chinese bauxite requirement split (%)
    • 2030 Chinese bauxite requirement split (%)
    • Supply-demand balances: Table 4
    • Supply-demand balances: Table 5
    • Historical and equilibrium alumina prices (2016 US$/t)
    • Historical and equilibrium aluminium prices (2016 US$/t)
    • Supply-demand balances: Table 6
    • Supply-demand balances: Table 7
    • Supply-demand balances: Table 8
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