The aluminium metal market service long term outlook (LTO) is published quarterly and provides a detailed forecast of aluminium supply and demand fundamentals out to 2035. Our latest assessment of market fundamentals points to a market in reasonable surplus until 2019. While the short term demand picture has improved slightly it will not be enough to counter continued growth in output both in China and the ROW. The risk to our forecast is that LME prices of around the $1 550/t $1 650/t level will not only keep ROW smelters in production but that low cost Chinese smelter operators will likely be incentivised to ramp up production further and even reactivate idled capacity. We continue to maintain our assertion that the market requires China to fully address its structural oversupply issue for any fundamental rebalancing of the market. The central issue is that so long as China has ample capacity to produce semis its smelters will have a ready outlet for primary metal.