Commodity Market Report
Global aluminium long-term outlook Q3 2016
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Report summary
The aluminium metal market service long term outlook (LTO) is published quarterly and provides a detailed forecast of aluminium supply and demand fundamentals out to 2035. Our latest assessment of market fundamentals points to a market in reasonable surplus until 2019. While the short term demand picture has improved slightly it will not be enough to counter continued growth in output, both in China and the ROW. The risk to our forecast is that LME prices of around the $1,550/t - $1,650/t level will not only keep ROW smelters in production, but that low cost Chinese smelter operators will likely be incentivised to ramp-up production further and even reactivate idled capacity. We continue to maintain our assertion that the market requires China to fully address its structural oversupply issue for any fundamental rebalancing of the market. The central issue is that so long as China has ample capacity to produce semis its smelters will have a ready outlet for primary metal.
What's included
This report contains
Table of contents
- Executive summary
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Demand
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Overview
- Contribution to global primary demand growth by region, 2015 and 2035 (Mt)
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Forecasts by region
- Asia
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China
- Chinese primary aluminium consumption (Mt and year-on-year % growth)
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Asia (ex-China)
- India
- Thailand
- Indonesia
- The Middle East
- Europe
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North America
- Aleris global capacity by asset
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Overview
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Supply
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Smelter production and capacity
- Summary
- Smelter production changes since Q2 2016 and forecasts
- Global smelter production and capacity 2015-2035
- Africa
- North America
- Latin America
- Middle East
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Asia
- China’s production to continue growing at a slower rate
- Elsewhere in Asia
- Europe
- Russia and the Caspian
- Oceania
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Refinery production and capacity
- Summary
- Refinery production changes since Q2 2016 and forecasts
- Global refinery production and capacity 2015-2035
- Africa
- North America
- Latin America
- Middle East
- Asia
- Europe
- Russia and the Caspian
- Oceania
- Bauxite Production
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Regional focus
- Africa
- Latin America
- Middle East
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Asia
- Other Asia
- Europe
- Russia and the Caspian
- Oceania
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Smelter production and capacity
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Supply-demand balances
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Aluminium market review and outlook
- Global supply-demand balance, LME cash prices and stocks in days of consumption
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Aluminium market review and outlook
Tables and charts
This report includes 88 images and tables including:
Tables
- Global primary aluminium consumption (Mt)
- Global metallurgical bauxite requirement 2015-2021, 2025, 2035 (Mt)
- Base case global bauxite supply 2015-2021, 2025, 2035 (Mt)
- Main changes to primary aluminium consumption forecast Q2 2016 vs Q3 2016 (kt)
- Asia primary aluminium consumption kt
- Middle Eastern primary aluminium consumption (Mt and year-on year % growth)
- European primary aluminium consumption (Mt and year-on year % growth)
- North American primary aluminium consumption (Mt and year-on year % growth)
- Projected Non-China aluminium production increases, 2016-2019, (kt)
- Revisions to Q2 2016 forecasts (kt)
- Global aluminium production 2015-2018, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
- Africa aluminium production 2015-2019, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
- North America aluminium production 2015-2019, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
- Latin America aluminium production 2015-2019, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
- Middle East aluminium production 2015-2019, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
- China’s smelter restarts in 2016 has been modest, (kt)
- China’s planned 2016 new smelter capacity schedule, (kt)
- Asia aluminium production 2015-2019, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
- Europe aluminium production 2015-2019, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
- Russia and the Caspian aluminium production 2015-2019, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
- Oceania aluminium production 2015-2018, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
- Currently curtailed refineries that are at risk
- Revisions to Q2 2016 forecast, (kt)
- Global alumina production 2015-2019, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
- Africa alumina production 2015-2019, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
- North America alumina production 2015-2019, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
- Latin America alumina production 2015-2019, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
- Middle East alumina production 2015-2019, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
- Asia alumina production 2015-2019, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
- Chinese alumina production increases, 2015-2019 (kt/a)
- Europe alumina production 2015-2019, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
- Russia and the Caspian alumina production 2015-2019, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
- Oceania alumina production 2015-2018, 2020, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
- Africa bauxite production 2015-2019,2020,2025,2030
- Latin America and Caribbean bauxite production 2015-2019,2020,2025,2030
- Middle East bauxite production 2015-2019,2020,2025,2030
- Asia bauxite production 2015-2019,2020,2025,2030
- Europe bauxite production 2015-2019,2020,2025,2030
- Russian and Caspian bauxite production 2015-2019,2020,2025,2030
- Oceania bauxite production 2015-2019,2020,2025,2030
- Supply-demand balances: Table 1
- Supply-demand balances: Table 2
- Supply-demand balances: Table 3
- Supply-demand balances: Table 4
- Supply-demand balances: Table 5
- Supply-demand balances: Table 6
- Supply-demand balances: Table 7
- Supply-demand balances: Table 8
- Demand: Table 4
- Demand: Table 8
- Main contributors to Chinese aluminium production increases, 2015-2019 (kt/a)
Images
- Primary aluminium demand by region 2010 - 2035
- Total bauxite supply and demand, Mt
- Demand: Image 2
- Demand: Image 3
- Demand: Image 4
- Iran population by age group
- Capacity and production of automotive sheet in Europe
- European car production
- Construction output in Europe
- North American consumption by industry
- North American automotive sheet capacity and production
- North American consumption forecast by product
- China’s increasingly competitive portfolio of smelter assets
- Global and ROW smelter capacity utilisation, 2007-2025
- Contributions to 8 Mtpa aluminium supply growth, 2015-2019
- China’s increasingly competitive portfolio of smelter assets
- Supply: Image 5
- Actual and required refinery capacity utilisation, 2005-2025
- Global alumina capacity and demand, 2005-2035
- Contributions to 17 Mtpa alumina supply growth before adjustments, 2015-2019
- Chinese bauxite production by province, 1990-2021 (Mt)
- Chinese stocks of imported bauxite, 2006-2016, Mt and weeks' equivalent
- Atlantic Seaborne supply & demand (before adj), 2010-2030, Mt
- Indo-Pacific Seaborne supply & demand (before adj), 2010-2030, Mt
- Supply-demand balances: Image 1
- 2016 Chinese bauxite requirement split (%)
- 2030 Chinese bauxite requirement split (%)
- Historical and equilibrium alumina prices (2016 US$/t)
- Historical and equilibrium aluminium prices (2016 US$/t)
- Chinese share of consumption by sector
- Contribution to Chinese primary demand growth by end-use sector, 2015 and 2035
- Demand: Image 7
- China construction completions by category.
- China passenger car output by type
- Aluminium consumption and consumption per capita, 2013-2035 (Mt and kg/capita)
- India transmission line completion
- India consumer durables split
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